[QuangX]

[5mike5]

Optional is asleep at the wheel

been trying to reach him all morning

he's the F1 guru in the racing forum

[5mike5]

Just played fastest lap bets vettel (+300) and kimi (+400) for some action

thats just sarts rhkugh without hisbinput i don't risk much

[5mike5]

Just played fastest lap bets vettel (+300) and kimi (+400) for some action

thats just darts though without his input, i don't risk much

Fixed. damn iPhone

[5mike5]

Kimi wrecked on the 1st turn.

[QuangX]

Kimi wrecked on the 1st turn.

jeez, luckily i didnt take him lol was thinking about it on a parlay. lol

[5mike5]

I'm cueless about the F1 stuff. I Just usually take 1-2 for FL. And always take kimi for it.

Only watch the F1 races usually if they are on while I'm getting ready for the nascar race on Sundays. Just happened to be awake this morning

[5mike5]

optional is very very skilled at F1.

He Really follows the technical side and what is expected in these races. If u like discussing and betting on it he is a good guy to bounce things off of

Didnt get to talk to him this morning, but I'm pretty sure yesterday he said he didn't think anybody would be able beat Hamilton. I just don't bet the race winner in this series because of the odds are so low compared to what I am Use to in nascar

[semibluff]

Generally bookies are scared when it comes to F1. Markets are done with a huge mark-up percentage so it's very hard to find value.

[Optional]

^^^ they are tight on favorites but there is good value on dog bets. Although this year tire changes have decreased the chances of anyone but leaders taking fast lap. Which has produced a good number of 15/1+ odds winners over the last few seasons.

optional is very very skilled at F1.

He Really follows the technical side and what is expected in these races. If u like discussing and betting on it he is a good guy to bounce things off of

Didnt get to talk to him this morning, but I'm pretty sure yesterday he said he didn't think anybody would be able beat Hamilton. I just don't bet the race winner in this series because of the odds are so low compared to what I am Use to in nascar

Haven't been well and been babysitting all weekend so could not watch much and didnt want to post guesses.

But think I said in a nascar thread somewhere the other day Hamilton for the win and fast lap looked pretty sure this week.

[semibluff]

Tips for Monaco in 2 weeks:

Ricciardo performs very well at Monaco. Verstappen has been too aggressive there in the past. Normally Verstappen is favoured over Ricciardo at a race weekend but that should be ignored here. If you can get a head-to-head bet at near -110 then take Ricciardo.

Ricciardo might be a decent bet for a podium in Monaco despite his car being off the pace. Hamilton, Vettel, and Ricciardo are the best 3 street circuit racers in F1 and there's a decent chance Ricciardo could out-qualify Bottas, Verstappen, and Räikkönen, on a zero overtaking track.

Williams cars traditionally struggle badly at Monaco. The car is normally poor in slow corners and they might struggle to get out of Qualifying 1. If you can bet against Massa or the Williams team then that will probably be good value, (especially if you can get a head-to-head bet against either Force India driver).

Räikkönen tends to give other drivers half chances to overtake him then closes the door. He's a poor bet to finish on the podium and a good bet to NOT finish the race due to an accident.

[Optional]

Agree about Ricciardo being a podium chance at Monaco but expect the books know how good he is there and will open him lower than Max.

I believe Red Bull will be getting a new design turbo for Monaco too. Not sure it can give them enough for him to grab pole but I might make a small early win bet on Ricciardo to win just in case. Assuming he is at least in the 15-20/1 range.

[semibluff]

Agree about Ricciardo being a podium chance at Monaco but expect the books know how good he is there and will open him lower than Max.

I believe Red Bull will be getting a new design turbo for Monaco too. Not sure it can give them enough for him to grab pole but I might make a small early win bet on Ricciardo to win just in case. Assuming he is at least in the 15-20/1 range.

