They are always spot on. Very odd. For example the Spurs just covered the first half
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12-08-17 09:41 PM #1
How do books know NBA lines so good?
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12-08-17 10:00 PM #2
Lots more data collected and able to parse... I imagine they are running lots of data centers with artificial intelligence to pick the lines and then probably review them by experts. That is my guess at least.
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12-08-17 10:06 PM #3
cannot beat them
I love guys that think lines are off on some games
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12-08-17 10:13 PM #4
Well some lines are intentionally off that is where artificial intelligence comes in. It can also pick whether people will bet largely on a bigger favorite spread then a dog. It can analyze betting history of the public and where money is going. For example I’m guessing most people took New Orleans or Charlotte tonight. I don’t know that for sure but the line could be set even larger on the public convincing them it’s going to be a blow out. Also, same can be done with setting a favorite lower to intentionally make it look fishy to get people to bet the dog. Even if the intelligence thinks differently about what the games really will be. I think this is why sometimes team totals don’t really match spread or they don’t match game over under. Anyhow that’s my 2 cents on it
Originally Posted by jjgold
Points Awarded:
RavensFan2k3 gave jeffchitown 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: RavensFan2k3
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12-08-17 10:24 PM #5
Higher quality dartboard
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12-08-17 10:24 PM #6
maths and statistics is a powerful force in the universe
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12-09-17 04:32 AM #7
all lines are all accurate and all sports
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12-09-17 08:23 AM #8
This statistician sells his numbers to Vegas, and Vegas adjusts to test the waters, eventually going back to these following numbers: Washington 4.91`LA Clippers 0.671 203Miami 5.91`Brooklyn 0.708 242
Charlotte 3.14 LA Lakers 0.578 137
Orlando 2.88`Atlanta 0.584 140
Cleveland 1.25 Philadelphia 0.507 102
New York 5.11`Chicago 0.679 211
Milwaukee 0.12 Utah 0.500 100
San Antonio 9.25`Phoenix 0.791 378
Oklahoma City 12.63`Memphis 0.865 639
Houston 7.49`Portland 0.754 306
totals
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LA Clippers 211.03 Washington
Brooklyn 212.73 Miami
Charlotte 211.70 LA Lakers
Atlanta 212.06 Orlando
Cleveland 219.50 Philadelphia
Chicago 201.13 New York
Milwaukee 202.63 Utah
Phoenix 213.94 San Antonio
Memphis 194.17 Oklahoma City
Portland 212.79 Houston
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12-09-17 08:39 AM #9
Let's face it, oddsmakers know their stuff.
But.....Could it be that they get so many lines close to the final result, simply because they crank out so many day after day?
j
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12-09-17 08:51 AM #10
on an average day with an average number of games, it's all about the averages.
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12-09-17 09:16 AM #11
NBA numbers are the most solid of any sport which is why I quit toying with it
They have consistent data month in and month out and also have the public sentiment down to a science
They have the best saber number guys in the business firing off these numbers and over the long term it's just not worth banging my head each night trying to get my 2 or 3% ROI out of it
Even that hoop head that designed the computer program "Ewing" has to keep adjusting and from what I understand is down quite a bit so far this year
Only way to find a number that is off is to know something they don't like an unknown injury or a team that isn't going to give 100% which again is few and far between
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12-09-17 09:24 AM #12
80% of NBA bets = 1st Qts
Am validated
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12-09-17 09:51 AM #13
College hoops top 25 are dead on too
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12-09-17 09:54 AM #14
Good luck finding out about an "unknown injury" before the books. They're on top of that stuff, guaranteed. Agree with the second one though, gotta isolate when teams actually will/won't show up, and more importantly, find such spots the books have not adjusted the spread for accurately. NBA betting is all situational, 100%. Originally Posted by RangeFinder
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12-09-17 11:07 AM #15
NBA is worst sport to bet by far as the lines are too sharp. Too many games, injuries, players and teams don't give a shit. college basketball similar for big conferences until March Madness when the betting volume picks up and public can swing lines. At least in NFL and College Football you can grab key numbers / spots if you bet early enough
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12-09-17 11:09 AM #16
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12-09-17 11:42 AM #17
It's not impossible but the books are pretty scary when it comes to predicting the lines. For e.g. for Totals in 2015 -2016 the actual total points average was 205.92; the books total line avg was 205.62; so a difference of 0.3 for 1230 games. This season so far the avg books line is at 211.22 while the actual score avg is 211.06, a diff of 0.16
That's the type margin we have to work with...
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12-09-17 04:18 PM #18
Bullshit. The point spread on the NBA is off more than 7pts in half the games. You think that's accurate?! "They" don't know, and that's what makes it so intruiging.
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12-09-17 04:21 PM #19
When I first started, many moons ago, I used to think the odds were way off at the start of the season and got sharper as the season progressed with (as posters above say) the statisticians going to work. Then I did a test and found the accuracy from one part of the season to the next is only the slightest bit more on point.
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12-09-17 04:26 PM #20
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12-09-17 05:06 PM #21
Did you see the ending of the clips game? Originally Posted by IBetYou
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12-09-17 05:12 PM #22
correct title should be
How do books know the nba lines so WELL?
you are welcome
Rudy
PhD English
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12-09-17 05:15 PM #23
I have a database of 20,000 games that I'm basing my information on. Originally Posted by lakerboy
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12-09-17 05:31 PM #24
The clock operator at Staples started the clock too soon on the inbound play for Washington. Beal's shot would of been awfully close. Originally Posted by lakerboy
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12-09-17 06:07 PM #25
Lol............................
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12-09-17 06:29 PM #26
Will do better next time sir rudy Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger
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12-09-17 06:44 PM #27
Couple texts from players,coaches......last 2 min....Don't play the No Bank Account league,gl
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12-09-17 07:13 PM #28
I understand what your are saying but for me it always seems that I get screwed by a half point either way Originally Posted by IBetYou
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12-09-17 07:14 PM #29
They might be good but the're not perfect as I would
of never spotted this game and many others before it..........
Why does odds makers keep putting the Bobkit
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12-09-17 07:18 PM #30
I had Spurs first half last night and it was a push for me.
It was an awesome push though.
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12-09-17 07:30 PM #31
That’s why they have the disclaimer....for entertainment purposes only...
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12-09-17 07:35 PM #32
Vegas and the NBA leauge are bed partners.
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12-09-17 09:24 PM #33
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12-09-17 09:26 PM #34
was breaking even/slightly losing betting openers. now i just bet dogs live
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12-10-17 07:59 AM #35
Not hard to figure out. Study SBR odds. Add and subtract offence, defence from both teams. Add in home field
or injuries and revenge factors. You can get pretty close to their lines. Usually the opening lines are math figured,
then the public changes it during the day.
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