[Optional]

Practice 1 Friday 11am ET
P2 Fri 3pm
P3 Sat 11am
Quali Sat 2pm
Race Sun 2pm

Only two races on this track and Mercedes have taken front row in quali and one/two finishes by a long way both years.

Red Bull has been closest to them both times.

Think I will do the same as last race and put a few units on Lewis 1.80 (-120) early as expect he will end up at -200 or worse like last week quickly.


Not sure if the linesmen have not done their research this week or I am out of wack, as the odds are all over the shop in my mind.

Ricciardo should be a lot more than 8.00 (+700) to win as we already know he will have to take a grid penalty for new engine parts.

And why are Bottas and Raikkonen 5 times higher odds than their team mates? Bottas maybe but Kimi was actually faster than Vettel in the USA. I guess it's pretty sure Kimi would let Vettel past if it leaves him with any chance of catching Lewis for the championship still but still... +2000 is weird next to +275 for Seb with both Red Bulls down in single figures too. Books obviouslty think the Red Bull will be close to the ferrari this week.

No odds for fast lap yet but I suggest grabbing Kimi if his fast lap odds reflect his win odds. (anything above +1200 is great value for him here I think) and Also grab Dan Ricciardo for fast lap too. He took it last year by a mile and think it will be on his mind again.

One last long shot I might try is Verstappen for pole. Just small but the odds should be quite high. Had him in USA at +1650 and if can get that number again will be all over it on this track. Any sign of rain and he should be an awesome chance at it.

[jjgold]

I thought this sport folded 5 years ago

[funnyb25]

Why so many practices? Seems like more opportunities for wrecks before the qualifying and race?

[Optional]

I thought this sport folded 5 years ago

An American company bought Formula1 starting this year.

You'll be hearing a lot more about it from now on.

[Optional]

Why so many practices? Seems like more opportunities for wrecks before the qualifying and race?

Tradition mostly. I agree could be shortened.

New American owners already talking about dropping Friday altogether.

They've made more change this year than happened in the last 15 years under Bernie Eccelstone. Good ones mostly so far too.

[Otters27]

Sounds cool. I'll watch

[milwaukee mike]

An American company bought Formula1 starting this year.

You'll be hearing a lot more about it from now on.

i doubt we'll hear much more about it

nobody even cares about nascar these days, let alone indy car or F1

especially when hamilton is over a 50/50 favorite to win every race, and there's no real excitement in them... also way too many goofy rules about stuff like tires

[milwaukee mike]

nascar monster cup races 3 million viewers
nascar xfinity races 1 million viewers
indycar/f1 about 500,000 viewers

nfl 10 million
judge judy 9 million

so in an week with a formula 1 race (5 episodes of judge judy) there are 90 episodes of judge judy watched for every person that watches the formula 1 race

[Optional]

Sounds like good room for growth?

Pretty sure you will be wondering why so much of it is in the media in a year or two.

[semibluff]

I concur with Optional about Daniel Ricciardo's chances. I wouldn't have backed either Red Bull driver going into the US Grand Prix because the team had already said both drivers would be taking penalties in the last 4 races. Ricciardo should have taken the hit in the US like his teammate did. (They both should have taken the hit in Belgium, but that's a different issue). I run the sportsbook on an NFL fans board for the equivalent of Betpoints and I opened Ricciardo at +6600. There's no cash involved and I work to ridiculously small margins. I wouldn't expect an actual book to be nearly that brave. Bookie rule of thumb: Open other drivers as though you expect a Ricciardo penalty but open Ricciardo as though he won't. It's the safe move and it's why books are opening this event at 123.6% rather than their normal 116.6% on the big 6.

If you can get Max Verstappen at +600 then grab it while you can. He's generally between +400 and +550 with European books. Other than that I see no value in the race winner or podium finish odds.

[Roadtrip635]

nascar monster cup races 3 million viewers
nascar xfinity races 1 million viewers
indycar/f1 about 500,000 viewers

nfl 10 million
judge judy 9 million

so in an week with a formula 1 race (5 episodes of judge judy) there are 90 episodes of judge judy watched for every person that watches the formula 1 race

F1 Racing averages 80 million viewers per race worldwide, there's a ton of money in F1.

