1. #1
    Hman
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    UFC 221 Betting Guide

    How to bet UFC 221
    Reed Kuhn
    ESPN INSIDER

    It's not the middleweight title fight we were hoping for. Nor does it involve Robert Whittaker or Georges St-Pierre, the last two men to win a middleweight title fight. But as far as a replacement matchup for an interim title goes, Luke Rockhold vs. Yoel Romero makes for a compelling and competitive main event. Appropriately, it's right in line with the last two middleweight title fights as far as the betting market is concerned.

    The trouble for the pay-per-view market is the rest of the card. A major UFC event held internationally always gets loaded with regional talent at the cost of star power for the U.S. market. However, while going head-to-head with opening weekend of the Olympics may mean conceding some market share in the northern hemisphere, choosing Perth, Australia, for the event may have been wise given the lower local interest in the Winter Games. There's no doubt the UFC's first visit to Perth will have the stadium popping.

    With an undercard offering a mix of veterans and newcomers, only the top two fights will have serious implications on the rankings. We'll look at those two fights in detail to see if there's betting value in these relatively tight lines.

    Heavyweight: #5 Mark Hunt (-140) vs. #9 Curtis Blaydes (-160)


    Mark Hunt has been a heavyweight anchorman since the PRIDE days of 2004, and yet here he is occupying the marquee of a UFC event in 2018. That's for two reasons: his striking and his durability. Trained as a kickboxer, the New Zealand-born Hunt is dangerous in a firefight with anyone, despite always being the outsized and outranged striker. He has one-punch knockout power on par with the best heavyweights, and when outhustled, he has enough durability to make opponents work for it.

    The lack of a ground attack makes him one-dimensional, but notably he's improved his takedown defense in recent years, at least making grappling less of a liability.

    Blaydes appears to be a polar opposite, and not just on account of being born in the northern hemisphere. He's tall, rangy and still in his twenties. And though a relative rookie in the UFC, he's shown the strong wrestling base that has carried him despite his less-than-technical striking. He has spent 27 percent of all Octagon minutes on the mat and in control. There are stark contrasts in nearly every aspect of this fight.

    Insider recommends: The youth advantage for Blaydes of nearly 17 years is one of the steepest in UFC history, and immediately worth of an edge. Despite Hunt's experience and technical striking advantages, three rounds of pressure and wrestling from Blaydes is the likeliest path to victory. Assuming, of course, he doesn't eat a huge uppercut on the way in. A straight play on Blaydes at mild favorite odds is reasonable, as is the over 1.5 rounds at -180, or a small prop on Blaydes by decision at close to even money.


    Interim middleweight championship: #1 Yoel Romero (+130) vs. #2 Luke Rockhold (-140)

    The main event will offer another stylistic contrast, but one that is likely to be fought on the feet rather than in a transitional struggle. Luke Rockhold is a technical double threat, combining an arsenal of long-range striking with a submission-centric grappling game. Offensively, he scores well and has finishing potential, as long as he's in control of the striking range or gets ground control.

    But Romero fights more by power and aggression than by skill. He rarely utilizes his Olympic-level wrestling base, instead opting to slug it out with opponents on the feet, which usually has ended well for him. His offensive striking has been precise and overwhelmingly powerful. Just shy of 80 percent of all of his standing head strikers are with power, as opposed to just 20 percent jabs. That steep mix means opponents have to be very careful trading leather. And they are often forced to, as Romero clearly has the hips to keep a fight standing.

    Rockhold has a path to victory on the feet by using his range and kicking game, but speed and elusiveness will be critical. He doesn't simply want to stand in the pocket while Romero swings for the fences. Either man is capable of knocking out the other, but Rockhold gets the edge if he fights up to his ability, and is smarter than he has been in the past.

    Insider recommends: When Rockhold opened at +150, there was plenty of value on him. With his price now having risen to -140 through steady one-sided action, little or no value remains. The question now is which way the line will move as fight time approaches, as significant movement in either direction would offer some small value. It could go either way, and we agree in a close to coin-flip matchup with Rockhold having a slight edge. The safer play is the over 1.5 rounds at -175, as both men should be cautious early about entering the danger zones of the other, especially given that each lost their first chance at a UFC title.

  2. #2
    Hman
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    Posting this per request.
    No opinion on the material.

  3. #3
    big joe 1212
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    How much do these PPV’s cost these days? $50? I can’t see paying anything to watch these fights.

  4. #4
    HurryUpAndDrink
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    I love Hunt and Rockhold here

  5. #5
    funnyb25
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    Waste of money for sure ordering this one

  6. #6
    jjgold
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    I quit betting that sport once it became rigged and odds were offered

    They make peanuts so have to rig many matches to make money

  7. #7
    HurlSweatPants
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    I quit betting that sport once it became rigged and odds were offered

    They make peanuts so have to rig many matches to make money
    Totally rigged. I think the most rigged fight I ever saw was Lawler v Macdonald. What a fake fest.

  8. #8
    mrpapageorgio
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    Quote Originally Posted by big joe 1212 View Post
    How much do these PPV’s cost these days? $50? I can’t see paying anything to watch these fights.
    By me it's $60 if you want the HD broadcast. $50 for standard.

