1. #1
    Optional
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    F1 - Australian Grand Prix 1am ET Sunday

    The new Formula 1 season kicks of this Sunday in Melbourne (1am US ET Sunday)


    One bet I think will be great value is for the Pole Sitter NOT To Lead Lap 1.

    A major rule change on how the clutch works was specifically designed to make the starts more unpredictable. I think anything better than about +150 makes it worth taking blind. Might be double those odds if the books/public haven't caught the change.

    The bet isn't available until after qualifying is over, btw.



    Win Market

    Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) +130

    Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari) +350
    Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes) +550
    Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) +800
    Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull) +1000
    Max Verstappen (Red Bull) +1000
    Felipe Massa (Williams) +10000
    Lance Stroll (Williams) +25000
    Fernando Alonso (McLaren) +25000
    Sergio Perez (Force India) +25000
    Nico Hulkenberg (Renault) +35000
    Stoffel Vandoorne (McLaren) +50000
    Kevin Magnussen (Haas) +50000
    Daniil Kvyat (Toro Rosso) +50000
    Carlos Sainz Jr (Toro Rosso) +50000
    Esteban Ocon (Force India) +100000
    Romain Grosjean (Haas) +100000
    Jolyon Palmer (Renault) +100000
    Marcus Ericsson (Sauber) +200000
    Pascal Wehrlein (Sauber) +200000


    During pre-season testing Mecedes and Ferrari looked like they are going to come out ahead of everyone else.

    Red Bull were only best of the rest but their engine supplier, Renault, announced that they have made changes that were holding them back on power and reliability during testing, so they could be over-priced a little at 10/1 each.

    Either Hamilton/Vettel to win -191 is probably the best bet out of the win market if you like chalk. I'd guess that could be closer to -500 by race day if practice/quali goes as expected right now.

    But I'm waiting until we see Friday practice, at least, before making a bet myself.



    Top 10 Finish


    Lewis Hamilton -1000
    Sebastian Vettel -1000
    Valtteri Bottas -700
    Kimi Raikkonen -700
    Daniel Ricciardo -600
    Max Verstappen -600
    Felipe Massa -300
    Sergio Perez -175
    Lance Stroll -150
    Nico Hulkenberg -110
    Fernando Alonso +100
    Carlos Sainz +100
    Daniil Kvyat +165
    Jolyon Palmer +165
    Esteban Ocon +175
    Kevin Magnussen +225
    Romain Grosjean +250
    Stoffel Vandoorne +300
    Marcus Ericsson +1100
    Pascal Wehrlein +1200


    Esteban Ocon +175 is good value and the odds should drop to evens or worse if he practices well. I think the Williams will not be as fast as Force India giving Ocon a serious chance at a top 8 finish, let alone top 10.



    Fastest Lap

    Lewis Hamilton +165
    Sebastian Vettel +300
    Valtteri Bottas +400
    Kimi Raikkonen +700
    Max Verstappen +1000
    Daniel Ricciardo +1000
    Sergio Perez +10000
    Felipe Massa +12500
    Fernando Alonso +12500
    Lance Stroll +12500
    Nico Hulkenberg +15000
    Carlos Sainz +15000
    Stoffel Vandoorne +25000
    Daniil Kvyat +25000
    Kevin Magnussen +25000
    Jolyon Palmer +50000
    Esteban Ocon +50000
    Romain Grosjean +50000

    Pascal Wehrlein +100000
    Marcus Ericsson +100000


    If you spread one unit across those 12 (dutched) it pays +1644

    With new different compound tyres and uncertainty about speed/reliability of every team first race out I think that is enormous value basically betting that one of the top 3 teams wont make the fastest lap. It only takes someone getting a flat late in the race, or using a weird alternate strategy, to see a rank underdog take it.



    Will look at H2Hs and other exotics on race day.

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  2. #2
    rkelly110
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    Nice write up Opti. I'll see if my book has action.

  3. #3
    jjgold
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    I did not even know this was a sport any longer

    I thought it folded 5 years ago

  4. #4
    SharpAngles
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    Love F1 racing. Hope you slam the books with these Opti. I hear the Ferraris will be much more competitive this season, might not be such an easy year for Mercedes.

  5. #5
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by SharpAngles View Post
    Love F1 racing. Hope you slam the books with these Opti. I hear the Ferraris will be much more competitive this season, might not be such an easy year for Mercedes.
    I sure hope the red cars can fight with them this year. And Red Bull too hopefully.

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  6. #6
    shaunovery
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    Quote Originally Posted by SharpAngles View Post
    Love F1 racing. Hope you slam the books with these Opti. I hear the Ferraris will be much more competitive this season, might not be such an easy year for Mercedes.
    New season , same result , Lewis just too quick making race winner betting options limited

    Betting h2h might be way to go

  7. #7
    Optional
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    Yeah have to agree that after two practice sessions today Hamilton is looking untouchable.

