1. 10-14-17 01:20 AM #36
    Jaug
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    Quote Originally Posted by CY892 View Post
    The line did NOT factor in a single NFL game this week!
    So for this week, all you had to do was pick the winner.
    This week:
    7 favorite covers
    6 Dog SU Winners
    0 Dog covers by spread
    ———————————
    For the year:
    35 Favorite covers
    28 Dog SU winners
    9 Dog covers – due to spread.
    5 WEEKS in!! -Only in 9 games – has the spread been a factor in the result!

    **Since the points are wasted in 5/6 games: Should you rarely bet money-line on favorites?


    ****So if you can just pick the SU winner– you win 5/6 NFL games******
    Questions:
    Since the points are wasted in 5/6 games: Should you mostly bet money-line if you like the dog?
    Since the points are wasted in 5/6 games: Should you rarely bet money-line on favorites?
    Is all the “line-value” talk over-rated? Only 8/60 games covered within 3 points of the line–
    Teasers not smart either
    This is not good for the bookies. They get action on favorite spread and underdog moneyline mostly. That means they are probably having a bad NFL season.
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  2. 10-14-17 04:12 AM #37
    jjgold
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    I never saw a big money line underdogs pour in so much this year
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  3. 10-14-17 03:51 PM #38
    GunShard
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    Mayweather money line = 100% money
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  4. 10-14-17 04:09 PM #39
    jjgold
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    Destruction

    Great word for it
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  5. 10-15-17 11:47 AM #40
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
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    It is my opinion that moneyline favorites will be winning this week with few upsets against the moneyline.

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  6. 10-15-17 01:57 PM #41
    jjgold
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    Mother fukker

    I am still a sucker and bet ml favs

    Sucker sucker
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  7. 10-15-17 02:10 PM #42
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Mother fukker

    I am still a sucker and bet ml favs

    Sucker sucker


    Don't be so hard on yourself.

    Of the 7 games playing, the ML favorite is winning 5 of them. GB and Balt are losing, but Rogers broke a collarbone.
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  8. 10-15-17 02:11 PM #43
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Destruction

    Great word for it
    Post more plays. This forum needs your Fades!
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  9. 10-15-17 02:34 PM #44
    KVB
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    SF and Miami trying to make games of it.
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  10. 10-15-17 07:26 PM #45
    KVB
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    For Week 6, including Thursday night's game, there have been 2 favorites that won and covered the spread.

    There have been 10 underdogs covering the number against the close with 8 of them winning outright.

    There have been 7 Overs and 5 Unders against the close.

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  11. 10-15-17 07:54 PM #46
    jjgold
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    Damn

    Vegas cleaning up
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  12. 10-16-17 12:26 AM #47
    silver39
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    Add another to the list
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  13. 10-16-17 04:36 PM #48
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Here are the Favorite/Underdog results in the NFL so far this year against the close. The Underdogs are covering at a fairly high clip and those that win outright are doing it at a high clip as well…

    Against Closing Line
    Week Games Favorite Underdog ML upsets Push
    1 15 7 7 5 1
    2 16 8 8 4
    3 16 4 12 8
    4 16 7 9 7
    5 14 7 7 6
    6 13 2 11 9
    Totals 90 35 54 39 1
    % 38.89% 60.00% 43.33% 1.11%
    % of Dogs: 72.22%
    Note: One Game left for week 6

    Now let’s take out the 1st two weeks and see what’s happened in the last four weeks…

    Against Closing Line
    Week Games Favorite Underdog ML upsets Push
    3 16 4 12 8
    4 16 7 9 7
    5 14 7 7 6
    6 13 2 11 9
    Totals 59 20 39 30 0
    % 33.90% 66.10% 50.85% 0.00%
    % of Dogs: 76.92%
    Note: One Game left for week 6
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  14. 10-16-17 07:42 PM #49
    jjgold
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    Fav due tonight
    Right?
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  15. 10-16-17 08:30 PM #50
    Philmill
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    my only 2 loses in NFL this year where home team favs

    gold knows things..........
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  16. 10-16-17 11:58 PM #51
    lonegambler23
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    should have been signaled to otters nation
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  17. 10-31-17 01:51 AM #52
    KVB
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    A little follow up to the earlier post.

    Here's the breakdown of Favorites/Underdog spread results for the NFL through the first half of the season. This also included the percent of Underogs that win outright...

    Against Closing Line
    Week Games Favorite Underdog ML upsets Push
    1 15 7 7 5 1
    2 16 8 8 4
    3 16 4 12 8
    4 16 7 9 7
    5 14 7 7 6
    6 14 3 11 9
    7 15 9 4 3 2
    8 13 8 5 1
    Totals 119 53 63 43 3
    % 44.54% 52.94% 36.13% 2.52%
    % of Dogs: 68.25%

    Here are just the last two weeks showing a sharp rebound of favorites...


    Against Closing Line
    Week Games Favorite Underdog ML upsets Push
    7 15 9 4 3 2
    8 13 8 5 1
    Totals 28 17 9 4 2
    % 60.71% 32.14% 14.29% 7.14%
    % of Dogs: 44.44%


    To stay consistent here is the 2nd quarter of the season, the last four weeks...


    Against Closing Line
    Week Games Favorite Underdog ML upsets Push
    5 14 7 7 6
    6 14 3 11 9
    7 15 9 4 3 2
    8 13 8 5 1
    Totals 56 27 27 19 2
    % 48.21% 48.21% 33.93% 3.57%
    % of Dogs: 70.37%


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  18. 10-31-17 05:21 AM #53
    jjgold
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    NFL rebound but NBA dogs pouring in

    Overall these ML favs kill us
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  19. 10-31-17 06:57 AM #54
    Sam Odom
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    Quote Originally Posted by CY892 View Post

    So for this week, all you had to do was pick the winner.

    That is JJ's rule #3

    Just Pick Winners
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  20. 10-31-17 10:43 AM #55
    jjgold
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    How do you win????????????
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