In all the Monday night Football action I forgot to post a play for the CFL. I hadn’t written anything on the play, but I bought Edmonton +7 (-120) for the Edmonton vs. Hamilton game. It’s not offered now, the line has moved, so I won’t put the play in bold for this thread. However, I did pick up
Edmonton Eskimos +6 (-112) and Edmonton Eskimos +5.5 (-101) over Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
For this game I have predicted a score of Hamilton's 27 points to Edmonton’s 20 points. Even though there are many basic models that predict Hamilton scoring a little more I expected immediate pressure on Edmonton this week, even before the lines were released.
I also believed there would be an attempt to open this spread at a point that would cause some groups to pass. That said; I am not surprised that the line opened with Edmonton -6, ticked up toward the models to -7 and then was picked up by some houses there and as it dropped to 6.5 and 6 by other houses. It could be that 5.5 is a bottom here, at that time many models kick back in and the favorite gets hit, but it’s early to tell as this is game two this week and the first one on Saturday.
Indeed, due to certain unnamed metrics involving the markets, that initial push towards 7 could even have been manipulation by groups wanting a better number on the underdog side. In fact, a couple of things about this game could be said that you’ve heard before.
Now before you go saying “well, KVB always says this it doesn’t always happen, eventually it will” know that having answers in sports betting is one thing, but having the patience to let those answers come to you are another. In trading and analyzing the markets, failure when the trigger is pulled often just means there should have been patience.
Anyway, about the game…
First, getting the best of a point or even half point hasn’t mattered much this year. This is the type of game where, against the spread, it could.
Second, this is another game in which I see deception. Even though the second game starts 5 full hours later, this game could have a large lead evaporated in a comeback.
That leads to the third point. With the potential for the game I just described, there is high potential for the Over. That didn’t happen last time I said that, and you know the give and take of these markets.
This Total opened early at 52.5 and quickly moved toward my prediction of 47 points to 51.5 where almost everyone opened and it sits. In fact, many models approach but stay just below 50 points. The last meeting between these two brought 69 points and this could explain the higher opening but I don’t think the public perception was the oddsmaker’s fear.
Instead, I think the oddsmakers were offering the books some early protection from the Over because of the nature of the game. On this alone we should pick up the Over but I am going to wait. I think there will be further pressure on the Under in this game and will be interested to see if the books take it below 51. The question becomes whether or not the books need any Over money or are just fine where they sit. They could hold out until close to game time and then let it fall, we’ll see.
To understand my thinking, I’m not holding off in hopes of just getting a better line here. I’m also confirming my understanding of the line movement. As it stands, at 51.5 or even 51, it’s basically confirmed, but I feel I have little to lose by waiting.
While getting down early can always be touted, in terms of market analysis, I can’t stress enough the importance of processing information and time. The more time you have, the more information you can process.
Understanding where the line may be headed can help you decide on which issues you can take more time to process. Of course, first you have to have an idea of which issues need more time to make decision, which usually means the issues on which you need more information.
Good Luck