I actually wouldn't expect them to know about it. Admittedly it's 30 years since I worked with Corals' sportsbook but when I spoke those 30 years ago with my equivalent numbers at Ladbrokes and Hills none of us had specialist people looking at motor sport, (or golf). Being fair we didn't have many specialists looking at anything. Most books were copied from 1 event to another with 'corrections' made based on the outcome of the last event. If, and it's a big if, those books make an adjustment for Monaco it'll be because Ricciardo made the podium in Spain rather than knowledge of last year's Monaco race. Some side information to show my point would be the race in Belgium last year. Anyone who followed F1 knew Hamilton was in engine problems last year and he was highly likely to take 2 engine penalties at that race. Most bookies still opened Hamilton as odds-on favourite for that race before they were forced into price corrections. He was still a very short price to win from the back of the grid when realistically he had 0 chance of winning. I expect bookies will still open Verstappen as a favourite over Ricciardo. Ricciardo will still open around +2500 to win, but the value on him shouldn't last very long, (maybe Tuesday before the race. lol).

[Optional]

I hope you're right. I'd like the +2500 if I see it.

[5mike5]

^^^ they are tight on favorites but there is good value on dog bets. Although this year tire changes have decreased the chances of anyone but leaders taking fast lap. Which has produced a good number of 15/1+ odds winners over the last few seasons.





Haven't been well and been babysitting all weekend so could not watch much and didnt want to post guesses.

But think I said in a nascar thread somewhere the other day Hamilton for the win and fast lap looked pretty sure this week.

yes u did.

You said nobody would have anything for Hamilton today.

As usual u were spot on

[5mike5]

I actually thought it was a exciting race for F1

[INVEGA MAN]

I like Wallace to win this at good odds

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Huge knowledge in this thread. Salud!

[shaunovery]

yes u did.

You said nobody would have anything for Hamilton today.

As usual u were spot on

Hamilton was very lucky , wouldn't have won the race apart from vettel getting held up by bottas on initial round of stops

[5mike5]

Well Hamilton did run him down easily When it Counted, and pretty much blew him away

[5mike5]

Actually rhkuggt it was an interesting race, which usually isn't the case for me in F1 usually . Was really into this one had wrecks, strategy and passes for position that meant a lot. Maybe that track is always that good?

[QuangX]

^^^ they are tight on favorites but there is good value on dog bets. Although this year tire changes have decreased the chances of anyone but leaders taking fast lap. Which has produced a good number of 15/1+ odds winners over the last few seasons.





Haven't been well and been babysitting all weekend so could not watch much and didnt want to post guesses.

But think I said in a nascar thread somewhere the other day Hamilton for the win and fast lap looked pretty sure this week.

I didn't understand but Opt you should post more on F1 racing

[Optional]

I didn't understand but Opt you should post more on F1 racing

I have posted a few threads this year but there hasn't been much interest really F1 Russian GP - 8.00am ET Sunday

Spain was probably the first race I missed come to think.

[semibluff]

Hamilton's 5 place grid penalty for tomorrow's race in Austria has created some betting value. Odds on Verstappen are also much shorter than could be justified by anything I saw in Practice 1, Practice 2, or Qualifying. (I will watch Practice 3 later). Hamilton hasn't looked better than the rest of the big 4 in Austria this year, and on a track where overtaking is extremely difficult I don't see him being a factor starting from 8th place. He is priced at +450 for the win and -200 to finish on the podium - which is dreadful value. If I could get +150 on him NOT making the podium I would rush to take it. Even with Hamilton demoted from 3rd to 8th Verstappen still starts 5th, which is where he was expected to be fighting for. Again, over P1, P2, and Qualifying I haven't seen much between Verstappen and his teammate Ricciardo. Since Ricciardo out qualified Verstappen and starts 4th i'd rather be on him than Verstappen. Ricciardo is +2500 to win whilst Verstappen is +1100. Even if Verstappen's car had been reliable in previous races I wouldn't want to be backing him. Even at +2500 i'm not advocating Ricciardo, (although +250 on him making the podium is a fair bet). The winner should come from the top 3 qualifiers and with Hamilton and Verstappen prohibitively priced there are fair prices on all 3. My recommendation is 3rd placed Räikkönen to make the podium at +250. With Hamilton starting in 8th and Force Indias struggling a little it's a very fair price. I have Räikkönen valued at +200 for a top 3 finish. Good luck to all.