    It will be a sad season if even Bottas can't make the ½ second deficit it appears there is.

    RedBull had to change suspension design at the last minute to avoid a Ferrari protest and I think that is holding them back a little for now. Renault and Torro Rosso showing the power plant isn't too bad.

    Force India not as good as i hoped and Ocon looking looking as far behind Perez as Bottas is behind Hamilton after day 1.

    Hoping practice 3 and qualifying throws up something surprising tomorrow.

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  8. #8
    SharpAngles
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    Just played this Grosjean prop on dimes. They're only offering H2Hs at the moment but I hope to grab a Grosjean top 10 if it becomes available.

    Sun 3/26 7711 Felipe Massa -140
    1:00AM 7712 Romain Grosjean +110

    Grosjean ran a great race on this circuit last year and I'll happily bet on Hass over the current Williams team.

  9. #9
    Optional
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    Grosjean Top 10 is -250 at 5Dimes.

    Not sure I like it that much. He still has a question mark over his brakes over race distance too.





    McLaren went way better than expected in quali and are talking up their reliability.

    I think this is smoke and mirrors and there is very little chance they will finish the race. Or not at a compeittive speed if they do make it to the finish line.

    Their problem is an inherent design flaw that causes vibration and Honda has already announced a new design will be here for the Monaco race in May as its just not possible to fix this design.


    Anyway, I think taking them for First Driver Retirement is a smart bet

    Stoffel Vandoorne +900
    Fernando Alonso +1100

    Put 52% on VanDoorne and 48% on Alonso for +474 odds either McLaren is first car to retire.

    (better way to bet that First Team to Retire odds at +400)

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  10. #10
    SharpAngles
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    I am still only seeing H2Hs but -250 is a no for me. Was thinking he'd be under -200 but I guess the qualifying performance got the books attention.

    I like your thinking in this thread, hope you make some money here

  11. #11
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by SharpAngles View Post
    I am still only seeing H2Hs but -250 is a no for me. Was thinking he'd be under -200 but I guess the qualifying performance got the books attention.

    I like your thinking in this thread, hope you make some money here
    angles are u looking under futures?

    If not thats the problem. Hope it helps

  12. #12
    SharpAngles
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    Thanks Mike. Took me a while to figure that out but I did find it eventually. Don't remember dimes doing that last season.

  13. #13
    Otters27
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    Too tired to stay up for it

  14. #14
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by SharpAngles View Post
    Thanks Mike. Took me a while to figure that out but I did find it eventually. Don't remember dimes doing that last season.
    NP

    if u bet nasacar too we have a weekly thread for it in racing sub-forum too

  15. #15
    5mike5
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    Gonna throw a few darts

    1st team retirement:
    McLaren (+400)

    fast lap:
    iceman (+900)
    dan R (+1400)

  16. #16
    Outsider626
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    Driver with fastest lap Lewis Hamilton + 145 what ya think?

  17. #17
    5mike5
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    kimi "the iceman" Raikkonen (+900) nails fastest Lap!!


    Yes sir

  18. #18
    Optional
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    Nice one Mike

    Ocon sneaking into a top 10 saved me from too much of a loss.

    Top 6 cars set 5 of the top 6 fastest laps, and if Ricciardo had not broken down it would have been 6 from 6. So much for my plan to fade them for that.

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  19. #19
    5mike5
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    As U know it wasn't a "handicapping" play for me. If I bet any F1 race it's usually just FL plays and 1 is always iceman. Plus when u liked it too it gave me more confidence to wager on the race. Nice to start off with it. I fell asleep about 1/2 through and missed the end. Read he set the fast lap on the last lap of the race right after bottas did it.

    Actually wasnt a snooze fest that I expected , I got to see vettel pit lane exit to take the lead b4 I feel asleep. That strategy was insane as fast as these cars are and to time that perfect was incredible. Maybe it was luck I don't know, but seemed like it played out exactly as they planned for it to. Race winning call

  20. #20
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5mike5 View Post
    As U know it wasn't a "handicapping" play for me. If I bet any F1 race it's usually just FL plays and 1 is always iceman. Plus when u liked it too it gave me more confidence to wager on the race. Nice to start off with it. I fell asleep about 1/2 through and missed the end. Read he set the fast lap on the last lap of the race right after bottas did it.

