[Ra77er]

Let's talk about these games tonight.

Phillies/Yankees: I make this game NYY -268. I feel this is a terrible spot to take the Phillies. Maybe a +1.5 Phils or what I did was ML parlay the NYY with Kershaw (even money). NYY according to my ps4 (also known as R2) are statistically superior in virtually every category. The problem is laying the -273 and worse is just so scary. Good luck on your plays here.

Tigers/Indians: This one has me baffled. I would have opened this game the exact opposite....Detroit -137 Cleveland 126. The Indians do not pitch well or play well in general at home. I do see the pitching matchup and it favors Cleveland along with Cleveland's knack for hitting lefties but I still think Detroit is the right side here. The line whisperers would probably also say Tribe are the side so this one should be a pass for me. Paco said Bauer in another thread so that also has to be a bad omen.

Blue Jays/Devil Rays: Okay well if you got -102 reduced juice at 5Dimes last night, you are probably good looking and successful IRL. This one has bloodbath written all over it for Tampa, Toronto is the play I'm ready to die with. Line has lost value to be sure, so those liking Tampa should probably hold out as long as possible. I however am on the -102 for 153 pesos.

Dodgers/Cubs: Kershaw had a baby earlier in the year, those with kids can identify. He had a slow start and rightly so. He's dialed in now, I would tread very carefully. I make LAD -187 here, parlay'd with NYY. Cubs are below average hitting LHP and aren't as good at home.

White Sox/Twins: This is an auto play on Minnesota ML for me. Number 1 vs LHP and at home against a struggling offense. Milone looked good against Texas recently, I'm laying the juice here and do not try and stop me. Please put this on my tombstone if I die, "guy couldn't lay off the juice".

Astros/Angels: Writers cramp kicking in now, I like Houston easy here but perhaps I am too much of a homer.

Royals/Mariners: King may not even show up for court today. Royals win big.

[FlyinAir]

"Guy couldn't lay off the juice"

[Big Bear]

Let's talk about these games tonight.

Phillies/Yankees: I make this game NYY -268. I feel this is a terrible spot to take the Phillies. Maybe a +1.5 Phils or what I did was ML parlay the NYY with Kershaw (even money). NYY according to my ps4 (also known as R2) are statistically superior in virtually every category. The problem is laying the -273 and worse is just so scary. Good luck on your plays here.

Tigers/Indians: This one has me baffled. I would have opened this game the exact opposite....Detroit -137 Cleveland 126. The Indians do not pitch well or play well in general at home. I do see the pitching matchup and it favors Cleveland along with Cleveland's knack for hitting lefties but I still think Detroit is the right side here. The line whisperers would probably also say Tribe are the side so this one should be a pass for me. Paco said Bauer in another thread so that also has to be a bad omen.

Blue Jays/Devil Rays: Okay well if you got -102 reduced juice at 5Dimes last night, you are probably good looking and successful IRL. This one has bloodbath written all over it for Tampa, Toronto is the play I'm ready to die with. Line has lost value to be sure, so those liking Tampa should probably hold out as long as possible. I however am on the -102 for 153 pesos.

Dodgers/Cubs: Kershaw had a baby earlier in the year, those with kids can identify. He had a slow start and rightly so. He's dialed in now, I would tread very carefully. I make LAD -187 here, parlay'd with NYY. Cubs are below average hitting LHP and aren't as good at home.

White Sox/Twins: This is an auto play on Minnesota ML for me. Number 1 vs LHP and at home against a struggling offense. Milone looked good against Texas recently, I'm laying the juice here and do not try and stop me. Please put this on my tombstone if I die, "guy couldn't lay off the juice".

Astros/Angels: Writers cramp kicking in now, I like Houston easy here but perhaps I am too much of a homer.

Royals/Mariners: King may not even show up for court today. Royals win big.

i agree the Yankees are in a great spot today but of course that is a steep price to pay. However Vegas knows the Yankees win easy so they are priced accordingly.

wouldn't touch the Dodgers/cubs game.

couldn't disagree more on the Royals/Mariners game but I don't trust the Mariners bats so i will take the under. One thing i know for certain is that the Royals will not win big. If they will its probably 1-0 or 2-1 type game.

and as far as the Indians and Tigers go.... i suggest you go on youtube.com and check out some video of Trevor Bauer. This guy is absolutely FILTHY.

and the guy pitching for the Tigers will soon be sent back to the minor leagues once the Tigers get that pitching staff squared away. I am pretty sure the Tigers will make a trade for another SP.

[Ra77er]

Bear I am purely looking at the ML's and the number. If the Yankees were -180, I would gladly lay the 18 to win 10 according to my numbers of -268. I have seen Trevor pitch several times, as well as Cleveland at home on TV. I still cannot figure this line out, I'm sure there is something I am not accounting for and perhaps you are right I am not valuing Trevor enough.

I love the King but Kansas City is a tough out on the road. They are top 8 hitting/pitching and number 1 bullpen. King needs to throw down a monster for this one to be good, way too expensive to gamble on that.

[Ra77er]

"Guy couldn't lay off the juice"

Flyin keep your head outta the gutter.

[posey]

Bauer has bad career stats vs Tigers (.295 BAA, .353 OBP, .503 SLG, .856 against current Tigers hitters). But Tigers are 7-14 in road games at night this season, while they are 10-2 in road games at daytime. Funny. But well. Tonight's a night game.

[Big Bear]

speaking of Tigers and Day games...

Miguel Cabrera is a beast in day games.

he is hitting .430 with 11 HR's in day games.

only 4 HR's in night games.

i am guessing its b/c he sees the ball better in the day time and the ball carries more b/c its warmer.

[Ra77er]

Very interesting thoughts on the Tigers during the day/night.

[posey]

Yap. The difference is so drastic that I would give it some merits. It's really strange, cause they faced good pitchers at night and at daytime and at daytime they crush them, while at night they suck. No clue why.

[Ra77er]

Speaking of this Day/Night thing, any of you old heads or young whatever thought about the kids that come from the carribean countries in relation to performance on the field? You know like Big Papi's bat takes a bit to get going etc? Injuries early in the year? Sorry if this is like a basic idea that was already known, I am a young jedi.

[posey]

You can definately say that certain guys perform different in certain environments or throughout the year. One player I know of is e.g. Jose Bautista, his OPS in May is .150 higher than in Sep/Oct (.951 compared to .805). You can look this up for all guys at baseball ref. May be coincidence, may be not.

[Ra77er]

Ya it may be posey but I like knowledge so I can keep an eye on this. Thanks for the reply.