1. 05-27-16 06:33 PM #36
    Cordoba25
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post

    Just playing, but I get Kansas City 56% (-127), so would want bear minimum of +139.
    Considering you played them at +147, you play some very tight, small margins.

    Have you ever considered wagering less volume by only playing games with higher margins? I wonder if you'd save yourself some losses by only playing games with a larger edge... Then again baseball is a sport with so much variance perhaps it doesn't matter
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  2. 05-27-16 06:34 PM #37
    funnyb25
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    Urias sucks...we will get it back tomorrow...
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  3. 05-27-16 06:36 PM #38
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    damn i got suckered in with the hype...
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  4. 05-27-16 06:37 PM #39
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ghenghis Kahn View Post
    damn i got suckered in with the hype...
    so did LT and a lot of others...i followed the play myself...o well...
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  5. 05-27-16 06:40 PM #40
    mikefan1034
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    Alright I've had enough of LT. This guy needs to leave. Taking a 19 year old kid basically as a favorite in his first road start is absolutely the most ridiculous thing I have ever seen. Kid is one over hyped and awful. Won't even make it out of the first inning lmao Dodgers just ruined this kid. Such a stupid organization. But LT u just showed us all what a dart chucker u really are. Ur system sucks too. Taking Urias19 years old lmao I've seen it all now
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  6. 05-27-16 06:56 PM #41
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post

    Not even close, take a look at 60%ers.

    Washington 65% (-186)
    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post

    In fact, it is NATS that are undervalued according to model if you do not mind laying odds.
    Welp
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  7. 05-27-16 07:05 PM #42
    smitch124
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Diamondbacks??? Noo, I was just about to play Padres. How do feel about Oakland?
    Its a city on the rise, but they have a lot of work to do.
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  8. 05-27-16 07:23 PM #43
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    Urias be lucky to make it through 4 tonight...
    well...2.2 innings..
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  9. 05-27-16 07:31 PM #44
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by smitch124 View Post
    Its a city on the rise, but they have a lot of work to do.
    Thanks, any sites worth seeing?
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  10. 05-27-16 07:38 PM #45
    smitch124
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Thanks, any sites worth seeing?
    well you can see San Francisco from the right places.
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  11. 05-27-16 08:40 PM #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by smitch124 View Post
    well you can see San Francisco from the right places.
    Ha.
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  12. 05-27-16 08:45 PM #47
    funnyb25
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    i just got this alert that danny duffy has a perfect game through 5....i check the scoreboard and i see 5 ER through 6...lol
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  13. 05-27-16 08:58 PM #48
    Professor1215
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    LT,

    How do you combine pitching and batting data?

    For example, if Team A is playing Team B.

    Team A projected runs scored 4.00
    Team A projected runs allowed 2.00

    Team B projected runs scored 2.00
    Team B projected runs allowed 4.00

    (Using really vanilla numbers. I don't want your secrets, just theory and math.)

    If your model spit out these numbers, what would your projected score be? I ask, because it can't be as easy as averaging Team A RS vs Team B RA and vice versa, could it?
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  14. 05-27-16 09:09 PM #49
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    Look at them Dodgers
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  15. 05-27-16 09:15 PM #50
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Look at them Dodgers
    loss
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  16. 05-27-16 09:16 PM #51
    pilebuck13
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    18 hits in braves game 4 runs lmao!
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  17. 05-27-16 09:17 PM #52
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    loss
    thats good for me lol
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  18. 05-27-16 09:23 PM #53
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Diamondbacks??? Noo, I was just about to play Padres. How do feel about Oakland?
    San Diego will win
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  19. 05-27-16 09:44 PM #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    San Diego will win
    So will LAA
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  20. 05-27-16 10:01 PM #55
    funnyb25
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    0-5
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  21. 05-28-16 06:21 AM #56
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    0-5
    Yep, indeed. And I passed on two NBA winners that is had strong leans on without pulling trigger (Cavs + Over), so I went 0-5 overall in real life too. Goodbye to a bit over 12.5% of my bankroll.

