[DOM_Toretto]

Very disturbed by the Vegas massacre. Can't begin to imagine the guy's thoughts or fukked up justification in his fukked up head.

Gotta think positive today and turn to football. We got a good MNF matchup between the 2-1 Washington Redskins at the 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs.

Arrowhead will be loud and rocking for the MNF game trying to keep their team the only undefeated team in the NFL. Kareem Hunt is an absolute beast and will probably win Rookie of the Year.

With that said, I'm taking the REDSKINS +7.

This is a lot of points for this game. Redskins looked much improved last week and I wasn't surprised; I was waiting for Cousins to start gelling with his team and get the offense rolling. Chris Thompson looks like a legit offensive weapon. But most importantly the Skins Defense looked solid against a Raiders team with a good o-line & plenty of weapons.

Chiefs defense is legit but I think their offense has been operating at an artificially high, unsustainable level. Bottom line is Alex Smith is due to regress. He's due to regress to his career completion % which is 10% lower than current for the season. He's due to throw a pick which he hasn't yet this season. He's due to get sacked a lot tonight - especially with the banged up offensive line which will be without starting center and possibly starting left tackle.

Washington Redskins +7

[Gooleez21]

Meh. Post too long

[unde0087]

Migo on Chiefs, that was good enough reason for Skins +7 but solid write up.

[grease lightnin]

Much respect dommer, but a lot of your write up is based on the due theory. Gambler's fallacy.

[spro23]

kirk cousins wife just had a baby this weekend. you think his mind will be on the game?

[pimike]

Wasn't impressed with Raiders O' Line this weekend.

[DOM_Toretto]

Much respect dommer, but a lot of your write up is based on the due theory. Gambler's fallacy.

Meh, I don't think fallacy. Due factor is real when it comes to regressing to the means. Different than going against a streak - saying the Indians were due to lose would've been 20+ bad bets in a row. But saying a QB, or offensive line, etc. are due to regress to their average stats are pretty solid reasons to bet. Unless you think Alex fukkin Smith is going to have a career year in his 13th season at age 33 for no reason whatsoever.

Completion %
2017: 77%
Career: 62%

QB Rating
2017: 133
Career: 86.2

Yards/Game
2017: 258
2014-16: 222
Career: 199

Turnovers/Game
2017: 0
2014-16: 0.67
Career: 0.98

[2daBank]

I do think smith is gonna have a career year, not because he has magically gotten significantly better but because of the offense around him and the emphasizing of taking more risk down the field.

That said I agree he probably has a down game tonight, not cause he due but because skins defense is rock solid and been excellent against the run so he won't have the advantage of working the pass game off the rushing atrack..

2 real concerns for a skins bet. Them overcoming the atmosphere early in the game where arrowhead will be a madhouse, they have to withstand the early emotional charge. Secondly is the red zone, skins been excellent moving the ball between the 20s the last 2 years but have been below average turning those drives into tds. On other hand kc one of best red zone offenses in league. I think very possible skins will have better game statistically but will get in trouble if they can't punch in red zone opportunities..

Interesting game as I think there valid reasons for both sides and really can't fault anyone for playing either. Gl

[lakerboy]

Spread should be good

[EdV38]

Everything everybody has said about this game so far leads to the conclusion that the under is the play here.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

will wait for Thomorino's writeup

[spro23]

Chiefs are winning the superbowl this year. They're going to have a season like the royals did in their WS run.

they'll cover -7

[grease lightnin]

Meh, I don't think fallacy. Due factor is real when it comes to regressing to the means. Different than going against a streak - saying the Indians were due to lose would've been 20+ bad bets in a row. But saying a QB, or offensive line, etc. are due to regress to their average stats are pretty solid reasons to bet. Unless you think Alex fukkin Smith is going to have a career year in his 13th season at age 33 for no reason whatsoever.

Completion %
2017: 77%
Career: 62%

QB Rating
2017: 133
Career: 86.2

Yards/Game
2017: 258
2014-16: 222
Career: 199

Turnovers/Game
2017: 0
2014-16: 0.67
Career: 0.98

He may regress to the mean, but he seems to have better weapons than before.

Either way, to say he is due to regress THIS GAME sounds like the due theory to me.

[2daBank]

Everything everybody has said about this game so far leads to the conclusion that the under is the play here.