  9. #9
    BIGDAY
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  10. #10
    Richard Clock
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    Quote Originally Posted by big joe 1212 View Post
    How much do these PPV’s cost these days? $50? I can’t see paying anything to watch these fights.
    It really depends on what you are looking for in an MMA event. It doesn't deliver on the big name fights, but has a lot of intriguing matchups with the potential for violence: Romero/Rockhold, Formiga/Nguyen, Kim/Brown, Matthews/Leech, Blaydes/Hunt. Also, the chance to see some intriguing prospects that could develop into bigger names : Pedro, Israel, Tuivasa, Blaydes and Volkanovski

  11. #11
    big joe 1212
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    I usually try to stream these on my “box”

    usually works pretty good but a little delayed and sometimes freezes for a few moments

  12. #12
    big joe 1212
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    Did you post your picks yet?

    I need some some winners to find my upcoming Vegas trip

  13. #13
    TPowell
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    Not a great betting card on this event but Damien Brown (Scorecards No Action) is probably my favorite, as well as Brown +3.5 (-165)

  14. #14
    Sam Losco
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    i dont mind paying for ppvs, but theres no way id pay for this one. it should be a fight night with this lineup

  15. #15
    BIGDAY
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    Quote Originally Posted by big joe 1212 View Post
    Did you post your picks yet?

    I need some some winners to find my upcoming Vegas trip
    Tonights card.
    Points Awarded:

    Hugo de Naranja gave BIGDAY 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  16. #16
    funnyb25
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    4-1 for BIGDAY

    Profit!

  17. #17
    Pinoy-T-X
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    My picks
    also dropping a parlay for fun 1u to win 9u

    Hunt/Blaydess OVER 1.5 rounds
    Volkanovski
    Adesanya
    Pedro
    Tuivasa
    Quionez

    BOL tonight amigos
    Points Awarded:

    Hugo de Naranja gave Pinoy-T-X 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  18. #18
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pinoy-T-X View Post
    My picks
    also dropping a parlay for fun 1u to win 9u

    Hunt/Blaydess OVER 1.5 rounds
    Volkanovski
    Adesanya
    Pedro
    Tuivasa
    Quionez

    BOL tonight amigos
    Best of luck Pinoy!
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Pinoy-T-X

  19. #19
    funnyb25
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    Pony is back!!
    Points Awarded:

    Pinoy-T-X gave funnyb25 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  20. #20
    Pinoy-T-X
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pinoy-T-X View Post
    My picks
    also dropping a parlay for fun 1u to win 9u

    Hunt/Blaydess OVER 1.5 rounds WIN
    Volkanovski WIN
    Adesanya WIN
    Pedro WIN
    Tuivasa WIN
    Quinonez WIN

    BOL tonight amigos
    BOOM SHAKALA

    6-0
    also a Parlay win
    Last edited by Pinoy-T-X; 02-10-18 at 10:54 PM.
    Points Awarded:

    ChuckyTheGoat gave Pinoy-T-X 11 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    Hugo de Naranja gave Pinoy-T-X 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  21. #21
    HurryUpAndDrink
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pinoy-T-X View Post
    BOOM SHAKALA

    6-0
    also a Parlay win
    OK seriously, fukk it IDK you man but Im fukkin sold. I suck at MMA capping.

    Keep posting this good shit, Ill tail blindly

  22. #22
    gauchojake
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    Romero with a bitch move

  23. #23
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pinoy-T-X View Post
    BOOM SHAKALA

    6-0
    also a Parlay win
    Holy fook, sent u some pts for your big showing. What odds did the parlay pay?

  24. #24
    Pinoy-T-X
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    Quote Originally Posted by HurryUpAndDrink View Post
    OK seriously, fukk it IDK you man but Im fukkin sold. I suck at MMA capping.

    Keep posting this good shit, Ill tail blindly
    i just got lucky man, thanks for the props.
    I’ll post some of my picks this coming weekend.

  25. #25
    HurryUpAndDrink
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Holy fook, sent u some pts for your big showing. What odds did the parlay pay?
    +900
    Points Awarded:

    Pinoy-T-X gave HurryUpAndDrink 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  26. #26
    Pinoy-T-X
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Holy fook, sent u some pts for your big showing. What odds did the parlay pay?
    One unit to win nine units.
    thanks Chucky!
    Last edited by Pinoy-T-X; 02-10-18 at 11:55 PM.

  27. #27
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pinoy-T-X View Post
    My picks
    also dropping a parlay for fun 1u to win 9u

    Hunt/Blaydess OVER 1.5 rounds
    Volkanovski
    Adesanya
    Pedro
    Tuivasa
    Quionez

    BOL tonight amigos

    Square plays but glad you cashed

  28. #28
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pinoy-T-X View Post
    BOOM SHAKALA

    6-0
    also a Parlay win
    Boom! Great job Pinoy.

  29. #29
    Pinoy-T-X
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    Thanks guys. glad everybody had a great night. Let’s do it again next weekend.

  30. #30
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pinoy-T-X View Post
    One unit to win nine units.
    thanks Chucky!
    Congratulations. Savor this moment. Doesn't happen too often.

  31. #31
    Pinoy-T-X
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Congratulations. Savor this moment. Doesn't happen too often.
    I agree. Cheers mate

  32. #32
    Hman
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    Great job Pinoy (and anyone else who profited)
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Pinoy-T-X

  33. #33
    sweep
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    Quote Originally Posted by HurryUpAndDrink View Post
    I love Hunt and Rockhold here
    Buried

  34. #34
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by sweep View Post
    Buried
    http://lh4.ggpht.com/-zsfuIe60D9I/Tm...gif?imgmax=800


  35. #35
    Richard Clock
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    Square plays but glad you cashed
    Congrats, but paying the chalk like this will catch up to you

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