1. #1
    sam9ball
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    2017 Kentucky Derby this Saturday

    Any ideas on which horse wins
    2017 Kentucky Derby
    Horse
    Trainer Jockey Pedigree
    Girvin
    Joe Sharp Mike E. Smith Catch the Moon by Tale of Ekati
    Classic Empire Mark E. Casse Julien. R Leparoux Sambuca Classica by Pioneer of the Nile
    Gormley
    John A. Shirreffs Jose L. Espinoza Race to Urga by Malibu Moon
    Irap
    Doug F. O'Neil Mario Gutierrez Silken Cat by Tiznow
    Irish War Cry H. Graham Motion Rajiv Maragh Irish Sovereign by Curlin
    Thunder Snow (IRE) Saeed bin Suroor Christophe Soumillon Eastern Joy by Helmet
    Always Dreaming Todd A. Pletcher John R. Velazquez Above Perfection by Bodemeister
    Gunnevera Antonio Sano Javier Castellano Unbridled Rage by Dialed In
    Practical Joke Chad C. Brown Joel Rosario Halo Humor by Into Mischief
    J Boys Echo
    Dale L. Romans Robby Albarado Letgomyecho by Mineshaft
    State of Honor
    Mark E. Casse Jose Lezcano State Cup by To Honor and Serve
    Tapwrit
    Todd A. Pletcher Jose L. Ortiz Appealing Zophie by Tapit
    Hence Steven M. Asmussen Florent Geroux Consequential by Mr. Prospector
    Fast and Accurate Michael J. Maker Channing Hill It's Heidi's Dance by Hansen
    McCraken Ian R. Wilkes Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. Change Water by Pretense
    Battle of Midway Jerry Hollendorfer Flavien Prat Polly Lee by Midway Circle
    Patch Todd A. Pletcher Tyler Gaffalione Windyindy by Union Rags
    Untrapped Steven M. Asmussen Ricardo Santana, Jr. Exit Three by Trappe Shot
    Lookin at Lee
    Steven M. Asmussen Corey J. Lanerie Langara Lass by Lookin at Lucky
    Sonneteer
    J. Keith Desormeaux Kent J. Desormeaux Gay Sonnet by Soy Numero Uno

  2. #2
    shopbar picks
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    I really like Classic Empire. And for fun I'm boxing Patch. Mcracken

  3. #3
    shopbar picks
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    Looking at Lee has my eye too

  4. #4
    chico2663
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    thunder snow. lots of back class. grandfather is half brother to northern dancer. his mother is in pedigree of citation,and dominoe

  5. #5
    CWD
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    mccraken +900

    but they say almost guaranteed off track

  6. #6
    ThaWoj
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    Gunnevera but I can't see Antonio Sano winning a derby.

    Irish war cry if the price is right.

  7. #7
    jjgold
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    It is the worst race to bet of the year

    If you like craps you like this race

  8. #8
    CWD
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    adding gunnevera +1400
    Points Awarded:

    mikemca gave CWD 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  9. #9
    sam9ball
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    Quote Originally Posted by CWD View Post
    adding gunnevera +1400

  10. #10
    cecil127
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    It is the worst race to bet of the year

    If you like craps you like this race
    da phuck u know, coach? huge pools, lotsa stupid people

    future pools I have:
    gunnevera/mccraken xacta box
    gunneva/thunder snow xacta box
    always dreaming to win
    Last edited by cecil127; 05-03-17 at 04:34 PM.

  11. #11
    slayer14
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    Thunder Snow looks the value bet

  12. #12
    ballahollic2
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    Quote Originally Posted by slayer14 View Post
    Thunder Snow looks the value bet

    Probably was until drawing post 2. Not completely off of him but going to take quite the run to win.

  13. #13
    sweethook
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    my moneys on Kent D

  14. #14
    ThaWoj
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThaWoj View Post
    Gunnevera but I can't see Antonio Sano winning a derby.

    Irish war cry if the price is right.
    Forget Irish war cry out of the 17 hole now.

    Best bet in this race is to play doubles/pickers and go all in this race. Or play matchup bets offshore. Hit a bunch on 5dimes last year. You can even parlay them.

  15. #15
    ballahollic2
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThaWoj View Post
    Forget Irish war cry out of the 17 hole now.
    Not saying he necessarily wins but that is just a statistical anomaly. You can't tell me you can win on either side of 17 but somehow 17 is impossible. I'd be more curious about the caliber of horse who didn't win from post 17. If you ask me he got a GREAT draw. All the speed is inside of him. He will be able to run and position himself where he wants.

  16. #16
    jjgold
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    Throw out top 3 choices

    Easiest way to make score

  17. #17
    ThaWoj
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    Nah obv I meant 17,18,19,20 pretty much means no chance (at least to me, along with 1 thru 3).

    When that pig looking at lucky who was the chalk had the 1 hole back in 2010, that was the easiest throw out I have ever seen. Unless your name is big brown there's no reason to have any of those inside/outside posts on top of any ticket.

  18. #18
    Ty$
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThaWoj View Post
    Forget Irish war cry out of the 17 hole now.

