[HeeluvaGuy]

Anyone doing an NFL thread?

[KVB]

I might start some NFL plays. Like college, we need some games to go by to really be able to analyze the markets. It's tough in week one.

I took Jacksonville +3 and St. Louis +4 +175. No real analysis except maybe percieved public perception.

Probably some underdogs today.

I should have some kind of play for the afternoon or night after we see the money start to flow.

[KVB]

...In anticipation of a move, I am going to pick up Under 50.5 (-106) for Ottawa RedBlacks vs. British Colombia Lions...

This line now sits at 49.5 almost everywhere. If it hits 49 I may buy back.

The NFL has a big day today and those markets start out a bit chaotic...there are likely repercussions in other markets. I advise caution and would not take the Under 49.5.

For those who did predict the line movement, they may be a bit bolstered by this movement and could get carried away on the Under. This is a swing game and, often with swing games, it's best to run a checklist of losing behaviors, to be sure your not falling into one. It's best for all games, but swing games tend to carry some weight and exploit theses behaviors well.

Good Luck today.

[Ra77er]

I might start some NFL plays. Like college, we need some games to go by to really be able to analyze the markets. It's tough in week one.

I took Jacksonville +3 and St. Louis +4 +175. No real analysis except maybe percieved public perception.

Probably some underdogs today.

I should have some kind of play for the afternoon or night after we see the money start to flow.

[KVB]

[Ra77er]

...

[Ra77er]

KVB you are the man

[KVB]

It will be tough to both analyze the NFL and write it up too. For the CFL I put my prediction out for every game. The NFL is too large for that.

I think the Giants have a chance tonight. From a general standpoint, the NFL is usually surprising and we haven't seen too many suprises today. Indy losing to Buffalo was a hardly a surprise, the markets pointed that way. And I don't think Seattle losing in St. Louis was much of a suprise either. The Giants could play strong tonight.

That could be a surprise.

Thanks Ra77er, that was basically a bad beat for Over bettors. I don't know if you saw the game but it didn't come easy.

Tonight is a little mini swing game in the NFL. Good Luck if you're in.

[Ra77er]

I like Dallas to start the season strong here KVB. Turnovers, missed opportunities in the redzone is about the only way the Boys don't cover this game imo. We've seen big public favorites covering today in the NFL so why go contrarian tonight?

Denver
Cincy
Green Bay
New York Jets
Miami
Arizona


Only one not covering was the Colts, plenty of time for contrarian wins later in the season.

[KVB]

I think it's more about moneyflow with this play Ra77er. I examined a few metrics, including bookmaking techniques and made the play of +7.

See, it needs a write-up...lol

I also took Giants +9.5. for the second half.

[KVB]

After a day of NFL we have a ton of information to work with, even if it is only week one. Market based decisions can still be made for Monday.

[Ra77er]

KVB thanks for the small blurb on the Giants tonight, I went the other way on the half line as well and I guess I have to pay for it. This game is bizarre and I guess poor execution at certain critical moments will cost them.

Looking at MNF now.

Atlanta is what I see...SF inviting as well but unsure of what we get on the field now.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

KVB, where do u find these pictures? LOL

[Ra77er]

I like San Fran tomorrow and Philadelphia. Dirty Birds appear to be a tarp....much like the Braves today grrrr.

[KVB]

...Knowing the give and take of it all, from a market perspective I reasoned that the team that wins the Superbowl would likely not have been involved in paying as much to certain bettors through the season. The markets tend to balance out when it comes to these kinds of numbers and early season failure can often lead to later season success. It is the same way in many NFL aspects...

...Funny how things tend to even out, I learned a valuable lesson that year...

In games involving Saskatchewan this year, while they have had a 1-10 record, my predictions, beginning in week 3, have been 7-2 against both spreads and moneylines.

While keeping a type of balance, Saskatchewan and their opponents have been "cooperative" this year.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

some str8 up killaz in this thread

[icecapper]

Bad number is out for the Winnipeg Montreal game. I'm on Bombers +10 and the over 42 right now.

[KVB]

I have a quick note on the NFL. I do have a way of making predictions that indicate the flow of money from the get go. Of course, just like in the CFL, truly sharper money enters the market a little later. My predictions early on involve metrics that don’t require a pile of stats; they just require an active market.

Anyway, there have been 14 games played so far in the NFL. In measuring my predictions against the markets for the NFL, I don’t use any discrepancy, like with CFL in this thread. With the NFL, my predicted score must be a certain nonlinear distance from the offered lines to be considered a prediction. For this week, my predictions are 7-7 against the moneyline. Against the spread, the predictions are 4-7 with 3 games too close to call. For totals, my prediction is 3-8 with 3 games too close to call. All of these numbers will improve over the season. As usual, the moneyline prediction lead in record, but price matters there.