That my only play on game. Let me be clear tho it isn't a very big edge. I think we have slight percentage better chance it stays under but there are certainly points to be had here. I just think the matchups and both teams relatively slow pace gives us a decent chance of a game being played in low 20s opposed to mid or high. Very similar to philly/chargers yesterday, I played that under as well and while it was played at a good pace to cash a few big plays in the 4th lead to it sneaking just over the number.

[lakerboy]

He may regress to the mean, but he seems to have better weapons than before.

Either way, to say he is due to regress THIS GAME sounds like the due theory to me.

The due theory works sometimes just like the gut play works sometimes just like the trend play works sometimes.

[2daBank]

Chiefs are winning the superbowl this year. They're going to have a season like the royals did in their WS run.

they'll cover -7

Maybe but whether they cover or even win tonight has nothing to do with their chances of winning sb. I can't recall the last Super Bowl champ that won and covered every game 😱

[2daBank]

The due theory works sometimes just like the gut play works sometimes just like the trend play works sometimes.

Just like the coin flip works sometimes. We had a guy yesterday win a game he played cause he had info that raiders lineman were intentionally not blocking! Fair to say right side wrong reasons! Lol

[PhattDaddy204]

Very disturbed by the Vegas massacre. Can't begin to imagine the guy's thoughts or fukked up justification in his fukked up head.

Gotta think positive today and turn to football. We got a good MNF matchup between the 2-1 Washington Redskins at the 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs.

Arrowhead will be loud and rocking for the MNF game trying to keep their team the only undefeated team in the NFL. Kareem Hunt is an absolute beast and will probably win Rookie of the Year.

With that said, I'm taking the REDSKINS +7.

This is a lot of points for this game. Redskins looked much improved last week and I wasn't surprised; I was waiting for Cousins to start gelling with his team and get the offense rolling. Chris Thompson looks like a legit offensive weapon. But most importantly the Skins Defense looked solid against a Raiders team with a good o-line & plenty of weapons.

Chiefs defense is legit but I think their offense has been operating at an artificially high, unsustainable level. Bottom line is Alex Smith is due to regress. He's due to regress to his career completion % which is 10% lower than current for the season. He's due to throw a pick which he hasn't yet this season. He's due to get sacked a lot tonight - especially with the banged up offensive line which will be without starting center and possibly starting left tackle.

Washington Redskins +7

I agree with your Vegas statements and game.

BOL

[EdV38]

That my only play on game. Let me be clear tho it isn't a very big edge. I think we have slight percentage better chance it stays under but there are certainly points to be had here. I just think the matchups and both teams relatively slow pace gives us a decent chance of a game being played in low 20s opposed to mid or high. Very similar to philly/chargers yesterday, I played that under as well and while it was played at a good pace to cash a few big plays in the 4th lead to it sneaking just over the number.

I have the half under as well so I cash something in case that BS happens to me here. Managed to get KC TT at 28 before it dropped to 27.5 and now you have to lay a lot of juice.

[Snowball]

not sure how 7 has value going into Arrowhead
it's just one td.

[2daBank]

I have the half under as well so I cash something in case that BS happens to me here. Managed to get KC TT at 28 before it dropped to 27.5 and now you have to lay a lot of juice.

I strongly considered splitting between half and game but skins been much better offensively early and felt like if big plays happened they might be right out the gate when the stadium charged up..

far as kc team total I obviously wouldn't take the over but with game under I felt we could achieve that with the game playing out multiple ways, one of which would be skins getting overwhelmed at arrowhead and losing something like 31-17. That not how I think it goes but I like my totals when i think it can cash the way I expect or still hit if things go little differently. Obviously I hope you cash them all! Gl

[shocka1212]

will wait for Thomorino's writeup

[johnnyvegas13]

Maybe but whether they cover or even win tonight has nothing to do with their chances of winning sb. I can't recall the last Super Bowl champ that won and covered every game 😱

Pats went 14-2 ats last yr then won the super bowl

I don't think chiefs will win it all since they can't get past steelers

[2daBank]

not sure how 7 has value going into Arrowhead
it's just one td.

What would you make line on a neutral field? Kc-3/3.5 I think about most it should be. You could certainly argue arrowhead in prime time worth a little more than a fg, but 4 maximum and most likely 3.5. Spread seems right where it should be, simply comes down to how you view the matchup,home field, situational advantage, etc etc. value in the eye of the beholder.

