[chargers4222]

You are truly pathetic. I would say I feel sorry for you, but I really don't. Your model is useless, and a figment of your imagination. There's no other way I can put it.

Furthermore, if you use phrases like "I haven't run this through my model yet," or "my system LOVES this play tonight," you are garbage. Pure, unadulterated trash. I would have more respect for you if you punched me in the face while wearing a "Chemtrails are Real" turtleneck sweater.

If you want to start using a system, invest in a dartboard. If your dart hits an odd number, go with the favorite. Evens, dogs. Bullseye, quit life.

[kidcudi92]

well ya coulda just said who you are talking about lol its pretty obvious

[Sam Odom]

kid is venting

[bookie4ever]

Should I go bigger if dart board and model/system play are on the same side?

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Easy there, Einstein. What do you do? Bet the teams whose jerseys are your favorite color?

It's smart to have a model whereby you can predict your own line for a game. That way, when your line and the Vegas line are significantly apart from one another, you can reasonably ascertain that the oddsmaker is letting you know something is up. It could be an injury or perhaps desperation on the part of one team. Then you use whatever info you can gather to either bet on your model or on the "oddsmaker's wink."

Tonight, for instance in the NHL--No handicapper's model would make the Penguins a -140 favorite on the road in Tampa. Why then are they favored? Because Vegas sees them as the more desperate team (and the Zig Zag theory) and apparently the betting public agrees. My job as a handicapper is to determine if Vegas has over-reacted and made TB a great value. Same thing in the NBA with OkCity getting 2 at home from the Warriors. Doesn't mesh with my model. For me personally, I see value with both home dogs.

[TheMoneyShot]

The only "model" that works.... money management. That's about it.

I heard astronauts use models in space though.

[l7ustin]

Just cuz u dont understand something it doesn't change the validity of whether or not it works. I don't understand gravity or elecricity but i dont get mad and deny their existence or criticize those we do have a firm understanding of these subjects

[jjgold]

KId lost everything

It happens to all of us

[LT Profits]

My baseball model would disagree with you.

[TheMoneyShot]

My baseball model would disagree with you.

LT... get a listing on Ebay pronto. You'll get buyers instantly.

[LT Profits]

LT... get a listing on Ebay pronto. You'll get buyers instantly.

Na, no need. Make enough betting them and post plays here for free.

[TheMoneyShot]

Na, no need. Make enough betting them and post plays here for free.

I always miss your plays man. I'll have to keep an eye out.

I'm serious about the Ebay thing. 1k easily (per buyer) That would be a sh#$load of $.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

i love models...

[thunderous]

You are truly pathetic. I would say I feel sorry for you, but I really don't. Your model is useless, and a figment of your imagination. There's no other way I can put it.

Furthermore, if you use phrases like "I haven't run this through my model yet," or "my system LOVES this play tonight," you are garbage. Pure, unadulterated trash. I would have more respect for you if you punched me in the face while wearing a "Chemtrails are Real" turtleneck sweater.

If you want to start using a system, invest in a dartboard. If your dart hits an odd number, go with the favorite. Evens, dogs. Bullseye, quit life.

LOL so fukking true. Makes me laugh every time I hear those phases...and the best is 'my model disagrees with this play'

[Sam Odom]

the most famous model on SBR was the 'Black Box Model'

[LT Profits]

I always miss your plays man. I'll have to keep an eye out.

I'm serious about the Ebay thing. 1k easily (per buyer) That would be a sh#$load of $.

First plays usually up right before 8:00am ET.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...5-24-16-a.html

[chargers4222]

Should I go bigger if dart board and model/system play are on the same side?

x1.5 units. By the way, I swear I'm not talking about anyone in particular. It's just a general thing that has bothered me for years. Your "system" is not a system if you are still .500. It's a coin that you flipped on the computer using arbitrary numbers.

[chargers4222]

Just cuz u dont understand something it doesn't change the validity of whether or not it works. I don't understand gravity or elecricity but i dont get mad and deny their existence or criticize those we do have a firm understanding of these subjects

Stay out of this Justin.

[chargers4222]

Easy there, Einstein. What do you do? Bet the teams whose jerseys are your favorite color?

It's smart to have a model whereby you can predict your own line for a game. That way, when your line and the Vegas line are significantly apart from one another, you can reasonably ascertain that the oddsmaker is letting you know something is up. It could be an injury or perhaps desperation on the part of one team. Then you use whatever info you can gather to either bet on your model or on the "oddsmaker's wink."

Tonight, for instance in the NHL--No handicapper's model would make the Penguins a -140 favorite on the road in Tampa. Why then are they favored? Because Vegas sees them as the more desperate team (and the Zig Zag theory) and apparently the betting public agrees. My job as a handicapper is to determine if Vegas has over-reacted and made TB a great value. Same thing in the NBA with OkCity getting 2 at home from the Warriors. Doesn't mesh with my model. For me personally, I see value with both home dogs.