    Actually wasnt a snooze fest that I expected , I got to see vettel pit lane exit to take the lead b4 I feel asleep. That strategy was insane as fast as these cars are and to time that perfect was incredible. Maybe it was luck I don't know, but seemed like it played out exactly as they planned for it to. Race winning call
    Yeah it was close. Bottas held it for 10 seconds before Kimi just beat it.

    We need to remember that... how both Finnish drivers went for the fast lap on the last lap of the race.

    Doing that so often is the reason we have always leaned toward betting Kimi for it often. Maybe Bottas another to watch. I'll try to go back and see if there is any evidence of him doing the same when at Williams.

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  21. #21
    5mike5
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    I was wondering why always bet Kimi since it's a habit now and can't remember why it started. I'm positive u had to have told me something about him liking to try for it long ago and won on it early too

    let me know what u think after looking back.

    Cant remember who asked, but reading that article this morning, some driver asked "what's the fastest lap time", and he got a response "it's too fast". Lol. Wish I remember who it was because he was wanting a shot at it too at the end

  22. #22
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5mike5 View Post
    I was wondering why always bet Kimi since it's a habit now and can't remember why it started. I'm positive u had to have told me something about him liking to try for it long ago and won on it early too

    let me know what u think after looking back.

    Cant remember who asked, but reading that article this morning, some driver asked "what's the fastest lap time", and he got a response "it's too fast". Lol. Wish I remember who it was because he was wanting a shot at it too at the end

    Total fastest laps

    Driver Fastest laps Race starts Percentage
    1 Michael Schumacher 77 306 25.16%
    2 Kimi Räikkönen 44 253 17.39%
    3 Alain Prost 41 199 20.60%
    4 Lewis Hamilton 31 189 16.40%
    5 Nigel Mansell 30 187 16.04%
    6 Jim Clark 28 72 38.89%
    Sebastian Vettel 179 15.64%
    8 Mika Häkkinen 25 161 15.53%
    9 Niki Lauda 24 171 14.03%
    10 Juan Manuel Fangio 23 51 45.10%
    Nelson Piquet 204 11.27%
    Source:[8]
    Most fastest laps in a season

    Driver Season Entries Fastest laps Percentage WDC
    1 Michael Schumacher 2004 18 10 55.55% 1st
    Kimi Räikkönen 2008 3rd
    2005 19 52.63% 2nd
    4 Mika Häkkinen 2000 17 9 52.94% 2nd
    5 Nigel Mansell 1992 16 8 50.00% 1st
    Michael Schumacher 1994 1st
    1995 17 47.05% 1st
    Lewis Hamilton 2015 19 42.11% 1st
    9 Nelson Piquet 1986 16 7 43.75% 3rd
    Alain Prost 1988 2nd
    Michael Schumacher 2002 17 41.17% 1st
    2006 18 38.89% 2nd
    Mark Webber 2011 19 36.84% 3rd
    Sebastian Vettel 2013 1st
    Lewis Hamilton 2014 1st

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  23. #23
    5mike5
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    Well that sums up why u tipped me off a while ago^^^^^


  24. #24
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5mike5 View Post
    Well that sums up why u tipped me off a while ago^^^^^

    It's not very clear there but only he and Schumacher have won 10 fast laps in a season and Kimi has done it twice.

    It's just something he seems to think about going for a lot more than regular drivers.

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  25. #25
    5mike5
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    Wasn't it just last year they hung 40-1 on him on FL that we got on?

    I know we got it just cant remember when it was

  26. #26
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5mike5 View Post
    Wasn't it just last year they hung 40-1 on him on FL that we got on?

    I know we got it just cant remember when it was
    and he won it at 40-1 when we got that #

  27. #27
    Optional
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    Yeah, when he wasn't racing well the odds went way up but racing well doesn't directly correlate to fast lap performance but the books continue to price the market as if it does race after race.

    If he maintains that 17.38% fast lap hit rate then his implied odds should be +475 yet last year we rarely had to take less than +1200 most races. And way better occasionally.

    With a fast car the chances of him doing that are even better than the last few years so we really can pretty much blind bet him every race at +900 or better and pretty certain of a decent size winning season just on that bet.


    By comparison Lewis Hamiltons implied odds from his career record are +510 for fast lap and he's been less than +200 for fast lap most races for at least 2 years.

    Vettel is +590 from career record and we rarely see him much over that either.

    Kimi fast lap odds have been a puzzling aberration.

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  28. #28
    5mike5
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    Yeah that doesn't make a lot of sense does it. Hopefully they keep hanging it out there at a good #

  29. #29
    Optional
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    Just checked and he actually only did it once last year. Meaning we needed better than +2000 avg odds to have profited on the season.

    Still think he will be good for 3+ fast laps this year though. 3.78 fast laps this year would maintain that career 17.38% avg. I think he does that in this car.

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