[The Kraken]

Early in the seasons, books don't quite have a feel for teams, so the lines are off and the market is relatively inefficient.

Now granted, we dont know how teams will perform either but it's besides the point for two reasons 1.) We're all dart chuckers anyhow, so may as well be throwing at a mispriced dog, ie the Pats being over +400 in game 1 this year and 2.) Its the time of year our knowledge and understanding of teams is closest to what the books is.

The middle seasons are the absolute worst for value in every sport but MLB. This is because we still have no clue and throw darts while the books get smarter, the market more efficient, early lines get hit and the value disappears, we're left with scraps at the end and paying 5-10% to play. Terrible proposition.

But the end of the year the pendulum slightly swings back into our favor for the sole reason that now we can judge what a team is playing for. This helps. In the mid seasons, teams take games off, players lose interest and you end up with huge favs losing, and honestly there is little way to predict when they might take a game off, ie Spurs. Its a true gamble. Books can afford to lose these games because we pay vig all year, they dont.

But now in NCAAF, all the marbles are out, we know whats at stake. This means in NCAA, this is one of the two times in the year we stand to possibly scratch out an edge.

Pound away this weekend boys

[daneblazer]

Who do you like this week, Kraken?

[The Kraken]

Dane i already gave out OkSt and UW in your other thread

As of now, thats it. Im inclined to bet WVU over Baylor but the lines already moved a few points, ao its probably close to what the closer will be.

WVU still has something to play for, Baylor is toast.

[daneblazer]

Yea surprised you didn't wait until Saturday morning to get that one. +13 is nice.

November is usually my best month, but this week has been a little tougher. Leaning western Michigan & Clemson now.

good luck this week!

[jjgold]

every week is the same

lines priced perfectly

Books NEVER LOSE

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Dane i already gave out OkSt and UW in your other thread

As of now, thats it. Im inclined to bet WVU over Baylor but the lines already moved a few points, ao its probably close to what the closer will be.

WVU still has something to play for, Baylor is toast.

What line did you get on Wash

[sportsfan9698]

I see it differently. Once you understand that sports wagering is a MARKET, and most of each game eventually gets to a net zero in terms of public perception, then you are ahead of the game.

My approach is to NOT "handicap" the game but rather cap the market. That is all I will say on this subject.

[lakerboy]

every week is the same

lines priced perfectly

Books NEVER LOSE

To a degree I agree but at the same time kraken has some good points.

[The Kraken]

every week is the same

lines priced perfectly

Books NEVER LOSE

Bad books lose and bad books go out of business.

I agree that lines are usually pretty spot on. Bad lines don't hang long anywhere except bad books.

The only true exception to this is the early season. Lets be real here, no one can set a great line for the first game or two in any sport. Too many unknowns.

I read that some guys like to wait until they have a feel for things before the bet and I just laugh. By the time any of us have a feel for things, sharps are 5 steps ahead and pound the value out of lines, except week 1

[The Kraken]

I see it differently. Once you understand that sports wagering is a MARKET, and most of each game eventually gets to a net zero in terms of public perception, then you are ahead of the game.

My approach is to NOT "handicap" the game but rather cap the market. That is all I will say on this subject.

I don't entirely disagree. But the goal is to find value and in this market, if you don't have a model, how do you find value? How do you have any idea which way a line is going to move?

[jjgold]

Okl home line does seem too high but what do I know

[jayc88]

Does not matter at all if its beginning, middle or end of the season.
The book always has an edge.
Stupid Post, as if you knew the cowboys would become the best team in the nfl and the browns would loose every single game.