[semibluff]

Why so many practices? Seems like more opportunities for wrecks before the qualifying and race?

It's split over 3 days. The idea is to practice on Friday. Qualifying is a day later so you can rebuild the car if you have a problem on Friday. The race is a day later so again you can rebuild if you crash. A big part of it is ticket sales for 3 days rather than 2. Teams don't have to use all the practice time. Without 3 different sessions there would be a problem of losing time to adverse weather conditions. Bear in mind there's very limited in-season testing. If you bring new upgrades to the car you need track time to evaluate whether they work so you can figure out which direction future development should take.

I don't see the layout of practice sessions changing very much in the near future.

[5mike5]

follow Opti in this sport and make $$$$$$

period

[milwaukee mike]

F1 Racing averages 80 million viewers per race worldwide, there's a ton of money in F1.

yeah i'm not disputing the worldwide appeal, it's just not a big sport in the us

i watch the races if i have action on it, but they are still pretty boring with not a lot of passing

[Optional]

It looks like Fernando Alonso will be taking a starting grid penalty for new engine parts needed.

So he and Ricciardo will be starting near the rear of the field.

Best use for both is to take some fast lap money as they will very likely start the race on harder tires than the front runners and switch to softer ones when the front runners move to harder tires. Meaning if the fast lap is set soon after tire stops, Ricciardo should be a very good chance of nabbing it. And Alonso should be some chance too with a brand new spec Honda engine loaded in the back and same tire strategy.

Take into account that fast lap has been set near the end of the race more often than after final pit stops this year, and don't go big. But they will be good bets for fast lap.

Unfortunately the books have puckered their arses and got scared of this angle with Ricciardo and have made his odds an eye watering 4.50 (+350) so i wont be taking any of that for that for now. Will wait and hope he moves to more realistic +600 range.

I am throwing a half unit on Alonso for fast lap +3300 right now as expect those odds will get worse if anything.

If Verstappen practices as well as I expect he will 9.00 (+800) is likely to be the best fast lap odds we will see for him. Still tossing up how much to bet but think I'll take him now too.


Another Alonso issue is that he appears to be priced into the Top 10 market as if he has no penalty coming still. (which is valid as no penalty has been announced) And this leaves a hole in that market to take a longshot. A Williams, or Alonso's team mate VanDorne are most likely to 'replace' Alonso in the top 10 and are all attractive odds. I'm taking a unit on Vandorne Top 10 +137 myself.


Both Versatppen's win odds at 5.50 (+450) and Ricciardos Fast Lap odds at 4.50 (+350) are way too low for me to take right now but hoping as the weekend progresses we will gt better odds on both for those and I'll jump then.


One last thing.

If your book offers practice market betting there appears to be some value possibilities in Practice 1 odds this week. The books usually have Hamilton more like 1.80 (-120) for fastest in P1 but have opened with 2.62 (+162) this week. And I agree with them!

Just not sure who is best option but will be taking one of the long shots for fastest in P1 this race. Probably Verstappen and Perez.

[Optional]

Forgot to mention above. Kimi Raikkonen +1600 for fast lap is the best bet on the board right now.

Just take some. It's gift odds.

[Auto Donk]

mexican gran prix????

can't wait to see the souped up chato wagons that have the typical "mexican" features I see on hispanic cars around here.....

such as this fine spoiler/fin... it looks rather F1-ish:





or this speedy ride:





the tijuana especial:




vroom vroom:

[Optional]

I like that last one Donk

[Auto Donk]

traditional lowriders are nice....

my personal fav tho is the wooden spoiler -- that is a must have .....

[5mike5]

Forgot to mention above. Kimi Raikkonen +1600 for fast lap is the best bet on the board right now.

Just take some. It's gift odds.

added some "ICEMAN" fastest lap (+1600


last time he was this high was 40-1 and we nailed that bet for a huge win

maybe lightning strikes 2 times?!

