1. #1
    milwaukee mike
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    **are the raiders throwing this game too?

    sure some line movement in denver's favor this week

    lot of weird sacks and dropped passes last week vs washington

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6KzzCCBPYE

  2. #2
    KVB
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    It's nothing but a bullshit story. Armstrong and Getty...

    Mike there are plenty of reasons for the line movement in Denver.

    It's only week 4, and 4 weeks of data are needed to really get going, but let me throw some numbers at you:

    The long term sharp forecast has Denver winning with 27 points to Oakland's 20 points. This would trigger bets up to Denver -3.5, but not -4.

    The stacking percentages forecast says Denver wins with 28 points to Oakland's 10 points.

    The non predictive public gauge has Denver winning 23-20.

    The public is on Denver pretty heavily and even though we only have 3 games played by each team so far, the numbers above and the known public support for Denver should give you a little more perspective on the line opener and movement.

    Good Luck

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  3. #3
    lakerboy
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    On the raider's

  4. #4
    milwaukee mike
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    you're mentioning "long term sharp forecast" and "stacking percentages forecast" as though everyone has and should use the same models

    models mean nothing when linemen don't care to pass protect as well as they could

  5. #5
    KVB
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    I'm just addressing the line and it's movements here. Nothing else. Those forecasts are excellent and predicting the movements and represent market moving money from many different winning handicapping techniques.

    There are many ways to handicap but those are representative numbers that illustrate why the line is where it is for this game in particular. They are at the Total and explain the movement to -3.5.

    The story out of Oakland is bullshit and has nothing to do with the results you see on the field.

    For those of us in the game, this is a non-story for talk radio banter and nothing else.

    It certainly is not being expressed in the market.

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  6. #6
    Sam Odom
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    Mike may be on to something

  7. #7
    KVB
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    Maybe so Sam, but it's not showing in the market.

    Also, my word locally is that the story is bullshit and that's where it will end.

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  8. #8
    KVB
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    I would be careful about betting against the Oakland Raiders based on this story about the linemen.

    There might be many distractions for teams, but on this is not one of them.

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  9. #9
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Maybe so Sam, but it's not showing in the market.

    Also, my word locally is that the story is bullshit and that's where it will end.
    line moved in denver's favor after the rumors started circulating

    total is down 3 1/2 points from peak, and denver is favored 3 1/2 more than opener

    so someone sure thinks oakland's offense will continue to struggle

  10. #10
    gauchojake
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    Pound the Raiders

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  11. #11
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    Pound the Raiders
    wouldn't touch them with someone's else's money at this point

  12. #12
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    line moved in denver's favor after the rumors started circulating

    total is down 3 1/2 points from peak, and denver is favored 3 1/2 more than opener

    so someone sure thinks oakland's offense will continue to struggle
    That's why I'm posting in this thread. Denver moving to -3.5 is a natural movement and would have a happened anyway.

    The Total has taken a hit here as more of the public is taking the Under.

    Notice the public gauge being far below the Total while market moving decision makers are sidelined.

    I will agree that the movement on the Total is pretty big, but I would warn against trading on this bullshit news.

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  13. #13
    krk1030
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    denver huge


    has nothing to do with bogus stories though

  14. #14
    KVB
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    I went with Chargers to win for the afternoon.

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  15. #15
    milwaukee mike
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    2nd worst offensive performance in the nfl in the last 3 years (128 total yds lol) and people think it is a bogus story

  16. #16
    KVB
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    Did you ever think that because of the game result and performance that a narrative like this becomes more believable?

    Don't give that story so much credit, it's just an excuse for the spot performance.

    Fans love excuses.

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  17. #17
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Did you ever think that because of the game result and performance that a narrative like this becomes more believable?

    Don't give that story so much credit, it's just an excuse for the spot performance.

    Fans love excuses.

    of course that's a possibility

    but some of you are calling it bullshit, like there is 0 possibility that one or more offensive linemen were mad enough at carr that they didn't give 100%

    guy doesn't throw an interception or get sacked in forever... and then first 2 drives he throws a pick and then gets sacked on back-back plays
    not proof of throwing the game but certainly fishy enough to give more than 0% chance to that possibility

  18. #18
    JIBBBY
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    Hard to beat Denver up in mile high.. Cowboys proved that a few weeks ago when they got blown out....

    Denver a favorite that most likely will win today.. Raiders should wear down.. I bet on it anyways..

    Denver dominating so far...

  19. #19
    KVB
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    I'm in California, not all that far from the Bay Area, with contacts close to the Raiders.

    Word that is much more credible than these gullible beat writers and radio talk show hosts says it's a bullshit story.

    At this point, no player is going to admit to it.

    Fans need something to grab onto after Monday night and, as usual, the NFL provided it. The Raiders were a heavy public favorite and it was a tough loss for them.

    There's nothing more to it.

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  20. #20
    KVB
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    Derek Carr sacked and injured.

    I wonder what the story will be this week.

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  21. #21
    JIBBBY
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    Tough winning up in mile high.. Raiders fail and Carr has a back pain for his troubles.
    Last edited by JIBBBY; 10-01-17 at 07:36 PM.

  22. #22
    Sam Odom
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    good betting edge... who cares if it is accurate - WINNER
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  23. #23
    dlowilly
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    Weird how the offense improved and receivers started catching passes once carr was out
    175 pts

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  24. #24
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Derek Carr sacked and injured.

    I wonder what the story will be this week.

    offensive line sure didn't protect their quarterback YET AGAIN

    angle was raiders/under and it came through... line movement won

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