Sometimes lines move in or out of buy range. For example, last night I had Dallas scoring 31 points to New York’s 23. Dallas -5 is a prediction here, but as it moved closer to my 8 point margin to the closing -7 it moved out of buy range and then wasn’t a prediction. For the records above, I counted it if it was ever a buy, regardless of moves.

Also, the spreads and totals moved toward my predicted line in almost every game. For market analysis, this is a somewhat crude by itself, but reliable week one indicator.

[KVB]

For the game with Philly vs. Atlanta I have Philly scoring 31 points to Atlanta’s 24. The line opened with Philly -1 and moved towards my line to -3. The Total opened at 52.5 and has move to 55, right on my prediction. This has been typical this week and tells me I have a decent grasp of the market.

Even at -3, Philly is still the prediction here. The money line for Philly is a prediction and the Total is a pass; even at 52.5 there was no prediction.

For the second game, I have Minnesota scoring 23 points to San Francisco’s 17 points. The line opened with SF -4.5 and moved all the way to Minnesota -2.5. This is a prediction for Minnesota until in hits Minnesota -3, then no buy. It’s a wonder the books have stopped before that ever important 3 point line.

The Total of 40 points is too close to the opening and current line of 41.5.

So do I have any bets? As usual I’m inclined to think we see deception tonight and that the first game is very close in the end, perhaps a comeback, perhaps OT. As both lines approach 3, I think we see a split in money.

It could be difficult to see the first result before the second game starts. I am thinking a late Philly cover and then perhaps San Francisco at home.

I am thinking about picking up a Philly moneyline, maybe -3 and then watching to see. Those Dallas backers could get some back with Philly tonight as the Atlanta underdog likely busts a few parlays.
Contrary to many, I think this game in Atlanta could go Under.

We can wait for more information before deciding game two. Although, I could see the halftime markets giving us the same Philly -3 we see at kickoff right, and the live markets giving it right up to the end.

[KVB]

I know this is is a CFL thread, but the themes I posted earlier apply here too so I'm giving some thoughts.

[Ra77er]

Eagles I feel good about, I got them at -2.5 x2.

SF actually worries me now that I see it drifting around near the three...I got them +2,+2.5 and ML.

I see a 3 at Brovada still....I think it may be reversed on your assessment KVB. Minnesota may very well destroy the niners... defense is ravaged, new coach, division getting stronger, AP is back with shoulder chip etc.

I may abort mission on Niners.

[KVB]

I ended up with just an under 55 to start out. May trade live.

Good Luck Ra77er

[KVB]

Philly misses the winning field goal I was posting about earlier and failed on the final drive. At least it stays Under. I also hit Philly -6 for the second half.

I think this next game, while probably Minnesota, is gonna be a pass for me, for now.

[Ra77er]

KVB you are super smart. Under 55 was money along with Atlanta. I have literally lost all NFL bets save for a few 2h wagers.

[KVB]

Here the night games for me. Often the money just flows right into these night games, sometimes it's a setup for another week.

I had some second half success too. Sometimes we need more time for information, that's what second halves and live betting are for...



I think some NFL market analysis could be fun. You think the CFL can play to an audience, it's nothing compared to the drama of the NFL.

[Hngkng]

Saskatchewan is starting Kevin Glenn at QB this week vs Ottawa. The game could be a high scoring one.

[KVB]

In all the Monday night Football action I forgot to post a play for the CFL. I hadn’t written anything on the play, but I bought Edmonton +7 (-120) for the Edmonton vs. Hamilton game. It’s not offered now, the line has moved, so I won’t put the play in bold for this thread. However, I did pick up Edmonton Eskimos +6 (-112) and Edmonton Eskimos +5.5 (-101) over Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

For this game I have predicted a score of Hamilton's 27 points to Edmonton’s 20 points. Even though there are many basic models that predict Hamilton scoring a little more I expected immediate pressure on Edmonton this week, even before the lines were released.

I also believed there would be an attempt to open this spread at a point that would cause some groups to pass. That said; I am not surprised that the line opened with Edmonton -6, ticked up toward the models to -7 and then was picked up by some houses there and as it dropped to 6.5 and 6 by other houses. It could be that 5.5 is a bottom here, at that time many models kick back in and the favorite gets hit, but it’s early to tell as this is game two this week and the first one on Saturday.

Indeed, due to certain unnamed metrics involving the markets, that initial push towards 7 could even have been manipulation by groups wanting a better number on the underdog side. In fact, a couple of things about this game could be said that you’ve heard before.

