Duke G Tyus Jones Over 11.5 Pts @ -140 Jones has made his name as a freshman in "big games" and this certainly is one of those. In the 1st meeting, Jones turned up big in the 2H against Michigan State with all 17 of his points that day. When Jones is at his best, he's getting to the rim and going to the foul line. That is a great combo for points for him as an 89% FT shooter. As the competition amped up in the tournament, Jones' scoring output has done the same. After he scored just 16 pts combined in the 1st two games for Duke, Jones had 15 each against Utah & Gonzaga. Not coincidentally, he got to the FT line 14 times in those last two games after zero trips in the first two. In the 1st match-up with State, Jones got to the line seven times. That will be a key to this one again. I think if Jones can get to the line 5-6 times or more, this should have a real good shot to get done.
Wisconsin-Kentucky Total 3 Point Shots Made Over 10.5 @ -120 I really like this number. Yes, Kentucky is not a huge three point shooting team, but they do have enough firepower from outside with the Harrisons and Booker. Booker has come out of a cold snap with 4/8 from distance in the last two rounds. That's good news against a Wisconsin team that has struggled to cover the three point at times this season and really had issues in the tournament. Arizona did not test them in the Elite 8 with just six attempts, but through the first three games in the tournament, opponents had made 23/35 from long distance. So even with Kentucky only banging home about four to five threes per game, that could easily be much higher tonight. Wisconsin should have a shot to do damage from range again today. The Badgers made 8/20 last year in the Final Four against Kentucky and have been solid in the NCAA tourney with 37 threes through four games on 88 attempts. Wisconsin will need to hit threes to have a shot to win this game as the Kentucky interior will be tough for them to score on, so I do expect to see plenty of threes chucked up by the Badgers again. They shoot 36% from distance for the season and have upped that to over 40% in the NCAAs. Kentucky is a tougher task, but this is an efficient team that gets good looks and if they can make around 7-8, I think Kentucky will do enough to push this over. You can also get this at 5Dimes for Over 11 @ +125 at last check.
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