[Auto Donk]

iceman?????





are they gonna oil up pre-race and play some volleyball?

[semibluff]

The market with the least juice is the top 10 finish market. European books average a total mark-up of just under 1100%, and they're paying out on 1000%. It's equivalent to a -109.5 line. In that context Ocon is very good value at -300. He has finished in the top 10 in 16 out of 17 races, (12th in the other).

[Optional]

The market with the least juice is the top 10 finish market. European books average a total mark-up of just under 1100%, and they're paying out on 1000%. It's equivalent to a -109.5 line. In that context Ocon is very good value at -300. He has finished in the top 10 in 16 out of 17 races, (12th in the other).

I'm thinking of fading Ocon this week. He has been receiving death threats from Mexcians unhappy with his battle with team mate Perez and from media reports it sounds like it is affecting him. He has body guards and security everywhere he moves.




Practice starts in 15 mins on NBCSN

It looks sunny and warm there. I've had a small bet on Verstappen to top first practice +450

He's fired up and angry with the media all asking him about his outburst complaining about the last lap penalty he got last race. Kid is wrong but refuses to back down.

Last time he was in this positon after multiple crashes with Kimi and Vettel last year he answered them on the track and expect this pressure will inspire him too.

Probably would be smart to take Vettel too at same odds... but I am being tight/greedy and just sticking with Max.

[semibluff]

Ocon's car was damaged in a crash, (by reserve driver Celis), in 1st practice. He shouldn't be backed until it's clear he won't face a gearbox penalty. Elsewhere Red Bull say Ricciardo WON'T have a new engine and the penalties that go with it. At least that's the plan, (but it could change after practice 2). If he doesn't take a new engine here he will need it next race. Both McLarens take big penalties and will start at the back, (pending any new penalties for others). It hurts their top 10 chances but probably makes them candidates to have a late pit stop and go for fastest lap.
Bottas was quickest from Hamilton. Both were on the Ultra tire. The Red Bulls were 3 and 4 on the Supers but only .5 seconds back. The track was predictably very dirty. No mention of rain for the weekend.

[JayLA]

Thanks Optional for sharing this with us. Forgive my ignorance as I dont know my way around F1 betting. What bets do we have as of now? When you say "fast lap" is that "fastest lap" in my book? thanks again

[5mike5]

Thanks Optional for sharing this with us. Forgive my ignorance as I dont know my way around F1 betting. What bets do we have as of now? When you say "fast lap" is that "fastest lap" in my book? thanks again

yes

[Optional]

Right idea but wrong other driver. Bottas got fastest in P1.

Dont have money in a book that offers practice 2 but would take Verstappen again if I did. He made a major change near end of P1 and expect he might be even better P2.

Both Red Bull and Ferrari ran the medium compound tires compared to Mercedes on the softest and time adjusted for that both would be ahead of Mercedes. Not sure why they didnt do a run on the softest. Frustrating.

Ferrari looked awesome on race run times that session btw. Vettel's best 3 sectors (on worn medium tires) was less than 5/10ths slower than Bottas. Think he looks great for the race. Verstappen looks good too.

[Optional]

Ocon's car was damaged in a crash, (by reserve driver Celis), in 1st practice. He shouldn't be backed until it's clear he won't face a gearbox penalty. Elsewhere Red Bull say Ricciardo WON'T have a new engine and the penalties that go with it. At least that's the plan, (but it could change after practice 2). If he doesn't take a new engine here he will need it next race. Both McLarens take big penalties and will start at the back, (pending any new penalties for others). It hurts their top 10 chances but probably makes them candidates to have a late pit stop and go for fastest lap.
Bottas was quickest from Hamilton. Both were on the Ultra tire. The Red Bulls were 3 and 4 on the Supers but only .5 seconds back. The track was predictably very dirty. No mention of rain for the weekend.

I agree with the red bull thing re Ricciardo. I think that is red bul just playing games with other teams and Dan will take a penalty.