    Bartender!
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  22. 05-28-16 06:46 AM #57
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Yep, indeed. And I passed on two NBA winners that is had strong leans on without pulling trigger (Cavs + Over), so I went 0-5 overall in real life too. Goodbye to a bit over 12.5% of my bankroll.

    Bartender!
    basically all my plays were opposite of yours, but I didn't play all of them because you opposed them
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  23. 05-28-16 08:56 AM #58
    Smoke
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    Yikes
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  24. 05-28-16 09:00 AM #59
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    Yikes
    Its all good, Bitcoin up 10% last two days.
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  25. 05-28-16 09:04 AM #60
    Smoke
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Its all good, Bitcoin up 10% last two days.

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  26. 05-28-16 11:29 AM #61
    mlb
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    Haha what?

    20 plays isn't indicative of anything ...
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  27. 05-28-16 12:09 PM #62
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by SharpShark View Post
    I will state another couple of facts now, LTProfits. Feel free to block my account again for stating this (my prior account id was "Anubis"). You are now 6-14 over the past four days. We are now well into the MLB season. The "beginning of the season" excuse cannot be used now for the "model / system." Before following picks, 20 bets is a decent "trial" sample size for evaluating a "capper" (if there exists such a term in a game of inches with a high degree of uncertainty).

    These are mutually exclusive bets. The fact that you have lost six in a row over the past two days has no effect whatsoever in objectively increasing your chance to win the upcoming games. This is why I told you in your "MLB Wednesday 5/25/16" thread to keep your sample size nonsense to yourself. Go ahead and block my account again.
    Oh no he is back!

    Listen, you continue to make ZERO sense. Your main argument against my model being a working one is the timing of when you joined. Suppose that instead of joining 20 plays ago, you would have joined before last baseball season? Then you would now be +98 units over 1300+ plays. Now tell me again why that is irrelevant and a minute 20-play sampling is relevant.
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  28. 05-28-16 12:48 PM #63
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by SharpShark View Post
    Everyone except you is always wrong. You probably even think that mikefan1034's comment about you earlier in this thread is wrong. It is not just that you had a huge 6-14 losing record in 20 bets, but the way you are losing that makes me cringe. Picking 19-year old kid Urias yesterday as a favorite in his first road start is cringeworthy. Especially when you had so many other choices in the 15 MLB games that were played yesterday.

    Mainstream stats and sabermetrics are only a small part of the equation. You have no feel for the game whatsoever. Nevertheless, it is entertaining to see you argue with folks who call you out with facts. Go ahead and block my account again. Enough said.
    No the only FACT that matters is the +98 over 1300 plays. Now THAT is Enough said.
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  29. 05-28-16 01:27 PM #64
    SAX27
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    OH NO....this sad sack of excrement is back, ANUS please, please go away
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  30. 05-28-16 01:37 PM #65
    KVB
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    Successful handicappers tend to get trolled at SBR, it may be part of the game, but it most certainly hurts the credibility of the site.

    Sometimes I wonder if the online books play a part in it.

    Or maybe some posters just don't like winners, could be jealousy, but the way they fly into the face of proven results can be baffling.

    LT keep it going, I had this same problem with Kahn spouting lies over several posts and threads. Finally had to push his shit back in...it went well.

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  31. 05-28-16 02:09 PM #66
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by SharpShark View Post
    Your logic regarding online books playing a part in my posts is counterintuitive and reflects very poorly on you...
    You keep telling readers about how bad a documented winning gambler is behaving, as he's doing it.

    Whether someone put you up to it or you are doing it on your own makes no difference, your behavior and choice of words are ridiculous.

    Don't forget, Ghenghis Kahn is a proven liar and has had his shit pushed in so far he can taste it.

    He was actually proven wrong about me.

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