[JMon]

Good time to fade...

Logic would be:

1: lack of motivation, already in the playoffs
2: give the new guys a chance to shine
3: inflated numbers b/c public still likes the 90+ teams

Back testing results (since 2004)

ML: 370-326 (ave line -148.4) (+45.52)- risking (100) the line to win one on favorites and risking one to win the line on dog). Not bad 6% return since '04.

Inflated numbers???? I checked dogs..

Dogs: 70-81 (-15.68)- fading. Surprising profit it you played them!

So this tells me it's a good bet to fade favorites of those winning (90+) teams going into playoffs.

Not going to break it down per year, but last year LOST and there were 4 losing years out 11.

I did back fit it though .

Never a losing year!

1. 90+ wins
2. Fav of no more than 174
3. Eliminate bad pitchers, high line totals of <9.5
4. catch games 162>game number>155.


Results:

Fading 45-72 (+49.35) never losing year since 2004...

Last year only 2-2 (+.75), will track this years 90+ winners!

[Chi_archie]

yeah but 3 of them will be in NL Central and they will be battling to the end to determine how and where they play

[Chi_archie]

Blue Jays and Yanks

two more likely 90+ win teams that will be battling to the end

leaves the royals and Dodgers I guess

[KingHutch]

Interesting Jmon

[darrell74]

One thing I will say is that they all hit for average, pitch for era. Don't let yourself believe in resting for the loffs.

[jjgold]

They are pros

They do not quit regardless of record

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

They are pros

They do not quit regardless of record

Reminds me of someone

[JMon]

yeah but 3 of them will be in NL Central and they will be battling to the end to determine how and where they play

that's sick archie...looking into this one..

[JMon]

that's sick archie...looking into this one..

Home team with 90+ wins vs a divisional opt with 90+ doesn't happen very often...

since '04, 18-15 (-140) +82 (fading).. most recent Red vs Pirates 0-3 (2013) and A's vs Rangers 3-0 (2012). Regardless this situation is a no play! Nice catch archie, takes lack of motivation out the equation.