[Thicht]

Here is my steam strategy. If follow for example 56% NBA total player and get 2 point worse is Expected Value to subtract value of points? So if point estimate of total at 2.3% in NBA (general idea on SBR calculator) is that 56 - 2.3%(2) = 51.4%?

Is 2.3% estimate of NBA total good? Can anyone know value of point in NBA half- I search and cannot find this.

I want to know math of why I losing so badly.



Thicht

[jjgold]

stop

Those +EV plays get buried now

Well it possible could work over 5 year period but only small and not worth the silly risk

Sports are so unpredictable now all those theories mean nothing and nobody knows what line is really the right market price

It is not pinnacle anymore ..flips flops between many books

[KVB]

There's a reason for all that Mr. Gold. Understanding that back drop makes it easier to approach.

Also, I've argued many times that the market isn't as efficient as many believe. There are still ways to beat the market because it's just that, a market.

It's also why I use different gauges and forecasts representing types of money; to see which way the market is heading by following the flow of money. It's also one of the reasons I've developed short term metrics based on long term success; nothing's perfect and there is risk, and loss.

In the end, it's not about predicting sports, it's about predicting the market with disciplined money management. If you're still trying to predict sports, then it's going to be a difficult road to success.