1. #1
    Plaza23
    Plaza23's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-29-13
    Posts: 7,392
    Betpoints: 13787

    Golden State is worst team ATS in NBA

    Best record: 33-6
    Worst ATS record: 15-23-1

    That shouldn't happen right?

  2. #2
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    of course it can happen

    point spread covers are a random daily event

  3. #3
    SamsNCharge99
    5x POTM. 2x Video maker of the year
    SamsNCharge99's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-22-08
    Posts: 41,242
    Betpoints: 6404

    average spread of their games is probably 12-14 points. Basically GState wins a bunch of games but doesn't blow anyone out. Makes perfect sense.

    They beat detroit tonight by 10, they win but don't cover

  4. #4
    shadymcgrady
    shadymcgrady's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-27-12
    Posts: 10,036
    Betpoints: 2978

    Not sure what the stats r but does this first third of the season remind anyone else of the miami heat their first yr after acquiring lebron and bosh? I recall that they struggled to cover spreads early on bc they were both to big or high and there was a ton of public money behind them

  5. #5
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 74,849
    Betpoints: 7576

    Quote Originally Posted by Plaza23 View Post
    Best record: 33-6
    Worst ATS record: 15-23-1

    That shouldn't happen right?
    Yes, it's exactly what should happen. The aura of the Golden State Warriors is finally showing itself.

    The constant push of unsophisticated (public) money, the breakdown of which I could do but is beyond the scope of the thread, had finally pushed the line too far.

    Again, not one game of "public" reaction, but a broader sense of reaction, is in play.

    The line has moved too far and now the market has to catch up, there's always lag with this type of flow.

    This is no more than the expected and predictable regular behavior of nearly all sports markets. This happens daily with multiple trends, stats, formula, etc.

    If you understand why the line opens where it does and why it moves to where it closes, you will go a long way to winning long term.

    With that knowledge, one would immediately know that not only should this happen, it was guaranteed to happen, eventually.


  6. #6
    rizespor
    rizespor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-21-16
    Posts: 1,900
    Betpoints: 707

    1-8 in their last 9

    About half were close though (vs MIA +14.5 lost by 2.5, @SAC +11.5 lost by 0.5, vs TOR +9.5 won by 0.5, @CLE +2.5 lost by 3.5, @DET +7.5 lost by 1.5)

  7. #7
    kingdom
    kingdom's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-25-10
    Posts: 10,093
    Betpoints: 1957

    yet the world is scared to fade them. because they have potential to beat any by 35

  8. #8
    Cordoba25
    Cordoba25's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-22-14
    Posts: 315
    Betpoints: 3682

    Quote Originally Posted by kingdom View Post
    yet the world is scared to fade them. because they have potential to beat any by 35
    Which is why books continue to inflate their lines..

  9. #9
    rizespor
    rizespor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-21-16
    Posts: 1,900
    Betpoints: 707

    Warriors also still have yet to be a dog this season.

    Only chance would be 2 remaining games at San Antonio. 3/11 and 3/29, both games on tail end of b2b AND both are also 3rd in 4 days

  10. #10
    RetiredinPunta
    RetiredinPunta's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-30-16
    Posts: 262
    Betpoints: 77

    there were even incidents when they blew out their opponent but didnt cover. I remember when they played some teams as -18 or higher favorite and they won by 15, 16 points etc which is a blow out but still not enough to cover.

  11. #11
    franklee168
    franklee168's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-06-11
    Posts: 5,522
    Betpoints: 16693

    Vegas knows everyone is in love with the Warriors and can throw out a ridiculous line every time. They have not found their stride yet as a team hence the low coverage percentage.

  12. #12
    rizespor
    rizespor's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-21-16
    Posts: 1,900
    Betpoints: 707

    They were a. 500 team ats just 9 games ago

    Streaks happen all the time.

    Celtics have played 12 consecutive OVERS. Longest over streak since 92. Is anyone gonna start blindly betting Celtics overs?

  13. #13
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    They will not lose spread every game

    Watch out tonight

  14. #14
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 74,849
    Betpoints: 7576

    Quote Originally Posted by RetiredinPunta View Post
    there were even incidents when they blew out their opponent but didnt cover. I remember when they played some teams as -18 or higher favorite and they won by 15, 16 points etc which is a blow out but still not enough to cover.
    Perfect example of that market getting out of reach; especially, in my opinion, when not covering starts happening at these blowout levels often.

  15. #15
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    Thompson worth at least 6 points on the line

  16. #16
    Git Lo
    Git Lo's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-20-11
    Posts: 3,705
    Betpoints: 13209

    Just a continuation of last year -17 spreads all day. Books love banging the population

  17. #17
    mtofell
    mtofell's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-21-13
    Posts: 737
    Betpoints: 4680

    The biggest misconception in sports betting is people thinking lines are set where the line setters think the points/scores end up. Reality is the aim of sports books is to get equal money on each side, take their 10% (or more) and live happily ever after. The public regularly get far too excited on flashy teams like the Warriors or the Cowboys or the Yankees. There's a whole posse of professional bettors living outside of Vegas in HUGE houses that, long term, benefit from the public over-inflating spreads on good teams.

    NFL this year killed the sports books and pro bettors. There was an inordinate amount of favorites winning. It seems to be the opposite in the NBA. I don't track it close enough but that GSW stat doesn't surprise me. Many other good teams seem to be losing at a pretty good clip - CLE last night, SA and CLE night before along with HOU barely winning (but not covering by a mile).

    Admittedly, I'm just some idiot that throws some beer money on the games to make watching more fun. I'm definitely part of the dumb public making the pros rich.

  18. #18
    hedgejob
    hedgejob's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-21-09
    Posts: 2,561
    Betpoints: 5164

    GS have covered 9 out of 11 since this thread.

  19. #19
    Git Lo
    Git Lo's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-20-11
    Posts: 3,705
    Betpoints: 13209

    Quote Originally Posted by hedgejob View Post
    GS have covered 9 out of 11 since this thread.
    Thats crazy but I bet a lot of ppl shyed away, but there was some juicy matchups like the one vs charlotte. Books set it high so you tail you probably lose but your not gonna fade GS are you??

  20. #20
    Jayvegas420
    Vegas Baby!
    Jayvegas420's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-09-11
    Posts: 28,143
    Betpoints: 15015

    Hedge gets it.
    How about those wizards?

  21. #21
    p4$$ion
    p4$$ion's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-16
    Posts: 340
    Betpoints: 427

    miami heat on a 9 game winning streak and nobody is even talking about them. im sure thyve covered a bunch too.

  22. #22
    hedgejob
    hedgejob's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-21-09
    Posts: 2,561
    Betpoints: 5164

    Dbl post

  23. #23
    hedgejob
    hedgejob's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-21-09
    Posts: 2,561
    Betpoints: 5164

    MIA, DAL, GSW all 9 out of 11 ATS.

  24. #24
    krk1030
    krk1030's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-13-08
    Posts: 17,605
    Betpoints: 4884

    pretty sure the nets have to be the worst ats now

  25. #25
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    golden st starting to heat up now

  26. #26
    INVEGA MAN
    INVEGA MAN's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-30-08
    Posts: 6,701
    Betpoints: 11720

    I didn't know this.

Top