1. 01-06-14 03:10 PM #1
    VegasInsider
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    VI's Plays - Year Long Thread

    I've had enough creating a thread each day for posting my analysis. Just going to keep one thread, post whatever plays, info, discussion and spreadsheet stuff. This will be much better

    Started a new spreadsheet on Jan 1st (started Jan 3rd actually, thats why tons of plays on that date) - Hope we can all make some money and I finally stick to a disciplined betting strategy with units, no parlays and an accurate and up to date record. Plays go from 1-3 units and a rare, rare 5 unit play (like last week on URI).

    Monday 1/6

    Auburn +10.5 (-110)
    Prop: FSU Scores All 4 Quarters (+100)
    Canisius -2 (-110) - Write up posted in other thread

    One Unit each

    Line got to where I wanted and I can't pass up 10.5 points in a NC game. It's a total value play and I'm not going to be totally surprised by any outcome of this game. I can see a tight one, I could see FSU blowing them out and I could see Winston coming back to Earth and Auburn cruising. No idea, just a great number and glad I waited it out.

    The prop holds some value as well. Auburn plays no defense and I'd expect FSU to walk up and down the field. I'm mostly worried about the first quarter. Slow start or untimely turnover could ruin this quickly. I'll take my chances at EV or better, though
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  2. 01-06-14 03:11 PM #2
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    The end of the weekend started out much better than it started and I feel much more confident heading into Monday's short card after the Iowa cover. Hawkeye's made just enough shots late to avoid the free throws leaving us outside the number.

    Monday, I'll be heading to the MAAC for a conference matchup between Canisius and Marist. I've been waiting for a spot to play Canisius all season and I think this is it. I follow them pretty close since the ex-URI coach Jim Baron leads the Golden Griffins and his son, Billy Baron, is the sharp shooting guard that had played a UVA and URI before settling at Canisius the last two seasons.

    Marist started the season 0-9 after a host of losses to decent competition. The Red Foxes didn't shy away from the tough non-conference schedule but I have a tough time supporting them after 4 straight victories against less than stellar competition. Jim Bower's squad just can't make buckets when they need to and I find little reason to believe that this will change heading into the conference slate. Marist doesn't shoot the ball well and has an uncanny tendency to turn the ball over, which is not ideal against a squad that can really shoot the rock.

    Canisius does a lot of things well. They force a decent amount of turnovers, shoot the three exceptionally well behind Billy Baron, and force quite a few steals while on defense. I'm slightly concerned with a rebounding edge for Marist, but I'd like to take my chances with a short number here. Canisius is led by two elite scorers in Billy Baron and Jordan Heath and if they can shoot the three with any efficiency on Monday, they should be able to get a nice road win. The Red Foxes will take MANY shots from deep against the porous Marist three point defense, I'm just banking on them shooting up to par. I like what I saw against Notre Dame in a true road game and I think Jim Baron's squad gets a win and cover.

    Canisius -2
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  3. 01-06-14 03:15 PM #3
    Russian Rocket
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    best of luck to ya!
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  4. 01-06-14 03:16 PM #4
    Iwinyourmoney
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    I like that fsu scores every quarter prop
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  5. 01-06-14 03:17 PM #5
    MoneyIsWater
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    Holy Smokes on the write ups! I like them thought. #RollWithWinners.
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  6. 01-06-14 03:18 PM #6
    flyingillini
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    I respect you as a man, a poster, a legend, an icon and better yet a human being. You are the kind of man we all strive to be like. May Jesus Christ Bless you, this thread and all of your plays for 2014!
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  7. 01-06-14 03:39 PM #7
    VegasInsider
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    You are too kid, Illini

    Orale!
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  8. 01-06-14 03:41 PM #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iwinyourmoney View Post
    I like that fsu scores every quarter prop
    Yeah, I liked that one too. They have it for Auburn as well. Apparently I'm not the only one that likes it. It's moved to -125 since I posted.

