[adrupert]

Many of you may already know me on here but i will give an introduction. I make a living capping sports, I cap a lot of sports but my best in descending order are: UFC, Soccer, Tennis, NBA, NFL. It takes me about 3 minutes in front of a stats sheet to cap a game, its just something that comes naturally to me as I have always excelled with numbers and mathematics. For many of these sports I have done regression analysis to come up with personal capping systems that I use to cap my sports, although my "systems" is more like guidelines and not an exact formula. I truly believe that for team sports the numbers tell the story more than personal opinion; I find the inverse to be true for individual sports which is somewhat odd (frankly you'd think with less variables stats would be more important in an individual sport, I personally don't find this to be true) so my UFC/tennis picks are not usually derived from a system but from my personal opinion and vice versa for my team sport picks. I am a huge fan of/practice MMA/Tennis in my own life so I have a lot of insight on both and they are also two of my best sports.

Just over two years ago I started with a $20 deposit and a desire to start a new hobby, fast forward to now I have made over 60k while also being a full time student. There was loads of luck a long the way but I would still like to pass on my insight as I like to help others achieve similar goals. I am not here to "sell picks" or any of that hoopla, quite frankly I don't need your money, I make enough on my own with my capping. This is why I would never trust a pay-service either, if they are so good at capping why in the hell would they need to sell their picks to make money? Bunch of bullshit IMO.

My most recent thread got too long and I failed to update it for a while so that is why this new one is popping up. I don't have time for haters, I will not respond to negativity because quite frankly I couldn't care less what an internet troll has to say. Feel free to ask me any questions about my picks, I usually do not give an explanation unless asked. Also if anyone is willing to keep this thread updated so I don't have to that would be sick. I'd be willing to offer my texting app phone number (not my actual cell #, but still reaches my cell) or something to ask about picks in return. I am too lazy to update threads regularly so PM me if you are interested. Also I may not post picks for a few days at a time as I often get flooded by schoolwork, I am a senior in college so you will have to forgive me for that.

My unit is variable but for sake of clarity it is usually around $500, obviously the higher the bet the "higher rated" the pick persay. Now then, let's get the ball rolling

Rockets +1 -105 $630
Celtics +5 -115 $460
Also leaning warriors tonight on the spread against Washington, going to watch line however as I think it could come down to -10ish instead of -11
Andreas Beck +115 $1000
Nicolas Mahut -120 $360

Giants -120 $360

[BIGDAY]

I'm going to tail his MMA. Seems like a winner.

[tony_come]

Thanks man

[Big Bear]

was expecting to see some or some ass...

thread =failure

[tony_come]

Bearish and I are horny

[Smoke]

Toniest not cool

[tony_come]

Smokiest I need a winner NBA????

[Smoke]

Smokiest I need a winner NBA????

Minny +10.5 buy the hook

[tony_come]

Minny +10.5 buy the hook

Thank you smokiest

[Smoke]

My pleasure toniest. GL

[tony_come]

My pleasure toniest. GL

Smokiest good luck

[adrupert]

Minny +10.5 buy the hook

Minny is still missing half their team and I don't see any reason to think this game has any sort of reasonable predictability given all those injuries. Neither team is really playing for anything although Utah has looked like a playoff team second half of season. If anything I'd lean Utah here even with the large chalk (my personal system has utah by 6 to 14, meaning this line seems pretty 50/50) I could understand if you think Hayward isn't going to play but that seems up in the air still, so why minny?

Not bashing, just curious on your insight here

[adrupert]

Also I apologize guys my app had the lineups in the rocket game ****** off, I'd be wary of that pick now as the line seems more 50/50 to me at this juncture. Still like the Celtics to cover without Thomas tonight though, they are very underrated this year IMO especially second half of the season.... Brooklyn has disappointed me all season as well.

[zekeone]

Thanks for info.

GL

[killawookie]

I can't take anyone serious when they put up spring training MLB.. both tennis picks were duds.

