1. 04-20-17 06:55 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Thursday, 4/20/17

    2 MLB Plays Thursday

    Angels +156 (Heritage)
    Athletics +152 (Heritage)


    YTD: 64-78-2, -10.74
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  2. 04-20-17 07:21 AM #2
    LT Profits
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    No totals yet, which might make some people happy.
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  3. 04-20-17 08:55 AM #3
    dirtycash66
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    No totals yet, which might make some people happy.
    People might be happy if you just stop posting plays completely…..i know i would
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  4. 04-20-17 09:00 AM #4
    eddycash
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    I quit totals last week, glad I did
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  5. 04-20-17 09:01 AM #5
    newguy
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    Quote Originally Posted by dirtycash66 View Post
    People might be happy if you just stop posting plays completely…..i know i would
    Why? Seriously don't understand why people would ask a poster to NOT post plays on a gambling forum?!?!
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  6. 04-20-17 09:05 AM #6
    juicername
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    Think I'll tail that Oakland play. Absolutely nothing suggest they have any business winning this game, and that seems to be a lock winner in MLB nowadays.
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  7. 04-20-17 09:26 AM #7
    Conor McBettor
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    So let me get this straight...playing the A's is your play today. when they are facing Paxton who hasn't given up a run all year. That's fine, but how in the hell does that not make the Under 8 in that game a play?

    You really expect the A's to score 5 runs against the dude who hasn't given up a run the whole season? Come on. Use some common sense
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  8. 04-20-17 10:15 AM #8
    ThePittsburghuh
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conor McBettor View Post
    So let me get this straight...playing the A's is your play today. when they are facing Paxton who hasn't given up a run all year. That's fine, but how in the hell does that not make the Under 8 in that game a play?

    You really expect the A's to score 5 runs against the dude who hasn't given up a run the whole season? Come on. Use some common sense
    Yeah I absolutely don't get some of these plays, same with the pit stl over yesterday
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  9. 04-20-17 01:03 PM #9
    watsui
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    Quote Originally Posted by dirtycash66 View Post
    People might be happy if you just stop posting plays completely…..i know i would
    People would throw a party if you would go jump off a cliff
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  10. 04-20-17 01:23 PM #10
    johnnydallaz
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    Thanks LT, Best MLB thread!
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  11. 04-20-17 01:36 PM #11
    tatddy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conor McBettor View Post
    So let me get this straight...playing the A's is your play today. when they are facing Paxton who hasn't given up a run all year. That's fine, but how in the hell does that not make the Under 8 in that game a play?

    You really expect the A's to score 5 runs against the dude who hasn't given up a run the whole season? Come on. Use some common sense
    LT may be a losing gambler but this is one of the dumbest posts of the week. What's past isn't always prologue and...nice sample size "run all year".

    Hey...J. Teheran came into yesterday having given up only 2 runs in 19 innings and an ERA under 2. How'd he fare?
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  12. 04-20-17 02:07 PM #12
    FUqer
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    First time I replied to an LT thread but I been checking them for years, here are a few thoughts.

    He isn't playing with your money.
    He didn't force anyone to tail any picks.
    He wasn't shit talking.

    So what's the problem? The guy post everyday and answers people's questions as best he can. I've never seen him start shit with anyone. So what he made a bad pick, there are ways to let him know you disagree without being a prick about it. He went against the consensus, sometimes it works and sometimes it don't. LT had one of the best seasons I ever witnessed a couple seasons ago of +100 units and is a nice guy, give the man the respect he deserves.
    Points Awarded:

    matt711 gave FUqer 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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  13. 04-20-17 02:10 PM #13
    eddycash
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    most of us are just kidding with LT we know he is solid, that guy conor is just a rookie
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  14. 04-20-17 02:34 PM #14
    Rich Boy
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    Bos -1.5 in a miracle cover here, unreal
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  15. 04-20-17 03:16 PM #15
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conor McBettor View Post
    So let me get this straight...playing the A's is your play today. when they are facing Paxton who hasn't given up a run all year. That's fine, but how in the hell does that not make the Under 8 in that game a play?

