1. 01-19-16 02:19 PM #1
    Antibet
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    Cardinals to win Super Bowl 50 at +413

    544427182-1
    6    		 12:18pm 19-Jan-16 12:00pm 24-Jan-16 Future Football Props - NFL - Futures - Cardinals.... +413 500.00 2,065.00 Pending
    NFL
    Futures
    Cardinals to win Super Bowl 50?
    Yes vs No
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  2. 01-19-16 02:20 PM #2
    gauchojake
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    I like it
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  3. 01-19-16 03:16 PM #3
    StackinGreen
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    I love it. My book is only offering +350. On a different post, I did the quick math about how bad the KC line was pre-NE game.

    Let's try it again. This week, Arizona is roughly +140. If New England beats Denver by say, a TD, and Arizona wins the game by 3 or 7 vs. Carolina, I'd say the Super Bowl would be New England -3 because of history and current biases. That sets up another money line of around +145, just to be conservative with an average (although most people bet more on the dog ML than on the spread in the Super Bowl)

    So, doing the math we have 2.4 x 2.45 -1 = +488

    To win both games.

    Again, it shows you why futures are so horrible. It's better to bet the games alone, even on the money line. Think about the edge there, they should be giving you almost 5-1 and they are giving you 7-2. It's an extra 25-30% edge for them. Crazy.
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  4. 01-19-16 03:44 PM #4
    Antibet
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    I know about the props bets, and it's good point. On the other hand, if Denver wins, Arizona would probably be a pk to win the Superbowl.

    I'm also betting Arizona ML in both games, if they manage to get to the Superbowl
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  5. 01-19-16 04:07 PM #5
    Antibet
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    So if Denver wins, it's going to be (assuming that Arizona would be ~ -110 to win)

    2.4 x 1.90 - 1 = +356

    488 +356 / 2 = +422

    so +413 Pinnacle price is about right
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  6. 01-19-16 04:18 PM #6
    KingJD31
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    on it although lost a little trust in palmer
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  7. 01-19-16 04:23 PM #7
    mngambler
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    They won't make it past this weekend
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  8. 01-19-16 04:34 PM #8
    Kermit
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    I placed $100 at +450 at the MGM last week.
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  9. 01-19-16 04:54 PM #9
    gauchojake
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    I don't really bet props or futures, so forgive my ignorance on this...What is the difference between betting a future for AZ to win the SB and betting AZ vs. the field to win the SB? Heritage has both options but at different odds. Seems like the same bet to me.
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  10. 01-19-16 05:09 PM #10
    POOLSIDE
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    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    I don't really bet props or futures, so forgive my ignorance on this...What is the difference between betting a future for AZ to win the SB and betting AZ vs. the field to win the SB? Heritage has both options but at different odds. Seems like the same bet to me.
    Same bet. Are they different odds?
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  11. 01-19-16 06:01 PM #11
    gauchojake
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    Quote Originally Posted by POOLSIDE View Post
    Same bet. Are they different odds?
    Yes. AZ Future +405, AZ vs Field at +430
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  12. 01-19-16 06:42 PM #12
    beantown_boss16
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    Bad wager....think about it....they are +140 this week so 100 gets you back 240. They will be touchdown underdogs to the pats and at least +220 ml 240 to win +220 gets you back significantly more than +413... just saying.
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  13. 01-19-16 06:49 PM #13
    Kermit
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    Quote Originally Posted by beantown_boss16 View Post
    Bad wager....think about it....they are +140 this week so 100 gets you back 240. They will be touchdown underdogs to the pats and at least +220 ml 240 to win +220 gets you back significantly more than +413... just saying.
    You think? KC wasn't even a TD dog to the Pats at Gillette Stadium. Arizona IMO is a much better team than KC is and that game would be on neutral ground.

    And of course the Pats winning this week is still speculation. I would imagine that if the Cards and Denver both win this week that the spread would probably be a pick or possibly the Cards as the favorite.
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  14. 01-19-16 06:53 PM #14
    beantown_boss16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kermit View Post
    You think? KC wasn't even a TD dog to the Pats at Gillette Stadium. Arizona IMO is a much better team than KC is.

    And of course the Pats winning this week is still speculation. I would imagine that if the Cards and Denver both win this week that the spread would probably be a pick or possibly the Cards as the favorite.
    If denver wins its a good wager...but after looking at manning I don't see it happening. I'm from boston, but not a patriots honk..they are getting healthier and should win. Id be surprised if the line was anything other than -7 patriots over arizona....brady going home to san fran for another ring...lots of new york/east coast money will be on patriots.....carson palmer? No comparison qb wise...vegas and books will get killed hanging anything lower.
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  15. 01-19-16 07:02 PM #15
    Thunderground
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    Quote Originally Posted by StackinGreen View Post
    I love it. My book is only offering +350. On a different post, I did the quick math about how bad the KC line was pre-NE game.

    Let's try it again. This week, Arizona is roughly +140. If New England beats Denver by say, a TD, and Arizona wins the game by 3 or 7 vs. Carolina, I'd say the Super Bowl would be New England -3 because of history and current biases. That sets up another money line of around +145, just to be conservative with an average (although most people bet more on the dog ML than on the spread in the Super Bowl)

    So, doing the math we have 2.4 x 2.45 -1 = +488

    To win both games.

    Again, it shows you why futures are so horrible. It's better to bet the games alone, even on the money line. Think about the edge there, they should be giving you almost 5-1 and they are giving you 7-2. It's an extra 25-30% edge for them. Crazy.

