Originally Posted by
Martinr
Easiest way I can explain it is with the old coin toss analogy.
You know the true chance of either side is:
.500 (50%) or odds of +100.
The books will offer you -110 (bad value. You are guaranteed to lose over time)
You need to bet at odds of +110 (value. You are guaranteed to win over time)
You obviously won't find +110 odds for a coin toss, but you will find +110 odds (or better) on a sports team.
You need a prediction model that tells you when the team should be priced lower than the books have it.
You will not win every bet, but with a disciplined staking approach and an accurate model you will come out ahead over time.
Sorry if that isn't as clear as it should be. The concept is fairly straightforward.
Of course, minus money lines can also be value.
Odds of -200 represent a perceived chance of 66%
if your model tells you that a team is a 70% chance of winning then the -200 is a value bet.