[Bsims]

I said... I'd wager my dik that it won't hit 5,000 again.

I'm a tad worried right now.

Not to worry. No one wants it.

[CashBuilder]

I think it's going to be over $6K in December 2017.

[RonPaul2008]

I wonder if Catalonia not declaring independence today is the reason is receded significantly from the days highs.

[Cookie Monster]

I really do not understand last few days run to BTC. A fork works exactly the same as a stock dividend. It is not "free money". The dividend is already implied in the market price. After excoupon date the price of the stock (now without dividend rights) goes down about the same amount of dividend.

In BTC case, I think those forks are more of a net loss. The community has worries about how the fork will work out. If there is not a clear main coin, the BTC brand would dilute. Still, people is dumping their altcoins (at a loss, after last bad altcoins week) to get into the "free money" train. Beats me.

[raiders72001]

I really do not understand last few days run to BTC. A fork works exactly the same as a stock dividend. It is not "free money". The dividend is already implied in the market price. After excoupon date the price of the stock (now without dividend rights) goes down about the same amount of dividend.

In BTC case, I think those forks are more of a net loss. The community has worries about how the fork will work out. If there is not a clear main coin, the BTC brand would dilute. Still, people is dumping their altcoins (at a loss, after last bad altcoins week) to get into the "free money" train. Beats me.

With a dividend, you get additional shares. With a BTC fork, a second coin is created. The two coins are traded separately.

Prior to the last fork, the price increased until a day or two before the fork. Then there was a drop just before the snapshot.

Of course this doesn't guarantee the same thing will occur this time.

[TheMoneyShot]

With a dividend, you get additional shares. With a BTC fork, a separate coin is created. Each coin is traded individually.

Prior to the last fork, the price increased until a day or two before the fork. Then there was a slight drop just before the snapshot.

Raiders... just a quick question when you have time to answer...


Speaking of the fork back in August. People were concerned what was going to happen exactly? People were unsure about a split... a drop etc.

For example... I'm not using REAL NUMBERS... because I can't remember... but let's just say at the time of the Fork...

BTC = $2,500.00

BCH was formed and opening price was $250.00

After the conversion... BTC should of dropped.... For example....

BTC = $2,250.00

BCH = $250.00

So in all essence... a fork did occur and you basically got the same value?

Isn't that typically what happens when a FORK occurs?

But for some reason.... BTC jumped to like $3,000 and also BCH jumped to $600

That's not suppose to happen... but it did.


My 2nd question.... for people holding onto Bitcoin for the upcoming fork... we shouldn't expect the same outcome... should we? Could it actually end up worse?

What do you expect to happen? A gain? A loss? EVEN? Or you aren't really sure?

Thanks always for your advice!

[MeanPeopleSuck]

I really do not understand last few days run to BTC. A fork works exactly the same as a stock dividend. It is not "free money". The dividend is already implied in the market price. After excoupon date the price of the stock (now without dividend rights) goes down about the same amount of dividend.

In BTC case, I think those forks are more of a net loss. The community has worries about how the fork will work out. If there is not a clear main coin, the BTC brand would dilute. Still, people is dumping their altcoins (at a loss, after last bad altcoins week) to get into the "free money" train. Beats me.

Interesting post. I agree with your analysis that the run up the last few days was caused by people selling alts to buy BTC for the upcoming hard forks.

I also agree with your conclusion that that's a mistake (yesterday I moved several BTC to cash and spent a couple more on alts), but there's one difference between stock dividends and crypto hard forks that largely explains the runup: the vast majority of people who own a stock that issues dividends KNOW that fact; whereas the vast majority of bitcoin owners DON'T KNOW about hard forks.

That means that lots of the splinter fork will never be claimed -- last time I checked, 32% of BCH remains unclaimed -- so the value of the splinter coin for those who do claim it is increased, and that's why everybody wants in on BTC before Bitcoin Gold and B2X happen (I'll write a thread on these hard forks later, so nobody gets screwed).

[MeanPeopleSuck]

Raiders... just a quick question when you have time to answer...


Speaking of the fork back in August. People were concerned what was going to happen exactly? People were unsure about a split... a drop etc.

For example... I'm not using REAL NUMBERS... because I can't remember... but let's just say at the time of the Fork...

BTC = $2,500.00

BCH was formed and opening price was $250.00

After the conversion... BTC should of dropped.... For example....

BTC = $2,250.00

BCH = $250.00

So in all essence... a fork did occur and you basically got the same value?

Isn't that typically what happens when a FORK occurs?

But for some reason.... BTC jumped to like $3,000 and also BCH jumped to $600

That's not suppose to happen... but it did.


My 2nd question.... for people holding onto Bitcoin for the upcoming fork... we shouldn't expect the same outcome... should we? Could it actually end up worse?

