1. 07-06-15 03:03 PM #36
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Model favors Seattle heavily at 65% (-186), Iwakuma grades out light years better than Simon. So Mariners actually show a bit of value in the -160s, but I do not lay those kinds of odds.
    Yeah I was gonna say I like Seattle here. But can you explain the Reds pick?
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  2. 07-06-15 03:05 PM #37
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matty Mo View Post
    I'd stay away from the Padres... take a look at Shields last couple starts on the road and get back to me. Pirates all day, but will be a close one most likely.
    Pirates now -123 at Pinny.
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  3. 07-06-15 03:09 PM #38
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Vaile View Post
    Hey LT question for you. What's up with Eric Surkamp being -225? What does your model say about the Dodgers tonite?
    Not a damn thing. I have no data on Surkamp, couldn't find ZiPS Projections on him and didn't want to waste more time looking.
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  4. 07-06-15 03:15 PM #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    PLus, I posted in my thread, don't get the 7 for a total??? If these guys keep pitching that way, the over looks like a gift, unless someone thinks Seattle can't hit ??? I don't know, it looks awful appetizing, of course LT is smarter than I am ???? Maybe he will weigh in on the subject for us.


    Iwakuma is studly when he is healthy. And Mariners struggle offensively at home vs. average pitching.
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  5. 07-06-15 03:17 PM #40
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Iwakuma is studly when he is healthy. And Mariners struggle offensively at home vs. average pitching.
    Also, McClendon said there will be no restrictions on Iwa, so it sounds like he is fine and you can toss the three April starts.
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  6. 07-06-15 03:22 PM #41
    Conqueror
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Not a damn thing. I have no data on Surkamp, couldn't find ZiPS Projections on him and didn't want to waste more time looking.
    It doesn't even matter whatever the model says. It makes little sense to lay -200ish on a team struggling at the plate.
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  7. 07-06-15 03:43 PM #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conqueror View Post
    It doesn't even matter whatever the model says. It makes little sense to lay -200ish on a team struggling at the plate.
    Model has Dodgers with 4.3 runs though, O'Sullivan has been awful on the road. Also if I just plug in Average Lefty for Dodgers, it spits out LA -213.
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  8. 07-06-15 03:48 PM #43
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post

    Iwakuma is studly when he is healthy. And Mariners struggle offensively at home vs. average pitching.
    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post

    Also, McClendon said there will be no restrictions on Iwa, so it sounds like he is fine and you can toss the three April starts.
    Thanks for the info, the guys were waiting to here from you.



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  9. 07-06-15 04:15 PM #44
    mth61
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    My system play has value on St Louis at +112, yours? 57% favored
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  10. 07-06-15 04:18 PM #45
    Alex Vaile
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Not a damn thing. I have no data on Surkamp, couldn't find ZiPS Projections on him and didn't want to waste more time looking.
    Ok cool just seems crazy. He was with the Giants last season and was up and down to the minors. Thanks.
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  11. 07-06-15 04:58 PM #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Pirates now -123 at Pinny.
    More reason to take Pit in my opinion
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  12. 07-06-15 05:01 PM #47
    LT Profits
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    3 MLB Additions

    9 MLB Plays Monday

    Reds +138 (Heritage)
    Reds +115 (5 innings) (Heritage)
    Padres +142 (Heritage)
    Padres / Pirates OVER 7 +105 (Heritage)
    Padres / Pirates OVER 3.5 -110 (5 innings) (Heritage)
    Twins +104 (Heritage)
    Blue Jays / White Sox UNDER 7 -110 (Bookmaker)
    Tigers / Mariners UNDER 7 +108 (5 Dimes)
    Mets +141 (Heritage)
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  13. 07-06-15 05:02 PM #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    6 MLB Plays Monday

    Reds +138 (Heritage)
    Padres +142 (Heritage)
    Twins +104 (Heritage)
    Blue Jays / White Sox UNDER 7 -110 (Bookmaker)
    Tigers / Mariners UNDER 7 +108 (5 Dimes)
    Mets +141 (Heritage)


    YTD: 296-271-14, +54.28

    Congrats on killing the closing numbers with these two.

    Now you're fvcked.
    Points Awarded:

    ANOoki gave No coincidences 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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  14. 07-06-15 05:09 PM #49
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    LT: Why are all of Bovada's baseball lines scratched?
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  15. 07-07-15 12:21 AM #50
    jeffjam_
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Because jeffjam_ asked for it :

    ...
    [/code]
    Thanks LT, that's about as even as it gets. Hope your success will continue. After the season, try to come up with real vs. estimated edge comparision, that would be interesting.
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  16. 07-07-15 10:41 AM #51
    PaperTrail07
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    nice call on the over...7 was low low
    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    PLus, I posted in my thread, don't get the 7 for a total??? If these guys keep pitching that way, the over looks like a gift, unless someone thinks Seattle can't hit ??? I don't know, it looks awful appetizing, of course LT is smarter than I am ???? Maybe he will weigh in on the subject for us.


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  17. 07-07-15 10:42 AM #52
    PaperTrail07
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    Nice call by you....horrible call to the BP by wash...
    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Washington is now -125 at Pinny so I crushed the line as of now. Let's see what happens.
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  18. 07-07-15 10:46 AM #53
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    Seems like 20 to 30 cent moves are the best. 40 or more never win. I think 40 or more happened twice this year and both lost.
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