[Otters27]

Guy just dominated the Padres.

[Vegas39]

oh jesus

[d2bets]

Guy just dominated the Padres.

Guy's given up 5 runs in his last 3 starts.

Arrieta has allowed 4 in his last 12 starts.

[CanuckG]

If you look at his adjusted ERA Greinke is ranked 4th in the past 20 years. Arrieta 6th.

Greinke went at least 6 innings in every start.

24 starts of at least 6 IP 2 ER.21 starts of at least 6 IP 1 ER.
12 starts of at least 6 scoreless IP.

2.57 era in his losses. 1.91 in 10 ND's.


By fangraphs RA-9 WAR he finishes at 10.1 and 6.53 WPA
for comparison Harper is 9.4 WAR and 6.29 WPA
Arrieta is 9.4 WAR and 5.38 WPA
Kershaw is 7.7 WAR and 4.75 WPA

With all that being said I can still see Arrieta edging out Greinke. Absolute incredible race in the NL. Price should win the AL but I could see Keuchel edging him out there.

[Jeffie]

Grienke won't get it but what a fukin year he had.

[d2bets]

If you look at his adjusted ERA Greinke is ranked 4th in the past 20 years. Arrieta 6th.

Greinke went at least 6 innings in every start.

24 starts of at least 6 IP 2 ER.21 starts of at least 6 IP 1 ER.
12 starts of at least 6 scoreless IP.

2.57 era in his losses. 1.91 in 10 ND's.


By fangraphs RA-9 WAR he finishes at 10.1 and 6.53 WPA
for comparison Harper is 9.4 WAR and 6.29 WPA
Arrieta is 9.4 WAR and 5.38 WPA
Kershaw is 7.7 WAR and 4.75 WPA

With all that being said I can still see Arrieta edging out Greinke. Absolute incredible race in the NL. Price should win the AL but I could see Keuchel edging him out there.

Greinke pitches at Dodger Stadium in an easier division.
Arrieta had the better road ERA.

And Arrieta's 2nd half run is just too historic. His absurd 0.41 ERA in Aug/Sep/Oct is just too ridiculous. Next closest over that time in modern baseball is 0.92 or something like that. Not even close. And then there's the 22 wins. Only 5 pitchers have ever posted 22+ wins, 6 or fewer losses and a sub-2 ERA. Gooden was last in 1985.

[KeyElement]

Arrieta by a mile, unless the writers are as stupid as the last two N.L. All Star managers that left him off that team. If Arrieta does not get it then conspiracy buffs will have a field day, and I may join them. A much tougher division and many more hitters parks than Greinke, who I thought had it locked up two months ago. If anyone else sneaks in there, including Kershaw, the writers will only be confessing to their own ignorance and/or pre-conceived bias.

[JameisBrady]

Arrieta by a mile, unless the writers are as stupid as the last two N.L. All Star managers that left him off that team. If Arrieta does not get it then conspiracy buffs will have a field day, and I may join them. A much tougher division and many more hitters parks than Greinke, who I thought had it locked up two months ago. If anyone else sneaks in there, including Kershaw, the writers will only be confessing to their own ignorance and/or pre-conceived bias.

nailed it. to act like Arrieta stepping up his performance in the highest leverage part of the season isn't worthy of a Cy is shameful.

[Ratpack]

like i said in another thread arrieta should get cy young and kershaw and greinke should get co mvp

[JAKEPEAVY21]

quoting a Jayson Stark article from a few days ago before Greinke and Arrieta's last start:

" the season didn't start Aug. 1, or June 21, or whatever date you think Arrieta morphed into Christy Mathewson. It started in April. And over this entireseason, Greinke is the man with the slightly better ERA, adjusted ERA, WHIP and opponent OPS. Can we keep in mind that Greinke's 1.68 ERA would be the best since Greg Maddux's 1.63 masterpiece 20 years ago? That Greinke's 0.85 WHIP would be one of the five best in the live-ball era? That his ERA has never started with a "2" after any start all season? Just passing that along for everyone who thinks there's no way anyone but Arrieta should possibly win. Got it? Great. Now start typing those emails."

[LT Profits]

Greinke is better metrically but Arrieta will get Cy Young because he is only 20-game winner, writers that vote on these things put more weight on wins than they should.