1. #1
    arie1985
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    Why the UNDER is such a value bet for Game 5

    In my opinion we are likely to see the end of the NBA 2017 tonight, where GS wins 4-1 and wins the trophy - this is not the same scenario like last year where the Cavs surprised GS - and I believe the "sucker" bet for tonight would be to back the CAVS with the spread.

    Nonetheless, I personally hate betting spreads and look at this:

    Game 1 = 204 pts [UNDER]
    Game 2 = 245 pts [OVER]
    Game 3 = 231 pts [OVER]
    Game 4 = 253 pts [OVER]

    People by nature tend to bet on UNDER in Playoffs because they believe the teams will play defensively and will put their lives in front of the fence - but this has been proven wrong ... and it's not only the NBA, but rather also the PBA and many other European playoffs have proven that this concept is worthless.

    And that being said, there are times when it's inevitable we hit some UNDERs, otherwise everybody would be rich.

    After the OVER performance in Game 4, and after getting 3 games in a row where every UNDER bettor buried his head in the sand (I didn't) - now it's time to hit the UNDER and hit it hard.,

    It's a much more valuable bet in terms of the odds being offered (GSW money line is low value, CAVS ML is good value but unlikely in my opinion).

    My Plan:

    I have 100 left in my account, I'm looking forward for the PBA game today with line of 205.5 - this is also a playoffs game in the PBA, I'm leaning the OVER but would probably take a bet in live. If that plan becomes successful I will bet what I get on the UNDER in Game 5 as a prematch bet - yes, one of those rare occasions where I would take a prematch bet instead of waiting for a live bet opportunity.


    TLDR: Bet the Under on Game 5.

  2. #2
    arie1985
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    PS I've risked all my betting points on this, as a starter, just so you know I'm 100% serious about this one:


  3. #3
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post
    PS I've risked all my betting points on this, as a starter, just so you know I'm 100% serious about this one:

    This dudes serious
    When a non pro EMPTIES his useless point balance into a play
    you know hes taking no prisoners .
    Sorry Arie , but this shit made me laugh
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 08/09/2018


  4. #4
    Dollars2Donuts
    Deadly
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fidel_CashFlow View Post
    This dudes serious
    When a non pro EMPTIES his useless point balance into a play
    you know hes taking no prisoners .
    Sorry Arie , but this shit made me laugh
    I also giggled about it. Was going to reply and then passed. Glad you did.

  5. #5
    arie1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fidel_CashFlow View Post
    Sorry Arie , but this shit made me laugh

  6. #6
    arie1985
    arie1985's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dollars2Donuts View Post
    I also giggled about it. Was going to reply and then passed. Glad you did.
    Enjoy your $11k winnings, and the new baby, my wife is also pregnant but expected date is 01-01-2018 and I'm not making it up, really. Again - very happy for you.

  7. #7
    arie1985
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    My plan to bet 200 on the NBA from this bet probably are crashing (live line now is 183.5 - but I know how the PBA is rigging stuff, I wouldn't be surprised if things change later on, still got 7 minutes in the 2nd plus full half).



    So I might not join the party - except for risking my betpoints

  8. #8
    2ndchance
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    When you turn pro can't u take your points with you?

  9. #9
    snapperman2
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    You can only take 3000 points with you when you become a pro.

    $20
    Angelman
    donation 02/15/2018


  10. #10
    Harry N. Lloyd
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapperman2 View Post
    You can only take 3000 points with you when you become a pro.
    What's the logic behind that?

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