[BigJay]

Went with Vettle to win for half a unit

[semibluff]

It's the summer break and the next race isn't until August 25th in Belgium, but here's a very early heads up pick. The pick is Sergio Perez for a top 3 finish in Belgium. In the current F1 season there are normally only 6 drivers who have any chance of the win and Perez wouldn't normally be 1 of them. However, F1 dictates that drivers are only allowed 4 engines per season. All of the top 6 drivers have used components of their 4th engine so all 6 are 99.999% certain to get grid penalties for a 5th and possibly 6th engine at some point this season. The Spa-Francorchamps circuit is 1 of the easier tracks left on this year's race calender to overtake on so it will be no surprise if 1 or 2 of the top 6 drivers choose to use a new engine here and take at least a 10 place grid penalty. It wouldn't shock me if 4 or more of those 6 take penalties. For reference Hamilton chose to take a grid penalty in Belgium last year rather than wait to take it elsewhere. This makes backing any of the top 6 a really bad bet before the race weekend. Why Perez? Well...you could pick either of the Force India drivers, either/any of the Williams drivers, or even Fernando Alonso. Alonso's car hasn't been reliable so who knows if he'll also be taking another penalty. Neither Force India nor Williams are in engine trouble. Of the 4 drivers Perez is head and shoulders above the other 3 in terms of pace and reliability. A quick look at the F1 Driver's Championship standings will tell you what's what. Additionally this race is an engine circuit rather than an aero circuit and the Force India is powered by the Mercedes, which is the most powerful F1 engine. This is a circuit Force India have done well at in recent years.

Perez would normally be around +2500 for a top 3 finish and the few books that are offering prices this early have him at that price. Even if none of the top 6 took penalties his true value price for a top 3 finish here should be around +2200. This is a value pick with huge upside.

Perez is normally around -190 for a top 10 finish. It's worth taking. Engine penalties would help but that price might not be hugely affected. It could be -270 in 3 weeks time, but it's more likely to be -225. Perez is expected to be in top 10. If he's not top 10 it'll be because of him or the car rather than the top 6 drivers.

Perez for the win? Don't get excited. He's normally around +50000 to win when his true value price would be +100000. Here he's a genuine +50000 chance with no-one taking penalties. If some of the top 6 take penalties he'd be somewhere between +6600 and +12500. He's +50000 with most books so if you ever wanted to throw $2 on a +50000 shot this would probably be as good a time as any to do it...just don't expect miracles.

Perez for pole? You'd have to read the fine print in your book's rules. Some books pay out on the podium position which could be taken as post qualifying press conference for settlement purposes. If so grid penalties wouldn't help and Perez would be a genuine +50000 shot for pole. If your book pays out on where drivers actually start on Sunday then feel free to take the +50000 because, with penalties, he's probably +8000 to start from pole. I'm only a bookie on a sports forum for the equivalent of betpoints, but if I were laying bets on pole position i'd be settling bets on Saturday results rather than where drivers started on Sunday. If in doubt don't bet on this.

Good luck, and if nothing else don't bet on the 'big 6' drivers, at least until just before the qualifying session. Don't bet this thinking you'll be able to hedge this out as an arb. The juice on F1 winners is huge - about 117% rather than 105% that you'd see on a baseball game. The juice on a top 3 finish normally works out to about 111%.

[semibluff]

Well that was a crapfest. None of the top 6 decided to take penalties on the 2nd easiest track for overtaking. Perez was still a genuine +2500 shot for a podium finis,h then he put his teammate into the wall and came off worse for the confrontation. meh! I guess the only upsides to a +2500 shot is you only have to be right 1 time in 22 to make a decent profit. On to the next race in Italy.