What do you expect to happen? A gain? A loss? EVEN? Or you aren't really sure?

Thanks always for your advice!

Good post. If Raiders doesn't mind, I'll take a swipe at answering some of those questions.

I'll answer your second question first: "for people holding onto Bitcoin for the upcoming fork... we shouldn't expect the same outcome... should we? Could it actually end up worse? What do you expect to happen? A gain? A loss? EVEN? Or you aren't really sure?"

1. First things first: there's actually TWO hard forks coming up for bitcoin, the first, called Bitcoin Gold, will happen on October 25th. The second, more important hard fork, Bitcoin 2x (B2X), happens in late November.

2. Nobody knows exactly what the price reaction will be to either of these forks, but I would humbly submit that we shouldn't view the August experience as a template the new hard forks will follow because this situation's totally different. Subject to all the usual "crypto makes fools of us all" admonitions, IMHO, we could easily see the reverse of last time, where this time the total value of BTC + [fork coin] < the value of BTC just before the hf.

3. Why? Because unlike last time, this time nobody's afraid of the forks, so everyone's buying BTC ahead of them. Which brings me to your first question: "Why was the value of BTC + BCH so much greater after the fork than BTC's value before the fork?"

4. Warning: the answer to this question is pretty boring, so if it's satisfying enough, you might want to accept the answer, "for computer geeky tech reasons," and leave it at that.

5. Not enough? OK, but remember I warned you. The reason so much crypto money moved to cash before the hard fork in August was because there was massive worry about inadequate "replay protection," a vulnerability that (used to?) exist immediately after a hard fork that allowed hackers to intercept and resell coins they don't actually own, massively diluting the value of the coin and screwing the buyers of the phantom currency. Wiki, if int: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replay_attack

6. That worry meant that a whole lot of cash was sitting on the sidelines, nervously watching the August hard fork. When the vulnerability turned out to be protected, all that cash came streaming back into BTC (and BCH), igniting the rally to $4k.

7. Since this time around, absolutely nobody's worried about hackers (maybe an over-correction?), that huge pile of money that was sitting on the sidelines watching last time "feels" to me like it's buying BTC now, ahead of the main events.

8. But I could very well be wrong about all of it. Crypto does that to folks. If you've never made a crypto statement that looks stupid today, you've probably not been trading long and your time will come.

[Cookie Monster]

With a dividend, you get additional shares. With a BTC fork, a second coin is created. The two coins are traded separately.

Prior to the last fork, the price increased until a day or two before the fork. Then there was a drop just before the snapshot.

Of course this doesn't guarantee the same thing will occur this time.

I guess my wording was not correct. I was referring about the cash dividend of a stock, not paying the dividend with new stocks. I suppose the better analogy is a conglomerate spinning off a business division. The stockholders of conglomerate get the same number of stocks of the spun-off division, keeping the conglomerate stocks. Of course, the new conglomerate stock will be worth less, by about the same amount of the spun-off stock.

It should happen the same with hard forks. There are two forces at play: The fear that fork would go badly and the hope of "free money". Looks like this time the hope is winning, IMO without good reason. Besides, I think BGold will be worth little as it has minimal support. A lot of new BTC holders will try to sell BGold quickly and there will be few buyers.

[raiders72001]

Raiders... just a quick question when you have time to answer...


Speaking of the fork back in August. People were concerned what was going to happen exactly? People were unsure about a split... a drop etc.

For example... I'm not using REAL NUMBERS... because I can't remember... but let's just say at the time of the Fork...

BTC = $2,500.00

BCH was formed and opening price was $250.00

After the conversion... BTC should of dropped.... For example....

BTC = $2,250.00

BCH = $250.00

So in all essence... a fork did occur and you basically got the same value?

Isn't that typically what happens when a FORK occurs?

But for some reason.... BTC jumped to like $3,000 and also BCH jumped to $600

That's not suppose to happen... but it did.


My 2nd question.... for people holding onto Bitcoin for the upcoming fork... we shouldn't expect the same outcome... should we? Could it actually end up worse?

What do you expect to happen? A gain? A loss? EVEN? Or you aren't really sure?

Thanks always for your advice!

MPS did a great job answering your question. Unfortunately I have no opinion on what will happen directly after the fork.

[shocka1212]

4840... strive for 5k... lets get it fellas.

[MeanPeopleSuck]

$5100.

At the risk of stating the obvious, this is an excellent time to move some money from BTC to cash.

[Chi_archie]

Holy shit

Nice to wake up to

[TheMoneyShot]

I guess that's why I'm not good at investing.

Congrats to everyone who's making a killing on this coin

[Chi_archie]

I guess that's why I'm not good at investing.

Congrats to everyone who's making a killing on this coin

Whe won your Dik?

