1. 09-19-15 03:34 PM #1
    The Kraken
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    THIS is why the HOUSE never loses

    September 2015
    Day WLT Pct Net Winning Record
    09/19/2015 187-219-0 46.06 % -62.07 Details
    09/18/2015 50-86-0 36.76 % -46.16 Details
    09/17/2015 141-176-0 44.48 % -54.74 Details
    09/14/2015 139-292-0 32.25 % -232.65 Details
    09/13/2015 2118-1459-0 59.21 % 701.71 Details
    09/12/2015 833-981-27 45.92 % -300.91 Details
    09/11/2015 38-20-0 65.52 % 21.90 Details
    09/10/2015 91-140-1 39.39 % -98.90 Details

    Totals: 3597-3373-28 51.61 % -71.82


    09/13/2015 is a statistical outlier and not likely to repeat itself.... But still, collectively we're negative 6 out of the 8 days, down 71.82 units and in statistically speaking, should be down closer to 500 units

    Want to win?

    Start booking the squares here (me included)
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  2. 09-19-15 03:36 PM #2
    jjgold
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    Be patient

    Get good number

    Stay positive
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  3. 09-19-15 03:56 PM #3
    The Kraken
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    JJ, this isn't about me or any one gambler

    This is the big picture, a birds eye view

    JJ, the house never loses

    JJ, can you post your spreadsheet in here please? I haven't seen it in any threads lately and I'd like to use it as exhibit B for making my point

    Thanks JJ
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  4. 09-19-15 04:14 PM #4
    Optional
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    Why do you write off Sep 13 as an outlier?

    It has by far the most data and being College games more of the picks are probably from people who have some clue about those games, rather than mugs like me who don't know a lot about football and usually guess the NFL games.

    Books might win but tipping comp stats aren't proof of anything.

    In real life bookmakers aren't money printing presses like people think. Many struggle to do much more than pay the bills and keep operating cashflow.
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  5. 09-19-15 04:42 PM #5
    pavyracer
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    House has dozen of players like JJGOLD. Bet the worst lines, reload every week, spend all their money on gambling, bet losers.
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  6. 09-19-15 11:30 PM #6
    The Kraken
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Why do you write off Sep 13 as an outlier?

    It has by far the most data and being College games more of the picks are probably from people who have some clue about those games, rather than mugs like me who don't know a lot about football and usually guess the NFL games.

    Books might win but tipping comp stats aren't proof of anything.

    In real life bookmakers aren't money printing presses like people think. Many struggle to do much more than pay the bills and keep operating cashflow.
    I note it as an outlier because it is. If we were to look specifically at BTP and had historical data, maybe SBR has this I dunno, say for the last 2-3 years, and we were to create a scatter chart, it would absolutely be an outlier. Regardless of how you want to define an outlier, it would fit the bill. I wouldnt be surprised if it fell over 10 std deviations away

    With that said, I never said to write it off. There is some usefullness in factoring it in at times but there is also usefulness in excluding at times.
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  7. 09-19-15 11:31 PM #7
    The Kraken
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    House has dozen of players like JJGOLD. Bet the worst lines, reload every week, spend all their money on gambling, bet losers.
    JJ is this true. Ive heard Fishhead say you have no risk tolerance. Im gonna go out on a limb and say you haven't placed a bet in nearly 2 years
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  8. 09-19-15 11:35 PM #8
    MoneyLineDawg
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    Although as a whole the house wins, you can still be a winning player personally....Very hard to do over a lifetime, but you can hit a few hot streaks to make it all worth it

    I mean what are we all doing here? We all know the house wins, but we're just going for that 10-0 streak to pay for our next vacation and feel on top of the world
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  9. 09-20-15 11:27 AM #9
    The Kraken
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    Yep, completely agree.

    Just pointing out that collectively, we suck
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  10. 09-20-15 11:35 AM #10
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    where is that number from?
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  11. 09-20-15 11:43 AM #11
    gauchojake
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    The hose doesn't limit you to four 1 unit bets and force you to make one 2 unit bet, so the data is a bit skewed, but I agree. Being the house is a good bet.
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  12. 09-20-15 12:02 PM #12
    Harry N. Lloyd
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    I've worked both sides of the betting window and sadly report that the bookie gets all the good bounces and breaks. I have no logical explanation why. Most gamblers experience more bad beats than lucky wins.
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  13. 09-20-15 12:10 PM #13
    allaboutmoney
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    Beating the house is fairly simple for intelligent people. Just be smart and bet the games you like and not just bet a lot for fun for sake of betting. House always wins because there are more dumb degens out there than smart people. But the intelligent ones like me have been beating the house for years.
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  14. 09-20-15 01:49 PM #14
    The Kraken
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ghenghis Kahn View Post
    where is that number from?
    Which # GK? If you're referring to the OP, they're from this seasons BTP contest.

    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    The hose doesn't limit you to four 1 unit bets and force you to make one 2 unit bet, so the data is a bit skewed, but I agree. Being the house is a good bet.
    Yep. But it may be skewing it in our favor could you imagine if this group of guys put in 10-20 bets a weekend And for the most part, I will assume the 5 plays being played are the "best" 5 plays for that weekend.