[adrupert]

I can't take anyone serious when they put up spring training MLB.. both tennis picks were duds.

Then don't tail. Seems easy enough. I don't care about your opinion if you are going to judge me on one day of picks. Not to mention there were only two tennis picks and one of them hasnt even started.

"Duds" he says. Andreas Beck is 4-0 against his opponent who is also of the same nationality so its likely they know each others games pretty well and that those results would be consistent. I'll take someone who is 4-0 over their same nationality opponent at underdog odds 10 times out of 10.

Mahut was a toss up, he is the better player of the two on hardcourts but the depreciating factor was his age. I've followed tennis for years though and know of Mahuts skill and I didnt see him losing to a clay court specialist on hard court (yes im aware mahut is best on grass).

I'm going to have losing days bro, but i guarantee I will have more winning days then losing ones. My bankroll tells me this. My advice would be to silently pay attention to my picks for a week or two and then decide if you want to tail. Any other course of action seems foolish on your part.

[adrupert]

Also I am making that spring training play because I have heard rumors from other cappers of a fix here. Smallest play of the day though because I am not a believer in trusting rumors over statistics. Lets judge someone on their smallest rated play... LOL

[adrupert]

Not to mention a non-fixed spring training game is a 50/50 basically so at worst I'm just giving the roulette a spin for a game. I trust my info somewhat though so I took a stab at it.

[Professor1215]

Sample size should be taken more seriously. 4-0 is nowhere close to consistent. And where do you come up with nationality as a predictor of success?

Also, 50/50 stabs = a loser in the long run. A spin on the roulette wheel is -EV.

I do like your thread, and hope you hit all of em'. Just want to make sure you keep straight on things so you do not throw your bankroll away. I used to think like you, and it cost me.

No offense intended. Just trying to help.

[19th Hole]

Best of luck with the thread
and your senior year of classes.

[tony_come]

Minny +10.5 buy the hook

Smokiest I'm here@carnevino

[Jeffie]

2-0 in hoops impressive.

[Smoke]

Smokiest I'm here@carnevino

We cashed toniest

[tony_come]

Smokiest cheers

[stevegreazy]

3-2

won both NBA and MLB picks
lost both tennis matches.


GL on your next picks buddy

[BennyBigNuts]

Many of you may already know me on here but i will give an introduction. I make a living capping sports, I cap a lot of sports but my best in descending order are: UFC, Soccer, Tennis, NBA, NFL. It takes me about 3 minutes in front of a stats sheet to cap a game, its just something that comes naturally to me as I have always excelled with numbers and mathematics. For many of these sports I have done regression analysis to come up with personal capping systems that I use to cap my sports, although my "systems" is more like guidelines and not an exact formula. I truly believe that for team sports the numbers tell the story more than personal opinion; I find the inverse to be true for individual sports which is somewhat odd (frankly you'd think with less variables stats would be more important in an individual sport, I personally don't find this to be true) so my UFC/tennis picks are not usually derived from a system but from my personal opinion and vice versa for my team sport picks. I am a huge fan of/practice MMA/Tennis in my own life so I have a lot of insight on both and they are also two of my best sports.

Just over two years ago I started with a $20 deposit and a desire to start a new hobby, fast forward to now I have made over 60k while also being a full time student. There was loads of luck a long the way but I would still like to pass on my insight as I like to help others achieve similar goals. I am not here to "sell picks" or any of that hoopla, quite frankly I don't need your money, I make enough on my own with my capping. This is why I would never trust a pay-service either, if they are so good at capping why in the hell would they need to sell their picks to make money? Bunch of bullshit IMO.

