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KVB's Super Bowl Analysis
First a couple of posts from the past talking about the anticipated line movement…
Originally Posted by KVB
For the Super Bowl I have Carolina winning the game with 31 points to Denver’s 20 points. Most forecasts, including unsophisticated lines and more sophisticated measures that tend to go around the block to get next door, have Carolina winning by less with a 3 to 5 point margin. My forecast also differs from most in that I predict a 51 point game. Almost everyone has a 45 point projection.
It is my belief that the defenses are essentially equal at this moment in time and the difference between the two teams is offensive.
The line has moved from a very early opener of -3.5 and 4 most places to a current 5.5 after bouncing off of 6 points. Not surprisingly, this line has moved towards my line with enough money to hit 6 points. As this line has climbed, Denver backers have felt they have gotten a better and better deal.
Truthfully, while 4.5 is better than 4, it doesn’t significantly improve for the underdog until it hits 6. Despite this, those unsophisticated lines of 3 or 5 points along with a certain crop of subjective bettors are still buying Denver.
In a sense, the rather unsophisticated Denver backers are getting screwed. They sucked up 4 and 4.5 points thinking it was a great deal. Now they are buying 5.5, thinking it is a better deal. It seems at all stops, the Denver spread backer is getting used by a sharper marketplace.
There appears to be enough underdog support to hold the line at 5.5 but I doubt it closes here. The bookmakers may be trying to get some analysts to second guess their good Carolina number. The reason they second guess is that the book is using certain techniques, aimed at them, to imply an upset is in the marketplace. Books are keeping some groups on their toes.
Another reason we are at 5.5 has to do with what seems to be a Super Bowl tradition. My information confirms that those who like the underdog are getting the moneyline while those who like the favorite are buying the spread. The moneyline for Denver is over 2-1 in many places. Psychologically, over +200 can seem great but in this case is not a good deal, but with so few knowing that, the books want to prevent raising that moneyline and have to hold back on the spread a little. Further, less than 6 feels like a good buy for the favorite, and is to some.
It seems the books are welcoming the traditional Super Bowl action. This should be taken into account.
So whose money is where? The sharps with a plan are on Carolina and have a good price. Unsophisticated forecasters never saw Carolina as a good deal, but can make a case for Denver. The subjective public and everything else out there are pretty split. There are those who like Carolina and those who like the Denver moneyline.
What else could have stopped the market at 6 and forced it back down to 5.5? As the Carolina playoff dominance fades from the storyline and the topic of hate for Newton arises among the talking heads the underground story of Denver’s redemption and number one defense, which is known to win Super Bowls, is all the rage. Many bettors started taking Denver and the storyline may have triggered some bigger money bets looking for a potential middle or bail out for the favorite.
Anyone chiming in now likes that underdog while many feel the Carolina value is evaporating (and it has a little). With the memory of a couple of years ago even the most sophisticated bettors know how things like the last Denver Super Bowl tend to even out, if you will. Some of those sophisticated players selling back are additional pressure on Denver.
I think the oddsmakers passed a candle to the books in which they went from selling Carolina to actually selling the Denver Broncos. Psychologically, first impressions are hard to change and I think those contrarian bettors with a first impression of an upset line are simply emboldened by the storyline this week.
I bought Carolina to win by 4 points very early in anticipation of the line movement. I am not the only one and from here only a few would buy more Carolina. Yet many would begin to pick up Denver at these levels.
The Total for the game is at 44.5 in a lot of places. This has moved away from my line of 51. It did take some money to move downward off of 45 but I think this is more perception and has to do with the bettors playing right now. Those seeking Denver will be counting on defense and anticipate a lower scoring game. The drop to 44.5 confirms that Denver type thinking is in the marketplace and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that line move upward again, with sharper money.
By game time two things could happen. Big final money could set the market and push the line to 6 or 6.5, toward 7 and any late steam will have zero value, a pure gamble on the favorite, a push waiting to happen for the dog and a sucker upset moneyline bet develops. If the line drops it may create steam towards Denver, increasing Denver money.
Either way, the Denver moneyline looks very risky. In terms of the Total, a drop to 44 would be significant in my book and others may interpret this to be a Denver style game, increasing money on Denver.
In my opinion, the cat is out of the bag with Denver and I am happy with Carolina -4. My metrics have a strong indication that my moneyline prediction is correct and I would not pick up the Denver moneyline at this point, no matter how sweet of a story it would become. A strong Denver effort in a back door cover would be story enough for the public.
Of course, such a strong indication on the Carolina moneyline would make the contrarian in me look at Denver.
It seems like all I’ve been doing finding reasons to by Denver at this point. How does that usually work out?
Good Luck.
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