[Optional]

Well that was a crapfest. None of the top 6 decided to take penalties on the 2nd easiest track for overtaking. Perez was still a genuine +2500 shot for a podium finis,h then he put his teammate into the wall and came off worse for the confrontation. meh! I guess the only upsides to a +2500 shot is you only have to be right 1 time in 22 to make a decent profit. On to the next race in Italy.

Was surprised he didn't get a penalty for either the incident or for doing a lap with no tire.

Merc again at Monza I guess.

Hopefully Ferrari come up with something for the home crowd.

[semibluff]

Was surprised he didn't get a penalty for either the incident or for doing a lap with no tire.

Merc again at Monza I guess.

Hopefully Ferrari come up with something for the home crowd.

Monza will be tough to overtake at. I was surprised just how difficult overtaking was at Spa. It'll come down to qualifying and Ferrari don't seem to qualify well in Monza. Hamilton will be tough to beat but i'd rather look for +550 about Bottas than +400 about Vettel if I was looking to oppose him. I'll probably wait for Singapore where Vettel is just better than everyone else. I'd pick him over Hamilton in Singapore even if Hamilton's car is 0.3 seconds per lap quicker.

[Optional]

I expect Vettel will open around +150 and just get worse from there in Singapore :\

Might think about taking Verstappen there if odds look generous.

[shaunovery]

I expect Vettel will open around +150 and just get worse from there in Singapore :\

Might think about taking Verstappen there if odds look generous.

Verstappen needs to finish races before we consider betting him

Lewis will be tough to beat round monza but vettel will be under pressure to perform at ferraris hone track

[Optional]

Mercedes pair are 1.1 secs ahead of the Ferraris and Red Bulls with everyone else miles behind.

Bottas was faster than Lewis off the truck and when they ran with 'harder' tires but Lewis did him by about half a second on the Super Soft tires.

Both Red Bulls are going to be taking engine penalties and could well start at the rear no matter where they qualify.

Alonso and Sainz also known to be taking penalties as well.

That group probably worth taking for Fast Lap due to potential oddball tire strategy in the race.

@5Mike5... Perez Top 6 bet likely to be a winner this week ;-)



First free practice results - 2017 Italian Formula 1 Grand Prix

Pos.	Driver	Team	Time		Laps
1.	L. Hamilton	Mercedes	01:21.537		28
2.	V. Bottas	Mercedes	01:21.972		31
3.	S. Vettel	Ferrari	01:22.652		24
4.	K. Räikkönen	Ferrari	01:22.689		28
5.	D. Ricciardo	Red Bull	01:22.742		28
6.	M. Verstappen	Red Bull	01:22.749		23
7.	S. Pérez	Force India	01:23.317		36
8.	E. Ocon	Force India	01:23.400		34
9.	S. Vandoorne	McLaren	01:23.465		24
10.	F. Massa	Williams	01:23.561		37
11.	C. Sainz Jr.	Toro Rosso	01:23.680		22
12.	K. Magnussen	Haas	01:23.973		22
13.	L. Stroll	Williams	01:23.991		30
14.	D. Kvyat	Toro Rosso	01:24.012		27
15.	F. Alonso	McLaren	01:24.015		17
16.	R. Grosjean	Haas	01:24.079		22
17.	N. Hulkenberg	Renault	01:24.542		17
18.	J. Palmer	Renault	01:25.166		21
19.	P. Wehrlein	Sauber	01:25.223		26
20.	M. Ericsson	Sauber	01:25.687		17

[shaunovery]

As long as ocon don't run himoff the track

[5mike5]

Ohhhhhh Perez top 6 actually a contender eh??? I'm in when it posts again. Thanks for the update

what a full ll day of races Sunday

F1, Trucks, and Cup

[jjgold]

It is not a usa sport

I could not name 2 drivers last 15 years