My most recent thread got too long and I failed to update it for a while so that is why this new one is popping up. I don't have time for haters, I will not respond to negativity because quite frankly I couldn't care less what an internet troll has to say. Feel free to ask me any questions about my picks, I usually do not give an explanation unless asked. Also if anyone is willing to keep this thread updated so I don't have to that would be sick. I'd be willing to offer my texting app phone number (not my actual cell #, but still reaches my cell) or something to ask about picks in return. I am too lazy to update threads regularly so PM me if you are interested. Also I may not post picks for a few days at a time as I often get flooded by schoolwork, I am a senior in college so you will have to forgive me for that.

My unit is variable but for sake of clarity it is usually around $500, obviously the higher the bet the "higher rated" the pick persay. Now then, let's get the ball rolling

Rockets +1 -105 $630
Celtics +5 -115 $460
Also leaning warriors tonight on the spread against Washington, going to watch line however as I think it could come down to -10ish instead of -11
Andreas Beck +115 $1000
Nicolas Mahut -120 $360

Giants -120 $360

Cant stop laughing as he follows with spring training plays
Who is this fkn moron?

[BrickJames]

Cant stop laughing as he follows with spring training plays
Who is this fkn moron?

Classic SBR 🍔

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Also I am making that spring training play because I have heard rumors from other cappers of a fix here.

This is all I need to see to predict a train wreck with these picks.

[yak merchant]

Maybe you 3 geniuses can explain something to the class. If betting spring training plays is so "square". Why does Pinnacle take 50k on a regular season baseball moneyline and only 2k on a spring training game?

[BrickJames]

Maybe you 3 geniuses can explain something to the class. If betting spring training plays is so "square". Why does Pinnacle take 50k on a regular season baseball moneyline and only 2k on a spring training game?

Because spring training is the time of the year that coaches are experimenting with different combinations of players because it doesn't matter, no one cares. Also the fact that no one is betting on the games means the lines are not sharp.

[cashin81]

i didnt read any of this

[adrupert]

Sample size should be taken more seriously. 4-0 is nowhere close to consistent. And where do you come up with nationality as a predictor of success?

Also, 50/50 stabs = a loser in the long run. A spin on the roulette wheel is -EV.

I do like your thread, and hope you hit all of em'. Just want to make sure you keep straight on things so you do not throw your bankroll away. I used to think like you, and it cost me.

No offense intended. Just trying to help.

I should have clarified, they practice together a lot from what I know and it is because of this I thought they might know each others games pretty well which would add a mild amount of consistency to the results... but yes 4-0 while not a huge sample size was enough for me to like an underdog here. Probably shouldn't have made such a large play on qualifiers but hey... would've looked great if he won.

I will probably never post another spring training game, that is actually the first one I have ever bet on in my life. I don't bet on MLB really at all to be honest but I trusted my info and whether it was true or not I got the W. Definitely not something I ever would consider doing on a long term basis. I agree that 50-50 is never a good bet, thats how you lose your money; I know that and that's why i like sports betting as I think very rarely is a line truly 50/50 and you have "control of your own destiny" a bit more.

[adrupert]

Cant stop laughing as he follows with spring training plays
Who is this fkn moron?

Again as I said I put no analysis or had any actual insight into that spring training game I just heard some rumors that I trusted (also worst case it was a 50/50 which seems to be your record in your MLB thread if I remember so I guess I just took a page from your book ) I started with $20 but I ended up hitting a $5 parlay on an entire UFC card and made 2500 and just never looked back. I was hooked at that point lol. I expect skepticism, contribute or leave lol your posts are just clutter at this point.

[adrupert]

This is all I need to see to predict a train wreck with these picks.

Here is my last thread: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...-picks-p5.html

At last update my stats were:154-126L-23P +$23,769 (47.538 UNITS) FOR THREAD. (the last 2 pages never got updated as I got busy with school but if you wanted to add them up I'm sure they would be just as good as the rest of the thread as my bankroll has not stopped growing)

[adrupert]

Luton Town live +1 (currently down 2-3, 65th minute) -120 $480

Bucks ml +105 $400
Spurs -3 -110 $440


Not a lot today, eyeing a couple other NBA lines though going to see how they move