[Ballerholic]

Jets -2.5 $30 to win $27

[Ballerholic]

Rams +3.5 $30 to win $27

[Ballerholic]

Nets +11 $30 to win $27

[Ballerholic]

Baylor -3 $30 to win $27

[Ballerholic]

YTD: 69-74 -$415. Time to turn this ship around. I've been on a very bad run recently and it has to do with lack of discipline. Tonight I'm playing the under and I'll also play Villanova at a good price.

Redskins-Cowboys Under 42 $28.50 to win $26

I've gone over all of the MNF this past season and I've found that the under hits above 60% of the time.

[Ballerholic]

Villanova -4 $28.5 to win $26

[charcoalbbq]

all monday night games this season or in the history of nfl?

[snip3r2006]

...

[Ballerholic]

When I posted I wasn't exactly accurate, the under has hit at 83% so far this season. Thursday Night Football has hit at 72% before the Packers-Lions game and we all know why that under didn't hit. I've always heard people say these games go under, but not until I checked it have I been assured. Now it is a small sample size, but it's a trend I'm going to follow tonight. Obviously it won't always win, but if it is hitting at over 60% then we'll win long term.

Villanova pick- I'm going to start posting write-ups with the picks again. I'm taking Villanova tonight following the trend of picking the lower ranked team at home. As well, Kenpom have Villanova as being the #1 team in the country. As you can see the majority of the money is on Oklahoma and that is definitely a bonus.

I may have two more picks depending on what else I find.

[Ballerholic]

Pistons +2.5 $28.5 to win $26

Jefferson is out and Kemba is doubtful. Without those 2 I don't see the Hornets keeping up, especially with Lin at the point.

Pelicans +1 $28.5 to win $26

The Pelicans are finally healthy and playing at home. They beat the Cavs last time out, and although the Celtics are good they haven't been too dominant on the road. Lee is out and it's possible Bradley is as well.

[charcoalbbq]

When I posted I wasn't exactly accurate, the under has hit at 83% so far this season. Thursday Night Football has hit at 72% before the Packers-Lions game and we all know why that under didn't hit. I've always heard people say these games go under, but not until I checked it have I been assured. Now it is a small sample size, but it's a trend I'm going to follow tonight. Obviously it won't always win, but if it is hitting at over 60% then we'll win long term.

Villanova pick- I'm going to start posting write-ups with the picks again. I'm taking Villanova tonight following the trend of picking the lower ranked team at home. As well, Kenpom have Villanova as being the #1 team in the country. As you can see the majority of the money is on Oklahoma and that is definitely a bonus.

I may have two more picks depending on what else I find.

I know for a fact that last season it was more over than under. I am pretty sure over 60% last season and the same the season before.

[Ballerholic]

yea just checked now and you're right the overs hit like crazy last year. This year they must be regressing towards the mean. This is a great example of a small sample size. Thanks for letting me know, I'll stop capping based on that.

[Ballerholic]

Clippers -4 $28.5 to win $26

Paul and Reddick are back. The Clips have not been good on the road, but that is when they've shorthanded.

[Ballerholic]

YTD: 70-77 -$469.5. Bad day. I need to turn things around before things get very bad. Let's not get to 500 in the hole.

Virginia -4 $27.5 to win $25

Virginia are the better team and have been tested against Ohio St. on the road while West Virginia have yet to play a good team.

[Ballerholic]

Maryland -1.5 $27 to win $25

Maryland have been tested away from home when they played NC. To be fair they played well there and they also have a win against georgetown. UCONN lost to syracuse and were down big at half to an overrated Gonzaga.

[Ballerholic]

Grizzlies +2.5 $27.5 to win $25

[Ballerholic]

YTD: 72-78 -$447. Finally we have a winning day. I'll definitely have a few plays for tonight.

Bulls +3 $28.5 to win $25.5

[Ballerholic]

Magic +4.5 $27.5 to win $26.5

[Ballerholic]

Lakers +7.5 $33 to win $30

Bucks-Clippers Under 200 $33 to win $30

Celtics-Bulls Under 200.5 $28 to win $25.5

[Ballerholic]

YTD: 74-81 -$480. A huge batch of plays for tonight. I'm going to start using system plays I just came up with so I hope our luck can change using them.

Vikings +10 $31.5 to win $30

[Ballerholic]

Bulls +1.5 $32.50 to win $30

76ers +7 $31.50 to win $28.5

Hawks +7.5 $31.50 to win $28.5

Kings-Knicks Under 209 $35.50 to win $32.5

[Ballerholic]

YTD: 77-83 -$444.50. A nice one unit winning day. So far there are four systems I use to select plays. System A, B, C and D. I will post all play with each system. System A will based on ref assignments, System B will be based on road dogs, System C will be based on fading public road dogs and System D will be my personal top plays.

[Manny0825]

Good luck with your new system. Sounds interesting.

[Ballerholic]

Thanks man it definitely will be. System A plays I believe will be the most effective considering how it's done so far while system B should be near as effective. It's tough for me to backtrack System C plays as I don't know of any websites that show past consensus on games. System D I expect to be in the positive when I'll only be posting only my top spot plays.

[Ballerholic]

Again, I only have 6 more losses than wins. I can definitely still turn this ship around. I'm down a lot because I used to have much higher units until I went on my losing streak.

[charcoalbbq]

get it back with a $500 play of the week. play only top plays. others will kill you with juice over long term.

[Ballerholic]

Okay here we have our system plays. BOL to all

System A

Suns-Trailblazers Under 209 $31 to win $28

Wizards +2.5 $31 to win $28

System B

Bucks +7.5 $31 to win $28

Lakers +14.5 $32.50 to win $29.50

System D

Magic +3 $29.50 to win $27

Celtics +5 $29.50 to win $27

[Ballerholic]

get it back with a $500 play of the week. play only top plays. others will kill you with juice over long term.

haha $500 play of the week. You're right though, I need to only play my best plays. It's just I always want to play my top plays of the night, even though they may not be anywhere near my best plays for the week.

[Ballerholic]

YTD: 80-85 -$422.50. A nothing 1 unit winning night making that two in a row for us. There should be a good amount of plays going tonight so stay tuned.

System A- YTD: 2-0 +$56

System B- YTD: 1-1 -$4.50

SystemC- N/A

System D- YTD: 0-1 -$29.50

[Ballerholic]

System C

Kentucky -13 $29.50 to win $27

Georgetown -10.5 $29.50 to win $27

James Madison -6 $29.50 to win $27

[Ballerholic]

System A

Hornets-Celtics Under 203 $29.5 to win $27

System C

Kent St. -7.5 $29.5 to win $27

[Ballerholic]

System A

Wizards +6.5 $29.50 to win $27

System B

Lakers +11.5 $29.50 to win $27

Pelicans +7 $29.50 to win $27

[Ballerholic]

System C

Arkansas -14.5 $29.50 to win $27

[Ballerholic]

System D

*In Play Warriors ML $35 to win $26

[Ballerholic]

System A

Blazers-Knicks Under 198 $29.50 to win $27

System C

Gonzaga -7.5 $29.50 to win $26