That's great. So you're going to go 2-0, right? Because if you don't, you could've flipped a coin and gotten the exact same bets. It means nothing.

[chargers4222]

My baseball model would disagree with you.

You're 138-133. How can you seriously try to make a point here?

[jjgold]

LT's model a long term winner

[PorkChop]

Easy there, Einstein. What do you do? Bet the teams whose jerseys are your favorite color?

It's smart to have a model whereby you can predict your own line for a game. That way, when your line and the Vegas line are significantly apart from one another, you can reasonably ascertain that the oddsmaker is letting you know something is up. It could be an injury or perhaps desperation on the part of one team. Then you use whatever info you can gather to either bet on your model or on the "oddsmaker's wink."

Tonight, for instance in the NHL--No handicapper's model would make the Penguins a -140 favorite on the road in Tampa. Why then are they favored? Because Vegas sees them as the more desperate team (and the Zig Zag theory) and apparently the betting public agrees. My job as a handicapper is to determine if Vegas has over-reacted and made TB a great value. Same thing in the NBA with OkCity getting 2 at home from the Warriors. Doesn't mesh with my model. For me personally, I see value with both home dogs.

All Vegas is does is move lines to make money even. Vegas adjusts to the public, not the other way around

[tb1984]

Easy there, Einstein. What do you do? Bet the teams whose jerseys are your favorite color?

It's smart to have a model whereby you can predict your own line for a game. That way, when your line and the Vegas line are significantly apart from one another, you can reasonably ascertain that the oddsmaker is letting you know something is up. It could be an injury or perhaps desperation on the part of one team. Then you use whatever info you can gather to either bet on your model or on the "oddsmaker's wink."

Tonight, for instance in the NHL--No handicapper's model would make the Penguins a -140 favorite on the road in Tampa. Why then are they favored? Because Vegas sees them as the more desperate team (and the Zig Zag theory) and apparently the betting public agrees. My job as a handicapper is to determine if Vegas has over-reacted and made TB a great value. Same thing in the NBA with OkCity getting 2 at home from the Warriors. Doesn't mesh with my model. For me personally, I see value with both home dogs.

I think you pretty much said that models are just part of it. For me, like you said that you can handicap players' skills but it's hard to handicap players' mentalities(it's easier in the playoffs than in the regular season).

Players' mentalities are so uncertain, so that's why books make money off of those uncertainties.

For me, it's 50% skills and 50% mentality. If a star player's mind does not want to play, I think he's pretty much just an average player.

[LT Profits]

You're 138-133. How can you seriously try to make a point here?

+93 units last year based strictly on unit per game. And forget the 138-133 and concentrate on the +13.80 YTD. Last year on this date I was at +16.97, so not far off.

[lakerboy]

I don't need a model to tell me when vegas puts out a bullshit line.

[PorkChop]

I don't need a model to tell me when vegas puts out a bullshit line.

Bingo

[Itsamazing777]

I don't need a model to tell me when vegas puts out a bullshit line.

I don't use one either, but Based on your record here over the years, you need one. Sorry man.... Calling a couple Okc wins doesn't change anything long term. Good luck though.

[lakerboy]

I don't use one either, but Based on your record here over the years, you need one. Sorry man.... Calling a couple Okc wins doesn't change anything long term. Good luck though.

Thx man. I did pretty good all year in nba and nhl. I have posted winning threads many times and losing ones. It's all good I don't get rattled here. Fade/tail or ignore( which few can do)

[Itsamazing777]

Perhaps you've righted the ship Good luck.

[t-wizzle]

Chargers with the post of the year.

[INVEGA MAN]

I have a great system in baseball. Posted some baseball bets & won over 100 units to those who followed me. Baseball is the best sport to make money

[GunShard]

The only "model" that works.... money management. That's about it.

I heard astronauts use models in space though.

Agreed. Money management is the only model that's important.
One of my rules of sports betting that everyone should try out:

1. Money management. Bet less than 5% of your total current bankroll per bet. Use Kelly Criterion Calculator.


For example:
If your total bankroll is $2000.
5% of your $2000 is $100.
If you lose your $100 bet, now you have $1900.
5% of your $1900 is $95.
Now you bet $95 instead of $100 because of your total current bankroll has changed.
Bet like this and you can either slowly gain or slowly lose but can never be completely broke.

[juicername]

I'm curious, how do you guys who "don't believe in models" handicap games?

[chargers4222]

I'm curious, how do you guys who "don't believe in models" handicap games?

I'm curious, what's your model? Please share with the class. What's your algorithm, bro? How's it working for you? Why aren't you in Las Vegas doing this full-time if you have a statistical formula that provides you with winners?

[chargers4222]

+93 units last year based strictly on unit per game. And forget the 138-133 and concentrate on the +13.80 YTD. Last year on this date I was at +16.97, so not far off.

You have won 138 picks and lost 133 picks. If I flipped a coin 271 times, I would have literally the exact same results. Your model and your system means nothing, I'm sorry to break it to you.