    You really expect the A's to score 5 runs against the dude who hasn't given up a run the whole season? Come on. Use some common sense
    So that means Paxton won't allow a run all season?

    Look I LIKE Paxton, he was actually undervalued much of the time the last couple of seasons. But the pendulum has now swung as he seems overpriced here. Model has Seattle winning this game 56% of the time which is -127, so I simply felt +152 was great +EV.

    As for total, I get 7.6 so no opinion.
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  16. 04-20-17 03:24 PM #16
    stackz125
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Boy View Post
    Bos -1.5 in a miracle cover here, unreal
    Errr nvm
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  17. 04-20-17 04:00 PM #17
    Conor McBettor
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    So that means Paxton won't allow a run all season?

    Look I LIKE Paxton, he was actually undervalued much of the time the last couple of seasons. But the pendulum has now swung as he seems overpriced here. Model has Seattle winning this game 56% of the time which is -127, so I simply felt +152 was great +EV.

    As for total, I get 7.6 so no opinion.
    No opinion on a total? You should use that approach more often
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  18. 04-20-17 04:17 PM #18
    Deucerd
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    First time I replied to an LT thread but I been checking them for years, here are a few thoughts.

    He isn't playing with your money.
    He didn't force anyone to tail any picks.
    He wasn't shit talking.

    So what's the problem? The guy post everyday and answers people's questions as best he can. I've never seen him start shit with anyone. So what he made a bad pick, there are ways to let him know you disagree without being a prick about it. He went against the consensus, sometimes it works and sometimes it don't. LT had one of the best seasons I ever witnessed a couple seasons ago of +100 units and is a nice guy, give the man the respect he deserves.
    This is an absolutely on point post FUqer. If any of these guys were so amazing they'd be retired off there gambling profits and drinking out of coconut shells on a beach somewhere. Not worried about how good or bad somebody posting picks, for free, is doing on SBR. Keep doing what you do LT. Hope you get it turned around bro. Don't worry about the chum buckets, which it doesn't look like you do. BOL
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  19. 04-20-17 04:23 PM #19
    RavensFan2k3
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    I understand the Oak play. Looking more into it myself
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  20. 04-20-17 04:33 PM #20
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conor McBettor View Post
    No opinion on a total? You should use that approach more often
    It so happens I have no opinion on any totals today!

    Those will turn around though, they almost always do.
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  21. 04-20-17 05:40 PM #21
    CTOWNsCAPPIN
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    Quote Originally Posted by dirtycash66 View Post
    People might be happy if you just stop posting plays completely…..i know i would
    Fading works really well. You'd be up a fortune if you did so across all sports dating back to last year.
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  22. 04-20-17 05:41 PM #22
    CTOWNsCAPPIN
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    Smartest thing to do is fade the model.
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  23. 04-20-17 05:47 PM #23
    crackerjack
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    If you read LTs post you'd understand why he bets what he does. It's Value. He doesn't necessarily think As will win, but he thinks he gets good value betting them. I have my own opinions about this way of betting, but I'll keep them to myself.
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  24. 04-20-17 06:16 PM #24
    Conqueror
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    Quote Originally Posted by crackerjack View Post
    If you read LTs post you'd understand why he bets what he does. It's Value. He doesn't necessarily think As will win, but he thinks he gets good value betting them. I have my own opinions about this way of betting, but I'll keep them to myself.
    Great post!
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  25. 04-20-17 11:51 PM #25
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    2 MLB Plays Thursday

    Angels +156 (Heritage)
    Athletics +152 (Heritage)


    YTD: 64-78-2, -10.74
    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    I understand the Oak play. Looking more into it myself
    Looking good for us
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  26. 04-21-17 01:34 AM #26
    tatddy
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    Can this Conner Mcnobody ghost have been buried any harder today? Nice win, LT.
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  27. 04-21-17 07:13 AM #27
    chargers4222
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conor McBettor View Post
    So let me get this straight...playing the A's is your play today. when they are facing Paxton who hasn't given up a run all year. That's fine, but how in the hell does that not make the Under 8 in that game a play?

    You really expect the A's to score 5 runs against the dude who hasn't given up a run the whole season? Come on. Use some common sense
    No, he expected them to score 9.
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