    I sincerely doubt that the line would be NE -3. Those Cards wouldn't be coming off a so-so win over GB, but off a road win at 15-1 Carolina... That could quite easily make them the favorites for the SB.
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  16. 01-19-16 07:03 PM #16
    JMon
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    I like this bet too, placing it now.
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  17. 01-19-16 07:26 PM #17
    imadegen
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    I think they win this weekend. I just don't trust palmer 100%
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  18. 01-19-16 07:27 PM #18
    beantown_boss16
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    Had green bay won the coin toss in ot the cardinals wouldn't even be playing.
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  19. 01-19-16 07:35 PM #19
    Kermit
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    Quote Originally Posted by beantown_boss16 View Post
    Had green bay won the coin toss in ot the cardinals wouldn't even be playing.
    C'mon man.

    They hit a Hail Mary to tie the game. Green Bay only managed 13 points through almost 4 quarters of play until that fluke at the end of the 4th. What were they going to do? Hit another Hail Mary in OT?
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  20. 01-19-16 07:36 PM #20
    Renegades
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    NE will be faves over either nfc team just because of perception and pedigree
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  21. 01-19-16 07:36 PM #21
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    Small fav though
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  22. 01-19-16 07:38 PM #22
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kermit View Post
    C'mon man.

    They hit a Hail Mary to tie the game. Green Bay only managed 13 points through almost 4 quarters of play until that fluke at the end of the 4th. What were they going to do? Hit another Hail Mary in OT?
    lol,,,geez is that all.
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  23. 01-19-16 07:39 PM #23
    beantown_boss16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kermit View Post
    C'mon man.

    They hit a Hail Mary to tie the game. Green Bay only managed 13 points through almost 4 quarters of play until that fluke at the end of the 4th. What were they going to do? Hit another Hail Mary in OT?
    They did 2 the 4th and 20 from the 2 and then into the end zone right in front of peterson back to back...why not 3?
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  24. 01-19-16 07:40 PM #24
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    I like this bet too, placing it now.
    @ +425
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  25. 01-19-16 07:40 PM #25
    beantown_boss16
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    Palmer hasn't won anything just remember that...
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  26. 01-19-16 07:40 PM #26
    Kermit
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    Quote Originally Posted by beantown_boss16 View Post
    They did 2 the 4th and 20 from the 2 and then into the end zone right in front of peterson back to back...why not 3?
    LOL. I guess it could have been possible.
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  27. 01-19-16 07:43 PM #27
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by beantown_boss16 View Post
    Palmer hasn't won anything just remember that...
    No one has won anything until they have won their fist.
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  28. 01-19-16 11:05 PM #28
    BankrollMafia
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    Goodluck bruh. I like it, took AZ to win superbowl myself at +450 before the wildcard round.
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  29. 01-19-16 11:54 PM #29
    JIBBBY
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    5 dimes futures real time -
    Sun 1/24 25001 Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl +211
    3:00PM 25002 Field wins Super Bowl 50 -241
    Sun 1/24 25003 New England Patriots win Super Bowl +204
    3:00PM 25004 Field wins Super Bowl 50 -234
    Sun 1/24 25005 Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl +344
    3:00PM 25006 Field wins Super Bowl 50 -409
    Sun 1/24 25007 Denver Broncos win Super Bowl +439
    3:00PM 25008 Field wins Super Bowl 50 -537
    Sun 1/24 25009 New England or Carolina wins Super Bowl -173
    3:00PM 25010 Denver or Arizona wins Super Bowl +153
    Sun 1/24 25011 New England or Arizona wins Super Bowl -120
    3:00PM 25012 Denver or Carolina wins Super Bowl +100


    I took a stab with Carolina myself for a couple hundy -

    Pending1/24/16 3:00pm NFL Props Football 25001 Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl +211* vs Field wins Super Bowl 50
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  30. 01-20-16 12:24 AM #30
    FlyinAir
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    Denver or Carolina wins Super Bowl +100
    Denver Broncos win Super Bowl +439
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  31. 01-20-16 12:27 AM #31
    The Giant
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    Quote Originally Posted by beantown_boss16 View Post
    Bad wager....think about it....they are +140 this week so 100 gets you back 240. They will be touchdown underdogs to the pats and at least +220 ml 240 to win +220 gets you back significantly more than +413... just saying.
    There is no chance the Patriots would be a touchdown favorite over Arizona.
    Points Awarded:

    POOLSIDE gave The Giant 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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  32. 01-20-16 01:08 AM #32
    GunShard
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    The best time to bet NFL super bowl futures is during the off season.
    But of course it's very hard to predict since it's so far back in time.
    Cardinals were 25 to 1 odds during the off season and Panthers were at 40 to 1 odds.
    http://www.nj.com/giants/index.ssf/2...s_high_on.html
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  33. 01-20-16 01:16 AM #33
    Goat Milk
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    I would not bet against Brady in a superbowl at this stage in his career no matter what.
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  34. 01-20-16 02:04 AM #34
    POOLSIDE
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    Quote Originally Posted by beantown_boss16 View Post
    Id be surprised if the line was anything other than -7 patriots over arizona.....
    Hahahahhahahaha okay bro cool story lol. This game would be Pats -10 in Foxboro and Pats -4 in Arizona? No wonder the books clean up year after year. Unreal.
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  35. 01-20-16 06:31 AM #35
    Plopowitz
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    Respectfully, I see no way ARI favorite over NE, regardless of ARI performance this week. Good luck!!
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