[Snowball]

What would you make line on a neutral field? Kc-3/3.5 I think about most it should be. You could certainly argue arrowhead in prime time worth a little more than a fg, but 4 maximum and most likely 3.5. Spread seems right where it should be, simply comes down to how you view the matchup,home field, situational advantage, etc etc. value in the eye of the beholder.

didn't say spread wasn't right, just that i don't see how it has much value

[2daBank]

Pats went 14-2 ats last yr then won the super bowl

I don't think chiefs will win it all since they can't get past steelers

If steelers their only obstacle id say kc alll the way! lol. ive yet to buy into steelers being all that good, maybe they are but they look like a team who's window closing to me. I don't think kc gonna win it either, no clue but feel like it gonna be one of these young teams out of afc this year, unless pats do something to fix d which I think more likely than steelers.

[shocka1212]

What would you make line on a neutral field? Kc-3/3.5 I think about most it should be. You could certainly argue arrowhead in prime time worth a little more than a fg, but 4 maximum and most likely 3.5. Spread seems right where it should be, simply comes down to how you view the matchup,home field, situational advantage, etc etc. value in the eye of the beholder.

this games gonna be a lot closer than people think... skins love cover 3 zones to neutralize speed threats KC imposes which and have the personal to execute it effectively. then you're relying on Alex smith to pick apart a defense for an entire game (good luck with that) rather than just take the man to man matchups of rather sketchy defenses first 3 weeks of the year. skins getting 7 here and they're not going to need one of em.

[2daBank]

this games gonna be a lot closer than people think... skins love cover 3 zones to neutralize speed threats KC imposes which and have the personal to execute it effectively. then you're relying on Alex smith to pick apart a defense for an entire game (good luck with that) rather than just take the man to man matchups of rather sketchy defenses first 3 weeks of the year. skins getting 7 here and they're not going to need one of em.

I don't think a lot expecting a blow out are they? I think it be close but like I said there a few ways I could see kc covering as well. I mean I recall Super Bowl version of pats going to arrowhead and getting waxed on primetime, can happen to anyone there. I agree kc gonna have to drive field, I think skins could have more successful drives and still be down cause when kc gets in red zone they score tds, skins settle far too often.

[shocka1212]

I don't think a lot expecting a blow out are they? I think it be close but like I said there a few ways I could see kc covering as well. I mean I recall Super Bowl version of pats going to arrowhead and getting waxed on primetime, can happen to anyone there. I agree kc gonna have to drive field, I think skins could have more successful drives and still be down cause when kc gets in red zone they score tds, skins settle far too often.

24-20

[2daBank]

24-20

Bout right where I put it.

[johnnyvegas13]

So who goes to the Super Bowl from AFc if not steelers or chiefs

pats again

That doesn't look likely right now

[2daBank]

So who goes to the Super Bowl from AFc if not steelers or chiefs

pats again

That doesn't look likely right now

Honestly think it gonna be one of these younger teams that haven't even looked great yet. Like I said unless pats make some sort of impactful move to help d which certainly possible. It a long season man by week 10 few of these up and comers will be hitting their stride.

Which one? Fukk if I know I ain't got a crystal ball. Pick one. Personally I like Texans, they been a qb away for the last how many years? Now they have a winner playing qb to go along with great defense and lot of talent on offense. Raiders very possible. Titans. I don't know either those qbs injury status tho. Unlike years past Everyone vulnerable this year, so get in the playoffs and you got a shot!!

[johnnyvegas13]

Texans r an interesting pk

Vegas certainly respects them giving them a pk vs chiefs

Rookie qb don't ussually make it to bowl

That said Watson right now is the best qb they ever had

[2daBank]

Texans r an interesting pk

Vegas certainly respects them giving them a pk vs chiefs

Rookie qb don't ussually make it to bowl

That said Watson right now is the best qb they ever had

Rookie has never made it but when everyone was saying that bout dak last year my answer was always "it just a matter of time as now days rookie qbs starting and succeeding much more than in olden days". Texans been class of that division while playing garbage qb roulette the last several years. I see no reason adding a capable qb to that roster doesn't elevate them to legit contenders.

[shocka1212]

So who goes to the Super Bowl from AFc if not steelers or chiefs

pats again

That doesn't look likely right now

Denver