[gauchojake]

Guys we have football tomorrow

[RangeFinder]

JT Train,

You are getting into an area where you're reading tea leaves IMO. There are just too many variable situations for you to determine whether or not to fire a bet early or wait. I think your better option is to make your odds line, find your value, and then stick to it and keep records. After a few thousand plays, you can at least go back and start to see where work is needed and where you excel. To find that data might be doable, but using it for profit will be very difficult, if not impossible.

Best of luck, at least you're putting forth effort which is the key to anything in life.

[ManOfValue]

The data is there but you will have to put it on an excel sheet or something yourself like gaucho said. Donbest has tons of stats. I think on their scores page they have the opening line and closing line. I don't think that stat will help you at all though. Probably better off finding factors that make favs go up or down. What if the data says 50% of spreads bet 5-9 go up, How will you know when to move?

[jjgold]

Once you guys realize every game against the pointspread is random you will not lose as much 💰


If you see how games are won and lost as far as the pointspread it's pure luck in at least 70% of the cases

[dante1]

Wow, what percentage of lines in that range moved higher and what percentage move lower?

Just so you could try to "figure out" whether you should wait to place your bet or not.

I don't think you could ever find that out, much less try to "practice" it and get your extra half-point (or more)

that you want.

I'd just say go "line shopping" all around Vegas or the Sportsbooks and see who has the line a half a point higher

and then just bet the game right then at that place. You wouldn't go nutz that way!

I actually spent years on line changes, I thought they were very very important. I had some success for a little while and thought hey I found a way to win. lol I was wrong.

First, like many say I don't think the info he wants is available. I may be wrong but I have never seen it, now that doesn't mean it doesn't exist it may very well I am simply saying I have never come across anything like that. I am not an expert in following stats so keep looking.

Back to line changes, I think it is simply another method used to wager that will in the long run fail. I seriously did have some success in baseball but it all came crashing down. I think Heritage makes it pretty easy to check line changes. SBR isn't too bad either. If you want to get more sophisticated I don't know where to send you but I read some suggestions in this thread that might help you.

good luck with this course of action.

[Waterstpub87]

Heritage has a very useful feature with their closing lines option. However, you can only go back 6 months or so, and they only have the closing line, not the movement. It is good for checking things like props, so if you are planning ahead for football, and want to check the props offerings, you can do this really anytime up till now.

If you wanted this data, you would have to scrap it from sbrodds, there are some errors, but largely sbrodds is like 99%+ good. Not a terrible difficult thing to scrap.

[dlowilly]

You could spend hours, weeks, and months scouring data for edges or trends, but the best you will do is find break even contrarian systems that will make you want to kill yourself sweating them

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Once you guys realize every game against the pointspread is random you will not lose as much 


If you see how games are won and lost as far as the pointspread it's pure luck in at least 70% of the cases

This fkin guy really should go on Permanent Mute.

Mumbles non-sense every fkin day.

[Bsims]

Thanks for bringing this post back. It reminded me that about 5-6 years ago I made a major effort at analyzing line movements. I got the line movement data by scraping Covers and SBR past data. It was a massive undertaking. So the data is there if you care to dig it out.

I looked for this stuff and so far have only found some of my documentation. I was quite surprised that there was value to this effort (limited then to NBA and MLB). I wondered why I quit if there was money to be made. Then it dawned on me. In January 3014 I had a major medical disaster and was out of commission for 2 years. By then I had forgotten the findings. I guess I'll have to add this to my ever growing list of analytical projects. Now if I can just find the programs.

BTW. Whatever happened
to Irish Tim?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

BSims, good stuff.

One thing re: Gambling. You can always Depart + Return, at your discretion. Don't have to feel bounded.

I speak to Irish Tim occasionally, off the forum. Suffice it to say the guy is doing ok for himself. Extremely bright guy. I always said "If I could invest in Irish Tim stock, I would."

[RudyRuetigger]

once again I had most useful posts in the thread

rest of this is BS

[gauchojake]

once again i had most useful posts in the thread

rest of this is bs

stop

[gdon44]

Would love to hear current thoughts on "BTCL Theory". If u see late line move against your original play:

A) Do u now feel shaky, b/c the market moved in other direction?

B) Do u re-pop it, b/c the Line Value is now better?

Can I answer both? lol. For me it depends on the confidence level when making the initial bet. If there was some variable that I wasn't sure I had properly accounted for (of even if it was even possible to account for) then a -ve line move would act as a confirmation and I would enter sweat mode. However if I feel my numbers are solid then I definitely re-pop.

In other words, there are times I trust my numbers to make a bet even if my gut has doubts, then I look at the line movement to feed the heuristic beast. Those games are a good reminder to me how horrible a bettor I would be if i relied solely on heuristics.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good answer. I'm generally in mode of "If # got more generous...my value is now better." So, worth another 1/2-unit. Thing is, your exposure can get massive if u re-bet at each increment the line gets better.

Like u say, if there's any variable which is now not in your favor...have to hold your breath and hope your bet holds.

[gdon44]

Thing is, your exposure can get massive if u re-bet at each increment the line gets better.

This is exactly it. I'm constantly tweaking my model so (hopefully) someday I'll have the confidence and the bankroll to accept that exposure. Right now I'm not at that place. I think money management plays a huge role in whether you want to ride the line movement train.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i think this suggests the opposite of what you're asking about.. but i'm not sure..

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/odd.../ats/movement/

do you mind sharing with us what you find?

[gojetsgomoxies]

looks like early big faves and small-medium favorites behave oppositely... i may look at the numbers for nfl, nba too.

does killersports.com have opening line? it must, it seems to have everything.

[koreatine]

Sportsinsights

you can pay for a monthly subscription of $150 a month and basically run any kind of line scenario and even back track it as far as several years.