1. #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Thursday, 6/29/17

    3 MLB Sides Thursday

    Pirates +111 (5 Dimes)
    Mets +125 (5 Dimes)
    Padres -110 (5 Dimes)


    YTD: 295-312-16, -3.46

    Totals Coming

  2. #2
    LT Profits
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    6 MLB Plays Thursday

    6 MLB Plays Thursday

    Rangers / Indians OVER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Pirates +111 (5 Dimes)
    Rays / Pirates UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
    Mets +125 (5 Dimes)
    Twins / Red Sox OVER 10 -105 (Heritage)
    Padres -110 (5 Dimes)

  3. #3
    44 Mag
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    Is Cleveland @ 60% with Kluber pithing??? And how about Kershaw ??? I am also thinking of going against Shields.....

  4. #4
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    Is Cleveland @ 60% with Kluber pithing??? And how about Kershaw ??? I am also thinking of going against Shields.....
    Easily over on both counts.

    Cleveland is in fact 75% (-300)! Combination of Kluber and model hating Cashner.
    Dodgers are 67% (-204).

    As for Shields I get Yankees 56% (-127), Cessa nothing special either.

  5. #5
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Easily over on both counts.

    Cleveland is in fact 75% (-300)! Combination of Kluber and model hating Cashner.
    Dodgers are 67% (-204).

    As for Shields I get Yankees 56% (-127), Cessa nothing special either.
    Roger. Thank you.

  6. #6
    Conor McBettor
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    LT, you never consider taking a -1.5 when your model shows -300 or something crazy like that?

  7. #7
    chosen4th
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    What total number do you get for the cle/Tex game?

  8. #8
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by chosen4th View Post
    What total number do you get for the cle/Tex game?
    10.6

    Cleveland 6.8, Texas 3.8

  9. #9
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conor McBettor View Post
    LT, you never consider taking a -1.5 when your model shows -300 or something crazy like that?
    Odds on the -1.5 are almost always inflated on huge favorites.

  10. #10
    Deucerd
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    Hey LT, when you say somebody's xx%, for example Cleveland is 75%. That means model gives 75% chance to win? I'm assuming.

  11. #11
    biggie12
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    GL today LT i need the tribe to come up with a win

  12. #12
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deucerd View Post
    Hey LT, when you say somebody's xx%, for example Cleveland is 75%. That means model gives 75% chance to win? I'm assuming.
    Correct.

  13. #13
    LT Profits
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    1 MLB Addition

    7 MLB Plays Thursday

    Rangers / Indians OVER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Cardinals +118 (Heritage)
    Pirates +111 (5 Dimes)
    Rays / Pirates UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
    Mets +125 (5 Dimes)
    Twins / Red Sox OVER 10 -105 (Heritage)
    Padres -110 (5 Dimes)

  14. #14
    SOSANA
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    LT Profits,

    Your in Costa Rica? If so might be coming down for conference and would like to meet you and have a beer if possible.

    Curious what numbers your getting for MIA today.

    BOL on your card.

  15. #15
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by SOSANA View Post
    LT Profits,

    Your in Costa Rica? If so might be coming down for conference and would like to meet you and have a beer if possible.

    Curious what numbers your getting for MIA today.

    BOL on your card.
    No I am in PA. Same climate!

    I get Miami 52% (-108), note my play on Mets +125.

  16. #16
    LT Profits
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    Another MLB Addition

    8 MLB Plays Thursday

    Rangers / Indians OVER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Cardinals +118 (Heritage)
    Pirates +111 (5 Dimes)
    Rays / Pirates UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
    Mets +125 (5 Dimes)
    Twins / Red Sox OVER 10 -105 (Heritage)
    Yankees / White Sox UNDER 10 +100 (Heritage)
    Padres -110 (5 Dimes)

  17. #17
    xraygord
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    Don't like PIT.

  18. #18
    dtd069
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    i agree with xray... Rays have a 58% change to win. Value on rays for 1 unit.

  19. #19
    Waterstpub87
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    No I am in PA. Same climate!

    I get Miami 52% (-108), note my play on Mets +125.
    Where you at in PA LT? Are you a Yinz? PA is Pennsylvania right?

  20. #20
    xraygord
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waterstpub87 View Post
    Where you at in PA LT? Are you a Yinz? PA is Pennsylvania right?
    Palestinian Authority

  21. #21
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waterstpub87 View Post
    Where you at in PA LT? Are you a Yinz? PA is Pennsylvania right?
    Ranshaw, about one hour from Hershey, 90 minutes from Poconos, two hours from Philly.

    I am a transplanted New Yorker, born in Brooklyn, moved to Middle Village Queens at age 13. Came to PA after getting married.

  22. #22
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by dtd069 View Post
    i agree with xray... Rays have a 58% change to win. Value on rays for 1 unit.
    I have PITTSBURGH 52% (-108), I am high on Taillon. Archer grades out slightly better, but Pirates grade out better in other areas.

  23. #23
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I have PITTSBURGH 52% (-108), I am high on Taillon. Archer grades out slightly better, but Pirates grade out better in other areas.
    Also note my Under play, +111 was worth taking in expected low scoring coin-flip.

  24. #24
    FUqer
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    I get Rays -111 and total right at 8, with Archer surprisingly graded only 10.3% better than Taillon, with 6.2% bullpen advantage for the Pirates. I wanted to play the Rays until I ran the numbers.

    I've had big sample SDQL Under trends for every game this series and the first two hit and another one tonight.

    UNDER: Rays/Pirates (460-230 +25.6% ROI)

    OU: 230-460-36 (-0.64, 33.3%) avg total: 7.8 over / under: -$26,955 / +$20,634 ROI: -34.0% / +25.6%
    Last edited by FUqer; 06-29-17 at 06:22 PM. Reason: error on %

  25. #25
    dtd069
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    mets at plus 134 now.....

  26. #26
    JayDr3am
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    anything on the brewers LT

  27. #27
    dtd069
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    Lfg mets!

  28. #28
    xraygord
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I have PITTSBURGH 52% (-108), I am high on Taillon. Archer grades out slightly better, but Pirates grade out better in other areas.
    Looks good.

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