    Best bet in this race is to play doubles/pickers and go all in this race. Or play matchup bets offshore. Hit a bunch on 5dimes last year. You can even parlay them.
    Can you explain this a little more in depth?

  19. #19
    joeyp1222
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    hi folks im keying classic empire on tot
    p in trifecta with 8 horses underneath and usin Gromley on top in triple with 8 horses underneath
    WATCH OUT FOR ESPINOZA ABOARD.

  20. #20
    funnyb25
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    Watch out for the rain...

    BOL

  21. #21
    brock
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    Tapwrit
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    mikemca gave brock 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  22. #22
    mikemca
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThaWoj View Post
    Nah obv I meant 17,18,19,20 pretty much means no chance (at least to me, along with 1 thru 3).

    When that pig looking at lucky who was the chalk had the 1 hole back in 2010, that was the easiest throw out I have ever seen. Unless your name is big brown there's no reason to have any of those inside/outside posts on top of any ticket.
    Agree with 1&2. They are running straight into the rail when they break. Have to figure out a way to get 2 or 3 paths to the right with 18/19 horses in the way. Lookin at Lee will just drop in behind which is what he was gonna do anyway but any horse with intentions on being close to the front, inside posts are fatal.

    May not be the same for far outside , especially if its muddy/sloppy. They could be among the cleanest horses when the race is finished while everyone else is covered in a couple pounds of mud.

  23. #23
    ThaWoj
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
    Agree with 1&2. They are running straight into the rail when they break. Have to figure out a way to get 2 or 3 paths to the right with 18/19 horses in the way. Lookin at Lee will just drop in behind which is what he was gonna do anyway but any horse with intentions on being close to the front, inside posts are fatal.

    May not be the same for far outside , especially if its muddy/sloppy. They could be among the cleanest horses when the race is finished while everyone else is covered in a couple pounds of mud.
    Yeah but the outside horses will be so far back (unless they somehow get the lead) that it won't matter how clean they are. very hard to close on a slop track. If they stay wide to avoid the mess they will lose too much ground.

  24. #24
    Notorious_Donk
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    I'll be at the Derby on Saturday, cant wait. Looking at McCracken, Gunnevera, and Tapwrit.

    Tapwrit could be the darkhorse (+1200 at my book) as his statistics from prior races rank right up there with the top 5 horses. Stamina will be a factor especially if it rains

  25. #25
    sam9ball
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  26. #26
    Jeffie
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    Gormley has a lot of talent and should fill out the exotics. Their is great value on Irap, who finally figured out how to win a race last time out. And you have to love a horse with his demeneour, always relaxed and focused on track. One thing is for sure, the Kentucky derby hasn't been this wide open in years. Payouts will be huge.

  27. #27
    ballahollic2
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
    Agree with 1&2. They are running straight into the rail when they break. Have to figure out a way to get 2 or 3 paths to the right with 18/19 horses in the way. Lookin at Lee will just drop in behind which is what he was gonna do anyway but any horse with intentions on being close to the front, inside posts are fatal.

    May not be the same for far outside , especially if its muddy/sloppy. They could be among the cleanest horses when the race is finished while everyone else is covered in a couple pounds of mud.

    Agree with 1 & 2 also. I think in general 19 & 20 is usually a little far back. I think those in general are the worst 4 draws. Anything else inside of those numbers though I don't really mind. Irish war cry specifically is grading out as a great slop/mud runner. If he can get a cleaner trip coming from the outside and not taking in face full of mud that could work to his benefit for sure.

  28. #28
    pachyderm
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    Kentucky Oaks

    I'm not much interested in the derby and I know that the thread is about the derby but I have to mention the 6 Vexatious in the Oaks. High odds and bred to run all day. And I know one of the connections personally. Thinks she can win it outright.

  29. #29
    Notorious_Donk
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    Quote Originally Posted by pachyderm View Post
    I'm not much interested in the derby and I know that the thread is about the derby but I have to mention the 6 Vexatious in the Oaks. High odds and bred to run all day. And I know one of the connections personally. Thinks she can win it outright.
    Good stuff nonetheless

  30. #30
    3PtShooter
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    #10 gunnevera - #20 patch - #2 thunder snow

  31. #31
    mdunlap3
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    Like McCraken at 5/1 if weather stays nice. If looking like rain, will have to reexamine.

  32. #32
    mikemca
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    Quote Originally Posted by pachyderm View Post
    I'm not much interested in the derby and I know that the thread is about the derby but I have to mention the 6 Vexatious in the Oaks. High odds and bred to run all day. And I know one of the connections personally. Thinks she can win it outright.
    I'm all for long shots and hate favorites but no one is within shouting distance of Paradise Woods.

  33. #33
    mikemca
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    And I know horses who jump to a big figure usually regress. There are a couple reasons why that's probably not the case with her. One she is bred to route so maybe she just got to her normal level first time routing and 2 it's Mandella who brings them along progressively.

  34. #34
    matrix1022
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    I had animal kingdom when h was 16 and had ex with 17 , 18 , 19. Those numbers can come out this year guys. It's possible

  35. #35
    matrix1022
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    Woods is good but looking for upset

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