Although after seeing P1 there are good reasons to avoid it if they possibly can! RBR look great.

P2 about to start... this should help us work out a bit more about the Ferrari/RedBull questions.

Thanks Optional for sharing this with us. Forgive my ignorance as I dont know my way around F1 betting. What bets do we have as of now? When you say "fast lap" is that "fastest lap" in my book? thanks again

Fast lap does = Fastest Lap

So far I have bet;

Verstappen Fastest in Practice 1 +450 (loss but would take again in P2 if i could)

Alonso Fastest Lap +3300
Verstappen Fastest Lap +900
Raikkonen Fastest Lap +1600

Verstappen Wins Pole +700


VanDorne Top 10 +137 (don't take this. His engine expired and he will be starting from the rear now)

[semibluff]

Red Bull were slightly quicker than Mercedes in P2. There was very little between the top 6 but there's a lot of sandbagging going on. Because each car is limited to 4 engines per year teams are using previously worn down engines in practice to keep their 'current', and hopefully last, good engine of the year for just the last 3 races. Thus P1 and P2 times are not representative of what the fresh and latest spec engine can do. Verstappen's P2 engine problem should be ignored. Supposedly Verstappen was trying 2018 trial parts on his car for P1 which is why the car balance and performance was off. The breakdown in P2 was oil pressure related, (same as Ricciardo in the US GP). Ricciardo is planning to keep his US GP engine for this race because the oil pressure didn't damage the engine and the reason for replacing it would be mileage, which it hasn't yet done because of the breakdown. Both Red Bulls are fast and show great race pace but reliability could well be an issue. I still like the Force Indias for a top 10 finish. I don't think Renault, Toro Roso, Williams, or Haas are better than them and there could be more than 4 top 10 spots open if the big 6 aren't reliable.

[Optional]

Practice 2

[Optional]

As initially expected Red Bull will change Riccardo's engine and he is starting from near the rear.

Not sure why they waited until after qualifying so he has to use those quali tyres at the start. But anyway, his best use is as a fast lap chance starting back there as mentioned in the OP.


Did not end betting as much as usual this week.

Good luck racing fans


Verstappen Win Race +225

Fastest Lap

Verstappen +800
Raikkonen +1600
Alonso +3300
Ricciardo +550


Gasley to beat Hartley +165 (Hartley copped a late penalty and books slow to adjust)

Ricciardo to beat Raikkonen +107 (taken before engine penalty grrr)

VanDOrne Top 10 +137 (taken before his engine expired and knew starts at rear)

[semibluff]

Not shocked with the Ricciardo engine change. The difference between him with an old engine and his teammate with a new engine was clear for all to see. I actually think he has a better chance to finish top 6/top 3 in this race now even with a 10 place penalty.

[Optional]

Not shocked with the Ricciardo engine change. The difference between him with an old engine and his teammate with a new engine was clear for all to see. I actually think he has a better chance to finish top 6/top 3 in this race now even with a 10 place penalty.

Yeah he didn't look very good at all in quali. You may be right.

I hope he can get back up there and past Kimi at least. Have that as last leg of a parlay with USC and Capitals yesterday so the payout is a big one.



Not sure if you are aware but the new engine Max took in USA (and the one Hulk took) are newer versions of the engine and supposed to give a noticably improvement in power curve. Renault only coiuld suply 1 of each to each team before end of year.

So Dan's new engine is still not as good as Maxs.


GL with your bets today

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Opti...how's the diet, pal?

[Optional]

Opti...how's the diet, pal?

Soup and salads leaking out my ears mate.




Well that was a frustrating ending. Got Verstappen as winner but he looked to have fastest lap locked up too until Vettel took it away and his team would not let him know, so he could have a shot at re-taking it.

Gassley > Hartley pays.

Vettel and Hamilton collided after the start and ruined both their races, but Verstappen had already over taken them and dont think he was going to beaten today no matter what. Ricciardo's car expired early in the race.

Made a profit for the race but not as much as I had hoped for, and it was looking like for a while there.