Now before you go saying “well, KVB always says this it doesn’t always happen, eventually it will” know that having answers in sports betting is one thing, but having the patience to let those answers come to you are another. In trading and analyzing the markets, failure when the trigger is pulled often just means there should have been patience.

Anyway, about the game…

First, getting the best of a point or even half point hasn’t mattered much this year. This is the type of game where, against the spread, it could.

Second, this is another game in which I see deception. Even though the second game starts 5 full hours later, this game could have a large lead evaporated in a comeback.

That leads to the third point. With the potential for the game I just described, there is high potential for the Over. That didn’t happen last time I said that, and you know the give and take of these markets.

This Total opened early at 52.5 and quickly moved toward my prediction of 47 points to 51.5 where almost everyone opened and it sits. In fact, many models approach but stay just below 50 points. The last meeting between these two brought 69 points and this could explain the higher opening but I don’t think the public perception was the oddsmaker’s fear.

Instead, I think the oddsmakers were offering the books some early protection from the Over because of the nature of the game. On this alone we should pick up the Over but I am going to wait. I think there will be further pressure on the Under in this game and will be interested to see if the books take it below 51. The question becomes whether or not the books need any Over money or are just fine where they sit. They could hold out until close to game time and then let it fall, we’ll see.

To understand my thinking, I’m not holding off in hopes of just getting a better line here. I’m also confirming my understanding of the line movement. As it stands, at 51.5 or even 51, it’s basically confirmed, but I feel I have little to lose by waiting.

While getting down early can always be touted, in terms of market analysis, I can’t stress enough the importance of processing information and time. The more time you have, the more information you can process.

Understanding where the line may be headed can help you decide on which issues you can take more time to process. Of course, first you have to have an idea of which issues need more time to make decision, which usually means the issues on which you need more information.

Good Luck

[icecapper]

Over 47 in BC Calgary tonight.

[KVB]

For the game tonight I have Calgary winning with 27 points to British Colombia’s 13 points. The line opened with Calgary -12 dipped a little to 11.5 where some houses picked it up and has since moved to 12.5 and even 13 in some cases. This is essentially the highest line of the year.

I must admit, at 11.5 and anticipating movement I was very tempted pick up an easy Calgary win here. However, this is the first game this week and with a spread opening near and approaching my prediction I am now going to pass on this side.

I have predicted a mere 40 points in this game while other models graduate upward, getting closer to 50 points. This line opened early at 47.5, ticked up to 48 and has since made its way to 47. There is considerable pressure on the Over here but the sharper line, indicating the Under, is likely prevailing. I could see this line bouncing off of 46.5, and in some places it has.

From a standpoint of the markets, this looks like an easy Over to take. The difference between the teams in my prediction is primarily due to a stronger Calgary defense facing weaker BC defense. This is what keeps the prediction Under. But there are streak breakers of all kinds, some chasing, that seek the Over. Some of those streak breakers may even be jumping the sharp side to get it.

I think the Calgary blowout is inevitable and the easy pay here. Based on my metrics, that expected Over just has too much pressure for a first game of the week, won’t be the easy take, and I am going to counter that pressure by picking up UNDER 47 (-105) for British Colombia Lions vs. Calgary Stampeders.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

After reviewing the market place, I have picked up Calgary Stampeders -11.5 (-115) over British Columbia Lions.

Good Luck.

[Hngkng]

Calgary Win + Under 47.0 Parlay!

[KVB]

At first I thought we were seeing some games by the books with a movement, or price movement, towards BC. But now it looks like there was some actual late pressure on them, perhaps some unsophisticated steam bettors.

This could be cause for concern but may also play into the day. The sharper downward pressure was expected on the Total and it is at 46.5 almost everywhere.

If this total movement is true to the result, then there is a good possibility that this late pressure on BC is a little bit off false movement. In this game of splits and give and take, books tend to use such tactics.

Since we are dealing with reduced vigorish, I am going to add to the position by picking up Calgary Stampeders -11 (-105) over British Columbia Lions.

I’m starting to think I either have this weekend right, or I have it completely wrong.

Good Luck

[KVB]

On a weekend where my numbers line up close to so many spreads, a weekend I was initially considering passing on most games, I find myself with all kinds of action, and it's only Friday.

I get this ominous feeling I'm going to be asking myself "what the hell happened here?" after tonight.

[Ra77er]

I'm am with you on both KVB, you didn't miss much on the video just me blabbing at a baseball game. Probably a bad idea in the first place but I said I would...even though a few hours later...I was too tired after the game. Good luck to us tonight....watching Edmonton rooting for Stampede Under.

[CanuckG]

Stamps awful special teams