    Quote Originally Posted by allaboutmoney View Post
    Beating the house is fairly simple for intelligent people. Just be smart and bet the games you like and not just bet a lot for fun for sake of betting. House always wins because there are more dumb degens out there than smart people. But the intelligent ones like me have been beating the house for years.
    You should write a book. And congrats on being one of the few
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  15. 09-20-15 01:49 PM #15
    Justin_sane
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    don't forget most people make more then 5 plays a weekend during football season, and of course always the tilt factor.
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  16. 09-20-15 02:02 PM #16
    gauchojake
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Kraken View Post
    Yep. But it may be skewing it in our favor could you imagine if this group of guys put in 10-20 bets a weekend And for the most part, I will assume the 5 plays being played are the "best" 5 plays for that weekend.
    No doubt the number is indicative of our inability as a group to pick games ATS. I really hope most people aren't firing away at 20 games a weekend, but I suspect many are.
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  17. 09-20-15 02:13 PM #17
    jjgold
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    its all random men

    we win and lose but do not know how or when
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  18. 09-20-15 09:27 PM #18
    The Kraken
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    JJ plz post your fukking spreadsheet

    Thanks
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  19. 09-20-15 09:28 PM #19
    jjgold
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    Points Awarded:

    The Kraken gave jjgold 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: The Kraken
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  20. 09-20-15 09:35 PM #20
    Ebe
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    the book inevitably rapes
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  21. 09-20-15 09:40 PM #21
    d2bets
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    The end result is why the house wins. 51.61% wins and still negative. Juice.
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  22. 09-20-15 11:12 PM #22
    The Kraken
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post


    Exhibit B gents

    428k risked, -11,281 gained. 51.19%, overall not bad. NFL is JJ's bread and butter, he could go on a huge run any time.

    That's roughly a -3% ROI or something

    Not bad JJ
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  23. 09-20-15 11:24 PM #23
    MoneyLineDawg
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    Strictly flat betting single units will leave you like JJ's spreadsheet....barring the few exceptions. A few hot streaks of course, but overall you will be drained by juice

    I guess you can come out on top by pressing at the right times but you can also get hurt more.....Of course the rare long shot parlay or future bet can also put you ahead, but so can the lottery
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  24. 10-04-15 07:57 PM #24
    The Kraken
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    Update AND exhibit C


    • ALL
    • NFL
    • NCAAF


    Beat The Prick 11: $30,000 & 150K pts/week > Picks


    October 2015
    Day WLT Pct Net Winning Record
    10/04/2015 1424-1540-23 48.04 % -348.23 Details
    10/03/2015 925-924-12 50.03 % -134.45 Details
    10/02/2015 48-62-42 43.64 % -21.20 Details
    10/01/2015 78-99-0 44.07 % -36.16 Details
    September 2015
    Day WLT Pct Net Winning Record
    09/28/2015 165-118-0 58.30 % 48.70 Details
    09/27/2015 1627-1492-0 52.16 % -25.52 Details
    09/26/2015 902-913-110 49.70 % -155.02 Details
    09/25/2015 88-79-0 52.69 % 8.59 Details
    09/24/2015 87-76-0 53.37 % 3.72 Details
    09/21/2015 95-154-0 38.15 % -80.33 Details
    09/20/2015 1520-1787-0 45.96 % -570.71 Details
    09/19/2015 767-941-63 44.91 % -323.34 Details
    09/18/2015 50-86-0 36.76 % -48.36 Details
    09/17/2015 141-176-0 44.48 % -54.74 Details
    09/14/2015 139-292-0 32.25 % -232.65 Details
    09/13/2015 2118-1459-0 59.21 % 700.70 Details
    09/12/2015 833-981-27 45.92 % -299.86 Details
    09/11/2015 38-20-0 65.52 % 21.90 Details
    09/10/2015 91-140-1 39.39 % -100.00 Details

    Totals: 11136-11339-278 49.55 % -1,646.96



    Maybe more clear now just how BIG of an outlier that +700u was on 9/13

    14/19 days were losing days for us
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  25. 10-04-15 08:09 PM #25
    Housemoney
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    I spend less than 5 minutes on my BTP picks. I bet many others do too.
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  26. 10-04-15 08:11 PM #26
    The Kraken
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    This is very indicative of a real book

    The problem is one sharp can cut into these profits deeply, it's why they spend so much time identifying them early and limiting them.
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  27. 10-04-15 08:11 PM #27
    pavyracer
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    The house always wins but no smack Joe has the guts to be a bookie.
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  28. 10-04-15 08:51 PM #28
    jjgold
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  29. 10-04-15 10:25 PM #29
    manny24
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    peaks and valleys
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  30. 10-04-15 11:30 PM #30
    jjgold
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    you have to stick to certain criteria to hang in there but many of us just force plays
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  31. 10-04-15 11:39 PM #31
    CanuckG
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    Kraken how you doing in BTP pal?
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