    Mon 1/6 4603 AUB scores in all four quarters <input id="editx" name="M1_21" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +230
    8:25PM 4604 AUB has a scoreless quarter <input id="editx" name="M2_21" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -290
    Mon 1/6 4605 FSU scores in all four quarters <input id="editx" name="M1_22" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -125
    8:25PM 4606 FSU has a scoreless quarter <input id="editx" name="M2_22" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -105
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  9. 01-06-14 03:42 PM #9
    VegasInsider
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    I really like Montreal tonight as well, but I cannot pull the trigger at -170 with how poorly Price has looked. He's much better at home, but I'm not sure he's worthy of laying that price right now. Hoping the public will drive it down to -150 and maybe play it then for a unit. The old me would have unloaded on it with total disregard of the price
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  10. 01-06-14 03:46 PM #10
    jjgold
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    Year long thread better

    Not confusing, too many guys start pick threads everyday and hard to track
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  11. 01-06-14 03:51 PM #11
    Russian Rocket
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    Quote Originally Posted by VegasInsider View Post
    I really like Montreal tonight as well, but I cannot pull the trigger at -170 with how poorly Price has looked. He's much better at home, but I'm not sure he's worthy of laying that price right now. Hoping the public will drive it down to -150 and maybe play it then for a unit. The old me would have unloaded on it with total disregard of the price
    don't be a puss and take them in regulation if you like this bet so much
    you can get them at -107 right now
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  12. 01-06-14 04:02 PM #12
    BIGDAY
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  13. 01-06-14 05:13 PM #13
    STAX
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    nice, GL VI, I like the 4 qtrs prop too, but I am torn on which team I would play it on
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  14. 01-06-14 05:36 PM #14
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    I thought about playing both of them and going for the 1-1 split when FSU was +100

    Def some value on Auburn at +260 - I'm not sure FSU has played an offense has tough at this one.
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  15. 01-06-14 05:44 PM #15
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    I don't have the balls to play Montreal Regulation tonight with half of their last 10 games have gone to OT or SO. I'm going to lay the price tonight with Price.

    Montreal Canadians ML (-169)

    1 unit
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  16. 01-06-14 05:45 PM #16
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  17. 01-06-14 06:14 PM #17
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    Oh boy, tomorrow is looking like a road dog day in college hoops. So many good looking games early on. One big play for sure
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  18. 01-06-14 08:07 PM #18
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    Fukking Canisius. Couldn't stop Marist, they made everything.
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  19. 01-06-14 08:35 PM #19
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    Florida State (Live) +3.5 (-120) for .5 units
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  20. 01-06-14 09:13 PM #20
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    Florida State 2H Team Total O21 (-130) 1 unit

    I'm loving my position right now with these tickets. Unlikely Auburn doesn't cover but have really nice middle opps with Live play, prop play and 2H play

    FSU wins by 3
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  21. 01-06-14 09:54 PM #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by VegasInsider View Post
    Florida State (Live) +3.5 (-120) for .5 units
    I'm feeling overtime. Just need one more score in 4Q to cash prop
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  22. 01-06-14 11:03 PM #22
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  23. 01-07-14 12:05 AM #23
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    Where is what's booked for tomorrow in college hoops. I'll post some writeups tomorrow

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  24. 01-07-14 12:29 AM #24
    bubblebuttluv
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    I'm really liking that Ohio State play and was planning on jumping on it.

    I hope, as a fan of MSU athletics and especially Tom Izzo, that MSU will win.

    But, I feel it will be very close.
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  25. 01-07-14 12:39 AM #25
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    This number shocked me. I had MSU -2 as the opener and there was no way I thought it would get to -5 or more. Big Ten, defense and grabbing two possessions of points. Love it. Matta and Izzo always have close battles.
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  26. 01-07-14 01:53 AM #26
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    Early lean on Vancouver ML (-110)

    Need line and goalie confirmation after morning skate.
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  27. 01-07-14 12:40 PM #27
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    Manchester United (-126)
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  28. 01-07-14 01:16 PM #28
    thunderous
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    Good work! keep it up!!
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  29. 01-07-14 02:25 PM #29
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    Toronto/NY Islanders O5.5 (-130)
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  30. 01-07-14 02:31 PM #30
    RubberKettle
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    Still growing that beard pal?
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  31. 01-07-14 02:32 PM #31
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    No beard
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  32. 01-07-14 05:18 PM #32
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    Final card for tonight. Could add something later, who knows.

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  33. 01-07-14 05:29 PM #33
    Louisvillekid1
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    good luck tonight
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  34. 01-07-14 06:06 PM #34
    Otters27
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    VI is on fire. Like the Ohio St and Vandy play
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  35. 01-07-14 08:41 PM #35
    hoot29576
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    Kinda curious why you are not still playing Rhode Island. You had such a write up on them. Since then they won SU as 9 point underdogs and got beat by 1 at the buzzer tonight as 8 point underdogs

    I think they are a team to keep playing!
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