[bitcoinLuke]

So the max Bitcoin ever reached was near 5k? I think I saw it at $4,975.00 don't know if it ever reached 5k though?

I'll bet my dik that it never reaches 5k again.

This is what you call an arrogant idiot. So confident thats he's right....too stupid to realize how incredibly dumb it was to say "never."
Never came in 3 weeks

Why 7000? Because its an accurate prediction....not just throwing a rock in the ocean

I'll make sure to bump this is in a month when its over 5000, and in 6 months when its 7000.

Took 3 weeks, not even a month.

[bitcoinLuke]

I really do not understand last few days run to BTC. A fork works exactly the same as a stock dividend. It is not "free money". The dividend is already implied in the market price. After excoupon date the price of the stock (now without dividend rights) goes down about the same amount of dividend.

In BTC case, I think those forks are more of a net loss. The community has worries about how the fork will work out. If there is not a clear main coin, the BTC brand would dilute. Still, people is dumping their altcoins (at a loss, after last bad altcoins week) to get into the "free money" train. Beats me.

Couldnt be more wrong here. Feel sorry for people who read this thread for advice

BTC before the last fork $2900

After the fork (day of) =$2700

Price I sold my BCH for = $800 each (went as high as $1200)


$2700 + $800= $3500

How is that less than $2900? But yeah, net loss.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Couldnt be more wrong here. Feel sorry for people who read this thread for advice

BTC before the last fork $2900

After the fork (day of) =$2700

Price I sold my BCH for = $800 each (went as high as $1200)


$2700 + $800= $3500

How is that less than $2900? But yeah, net loss.

Luke come on brother...we are all in the thread to gain knowledge....no need to throw daggers at guys

[Chi_archie]

Luke come on brother...we are all in the thread to gain knowledge....

false. I'm not here to gain knowledge.

I'm here to hopefully meet some good looking gambling females


also, I enjoy Luke's haymakers!!!!

Luke, what does bitcoin do the rest of the day?

[Sam Odom]

sold some at 5199

+23.6% since last buy

[shocka1212]

Bought at $3600 a few weeks ago... gonna be at 6k by years end

[JAKEPEAVY21]

after bitcoin dipped from around 5k to 3k recently, I told myself I'd sell a bitcoin or 2 once it got back to 5k.

Now I'm having trouble pulling the trigger...

[Sam Odom]

jake

just do it

can always buy more before it hits the moon

[JAKEPEAVY21]

sold just under 8k worth

now completely freerolling on all cryptos that I'm holding

still have over 4 bitcoins and not selling those for awhile

[MeanPeopleSuck]

I guess that's why I'm not good at investing.

Congrats to everyone who's making a killing on this coin

Hey, there's nothing wrong with being a bear. A healthy dose of skepticism keeps us all on our toes.

Besides, one of the best TA traders I know thinks bitcoin's a pyramid scheme with an intrinsic value of zero, but that doesn't stop him from buying when his charts start singing.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Jake I'm holding a bit over 4K worth. Should I sell some ?

[MeanPeopleSuck]

jake

just do it

can always buy more before it hits the moon

Excellent advice. I've been selling all morning.

The best price I got was $5220, a price that 24 hours ago we could've debated might not happen in a year.

[MeanPeopleSuck]

Jake I'm holding a bit over 4K worth. Should I sell some ?

IMHO, yes. That way you've got some dry powder to buy back in during the next crash, and there's ALWAYS a next crash.

[MeanPeopleSuck]

sold just under 8k worth

now completely freerolling on all cryptos that I'm holding

still have over 4 bitcoins and not selling those for awhile

Hey, Jake, great to hear, my man! Aren't days like today fun?

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Hey, Jake, great to hear, my man! Aren't days like today fun?

hi MPS..I'm having a bit of seller's remorse but it's never a bad idea to lock up some profits and minimize risk.

I hope all is well with you and yours

[MeanPeopleSuck]

hi MPS..I'm having a bit of seller's remorse but it's never a bad idea to lock up some profits and minimize risk.

I hope all is well with you and yours

Hey, thanks, Jake. It's never a bad idea to sell at an ATH.

People are buying BTC to get Bitcoin Gold, thinking its price will perform like BCH's, but you wanna know a secret? There's excellent reason to believe Bitcoin Gold will disappoint the new buyers and turn out worthless.

[bitcoinLuke]

Bought at $3600 a few weeks ago... gonna be at 6k by years end

Will be higher than that by end up year. Should hit $7000

[Sam Odom]

jake & Sammy missing that $80 per uptick

[bitcoinLuke]

Luke come on brother...we are all in the thread to gain knowledge....no need to throw daggers at guys

No offense, but why not bag on the guys giving false financial advice? These guys aren't giving opinions, they are speaking in absolutes, when they couldn't be further from the facts.

[shocka1212]

$5293.... I'm fully erect