[TPowell]

I can't take this shit anymore. Hours and hours (more like days) of hard work and this shit happens? Finally don't get the best line (-13.5 instead of -12.5) and this happens?

0:43		Zach Pirog Defensive Rebound.	62 - 79
0:36		Daniel Norl made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by KJ Robinson.	65 - 79
0:25		Brian Patrick missed Three Point Jumper.	65 - 79
0:25		Pierson McAtee Offensive Rebound.	65 - 79
0:10		Mason Schoen missed Three Point Jumper.	65 - 79
0:10		Brian Patrick Offensive Rebound.	65 - 79
0:07		Brian Patrick made Two Point Tip Shot.	65 - 81
0:00		Alex Allbery made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Kyler Erickson.	68 - 81
0:00		End of Game	68 - 81

[CanuckG]

It happens. All balances out.

[TPowell]

It happens. All balances out.

NO, I'm tired of hearing that. It absolutely does not balance out. You get a bad beat. That doesn't make it more likely that you are going to get a gift break later on. It just means that you got a shit break. They aren't mutually exclusive. I'm flying off the handle at you right now but your a solid poster and one of my favorites so don't take it the wrong way

[Electrons]

Dude if you are in the game long enough this is an expected risk.

Variance is her name and she's a bitch.

[Vesuvius]

What did you mean by all the hard work.. what did you cap/value the game at?

[kidcudi92]

this your first time betting pal?

[TPowell]

What did you mean by all the hard work.. what did you cap/value the game at?

I capped the game at -20 so I layed 13.5 no problem. They were up 20+ from the 11 min mark to the 1:30 mark......

[Fire in da hole]

TPowell, we've all been there brother..

It hurts, take a break and clear the mind. Come back in a few weeks when you are off tilt and get it back.

[TPowell]

this your first time betting pal?

It feels like it when your sitting at 19-28 on the year and you consistently lose any game that is remotely close.

[lonegambler23]

see you tomorrow

[TPowell]

see you tomorrow

Doubtful, didn't make any plays on the opening lines and very rarely has line movement afterwards created a play for me

[Vesuvius]

I capped the game at -20 so I layed 13.5 no problem. They were up 20+ from the 11 min mark to the 1:30 mark......

Honestly, you were on the right side then. Nothing you can do about that. It is ever so important to get that best line though... cost me on the Bengals game.

[unde0087]

It feels like it when your sitting at 19-28 on the year and you consistently lose any game that is remotely close.

Powell love ya man but it's not even a week into the season and you already have made 47 bets? Maybe that's the problem. I don't see how anyone can have solid plays when we are just seeing all these teams play their first games. Just my 2 cents.

[kidcudi92]

It feels like it when your sitting at 19-28 on the year and you consistently lose any game that is remotely close.

get drunk as fukk,

erase your spreadsheet

come back in the morning

[TPowell]

Powell love ya man but it's not even a week into the season and you already have made 47 bets? Maybe that's the problem. I don't see how anyone can have solid plays when we are just seeing all these teams play their first games. Just my 2 cents.

I get that but that is why I spent DAYS of actual time (weeks of 3-4 hours a night) pouring over these teams top to bottom. I know what they have and how good they are. Some people may not know what they have but I have as good of an idea as anybody else.

[jjgold]

That's why most people do not bet college basketball or NBA

Too many things can happen and too much unpredictability

[TPowell]

If I'm not done, things have to change drastically. For one, I'm not going to be staring at the scores for hours and monitoring pace of play. I'm going to do something else and come back afterwards and evaluate.

[Russian Rocket]

learn how to control your emotions

bet with your head and not with your heart

learn how to quickly forget about your losses and move to the next bet

...and don't ever feel sorry for yourself, your money or the way you lost the game - you should've thought about all these things prior to placing a wager

[Fire in da hole]

Shari said she picks teams by color, it appears to be working for her in BTP.

[kidcudi92]

That's why most people do not bet college basketball or NBA

Too many things can happen and too much unpredictability

yeah other sports aren't unpredictable at all

good call

[trillz]

If I'm not done, things have to change drastically. For one, I'm not going to be staring at the scores for hours and monitoring pace of play. I'm going to do something else and come back afterwards and evaluate.

Sometimes it's easier that way.. I like to watch one game, for instance creighton /Wisconsin and check other scores later

[jjgold]

Most people are wiped out and I warned everyone to stay away

People bet too many games on a daily basis and the bookmaker cleans up

[jeffchitown]

Im waiting till next week personally once we have more data. I did great yesterday hit a 5 game parlay but today lost a lot in real early games. It looks like my only night win will be vandy but even that is getting close now. I guess i still have shot at kansas. Portland -3 i took is not looking great vs bulls. But yeah wait till next week. That is historically my best week of ncaab betting. I will be able to start using early stats and lines won't be sharp by then.

[kidcudi92]

Most people are wiped out and I warned everyone to stay away

People bet too many games on a daily basis and the bookmaker cleans up

this i agree with 100%

i am guilty

[TPowell]

this i agree with 100%

i am guilty

My problem is if my numbers say a line is off and I don't see any red flag, how do you choose what games to play and not play? I'd rather let my numbers have a shot than try to pick and choose what is better than the other.

[newguy]

The start of every season is tough. I used to cap football that same way. I would learn everything about as many teams as I could. Then week 2 and I'm wiped out. I've learned to have a very few specific systems i follow in early weeks and let models sort out things as weeks go on and more actual data (instead of the theoretical data we have pre-season) is known.

[Waterstpub87]

If I'm not done, things have to change drastically. For one, I'm not going to be staring at the scores for hours and monitoring pace of play. I'm going to do something else and come back afterwards and evaluate.

It will get better Powell. I lost for three months straight during MLB while beating the vig free close 55%+. And I mean really lost, like down 30 units lost. Hang in there.

[kidcudi92]

My problem is if my numbers say a line is off and I don't see any red flag, how do you choose what games to play and not play? I'd rather let my numbers have a shot than try to pick and choose what is better than the other.

i am a degen man, I'm sure others can give some info

[unde0087]

I get that but that is why I spent DAYS of actual time (weeks of 3-4 hours a night) pouring over these teams top to bottom. I know what they have and how good they are. Some people may not know what they have but I have as good of an idea as anybody else.

I get it but these are 18-21 year old kids man, that is the one thing you can't cap.

[mngambler]

this your first time betting pal?

I was gonna say the same thing, and someone trusted him with 25k?

[importmoon]

The most dangerous downfall of a gambler was that they think they know sports inside out they know to cut corners how to leverage and if they still lose.. it's luck...that's the time you get buried because you never concede you are a loser...take a deep breath... as long as you still have clams in your bank account and you still have a pulse...you still have a chance...

[Foxx]

46 games is a super small sample man. You are becoming unhinged over mear variance. If you are really beating the closing number as often and by how much you are saying, stick it out a few hundred games at least before you blink. Now if you are betting too much relative to your bankroll where the variance is destroying it, that's your problem.

[Jayvegas420]

Control your emotions

[lakerboy]

Powell remember when you told me the NBA and NFL are impossible but there NCAA is easy?

I repeat the NCAA on hoops is a waste of time

[mpaschal34]

I get that but that is why I spent DAYS of actual time (weeks of 3-4 hours a night) pouring over these teams top to bottom. I know what they have and how good they are. Some people may not know what they have but I have as good of an idea as anybody else.

I say you put those 3-4 extra hours into your work (sounds like it can't be as stressful as this). You will be rewarded much more in the long run. I remember many years ago thinking sports was going to get me rich. Well it didn't.