1. 02-23-15 12:42 AM #1
    texhooper
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    Manhattan -3.5 at Marist

    This seems like a gimme on Monday night. Manhattan beat the doo-doo out of Marist in December 60-38 in Manhattan. I believe Marist at the time was without their best player but Jesus H. Christmas Above that was a beating. When said best player for Marist came back, they won four straight, but beat only one decent semi-decent team in Canisius. They have since lost four straight against good teams, including one bad team in Siena. As far as MAAC teams go, Manhattan is good, plus well-coached with former Patino disciple Steve Masiello at the helm. There are no injuries for either team. Now, MAAC guys, why the hell is this line only Manhattan -3.5?
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  2. 02-23-15 12:56 AM #2
    MoMoneyMoVaughn
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    Its quiet. A little too quiet...
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  3. 02-23-15 01:05 AM #3
    texhooper
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    The MAAC guys are on the east coast. They're sound asleep but they will wake up Mo. Oh yes, they will wake up
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  4. 02-23-15 01:10 AM #4
    MoMoneyMoVaughn
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    East coast cappers like myself know their terrible basketball.

    Marist has been very competitive lately. They have lost by less than 4 or won in 7 of their last 8 games. The only blowout was @ Iona. This is not as easy as it looks.
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  5. 02-23-15 01:17 AM #5
    texhooper
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    Ok so anything about the 22 point loss earlier in the year that doesn't seem like that's an indicator of how this game will go?
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  6. 02-23-15 01:26 AM #6
    MoMoneyMoVaughn
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    Quote Originally Posted by texhooper View Post
    Ok so anything about the 22 point loss earlier in the year that doesn't seem like that's an indicator of how this game will go?
    Its definitely encouraging but it was so long ago. Marist's better players missed some time. They are not the team they were in early December. The number of games in which the same players have played one another are so minimal in college hoops that I find it is best to treat every game as its own monster. Also it was on the road. Marist has shown they can stay in games at home quite a few times this season.

    Ken Pomeroy once wrote an interesting blog entry discussing the idea that its best to think of a team as two different teams depending on road / home. While you cannot totally ignore what a team does at home, one of my strategies lately has been to look just at what a team does on the road. Just too much homecourt wackiness in college hoops.

    Indiana for example, is a totally different team on the road this year. At home they are a top 25 team. On the road they are a pretty middle of the road B10 team that cannot play defence.
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  7. 02-23-15 01:29 AM #7
    Urbanwildlife
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    So MoMoneyVaughn, what is your impressions on this game, and are you considering playing it?
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  8. 02-23-15 01:36 AM #8
    MoMoneyMoVaughn
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    Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife View Post
    So MoMoneyVaughn, what is your impressions on this game, and are you considering playing it?
    I don't really know. Any MAAC other than Iona can drop games to pretty bad teams on the road. Also, Marist keeps losing games by the slightest of margins. They're gonna win one of those close games eventually.

    Even with that being said I would definitely lean manhattan. I guess what I am really saying is, this line is not the gimmie it appears to be at first. Maybe even a little too big, but i will never, ever put money on a loser like Marist.
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  9. 02-23-15 01:38 AM #9
    Urbanwildlife
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    Thank you my friend!
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  10. 02-23-15 01:54 AM #10
    xdodger19
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    This is an easy play, Manhattan is a few levels above Marist, and It should be another blowout like 77-60
    If it does not work out, its still the right play. I'm so confident that I'm gonna incorporate it into a parlay.
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  11. 02-23-15 03:04 AM #11
    FilletMaster
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    Quote Originally Posted by texhooper View Post
    Ok so anything about the 22 point loss earlier in the year that doesn't seem like that's an indicator of how this game will go?

    I remember the fortune I lost on Utah a few wks ago ..as they had beaten UCLA by 32 earlier this season.. then lost to UCLA by double digits.. Oh and then that other time I bet on.. well you know how it goes ; ) Every game is different , tread lightly w those 'indicators'.
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  12. 02-23-15 03:06 AM #12
    Iwinyourmoney
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    I went heavy on Manhattan
    Even tho when it looks to good to be true...it usually is
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  13. 02-23-15 08:57 AM #13
    texhooper
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    good points about road and home being made, i totally agree, but i think i'm more coming from the perspective that dodger is in that i have perceived manhattan to just flat out be a few notches above marist. i'll probably end up passing, really was just trying to find something bettable tonight.
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  14. 02-23-15 08:59 AM #14
    jjgold
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    Home Court is your threat here
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  15. 02-23-15 09:15 AM #15
    leetreaper
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    This thread made me double my wager on Marist 1H and full game
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  16. 02-23-15 09:20 AM #16
    jjgold
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    Trap game

    Marist is my lean..I have seen this a million times throughout the years
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  17. 02-23-15 09:26 AM #17
    jjgold
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    Trap game

    Marist is my lean..I have seen this a million times throughout the years
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  18. 02-23-15 11:26 AM #18
    texhooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by leetreaper View Post
    This thread made me double my wager on Marist 1H and full game
    I hope you lose both double too. I won't even be on this game either.
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  19. 02-23-15 11:37 AM #19
    leetreaper
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    Quote Originally Posted by texhooper View Post
    I hope you lose both double too. I won't even be on this game either.
    lmao
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  20. 02-23-15 11:54 AM #20
    GHSCREW
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    There are 2 variations of a trap game. Clearly one is when there is a strong home team playing against a ranked opponent on a Wednesday or Thursday. But I see this as an absolute joke. How is Marist getting this much of a favorable line here? Sure, they played well against Iona at home on Friday I believe, but to give Manhattan 3.5 against a twofaced team who hasn't had a quality win @ home in Conference (only win was to 2nd to bottom Niagara) is ridiculous. Sure, Vegas will profit if the Foxes win, but with little to no crowd atmosphere in Poughkeepsie, I feel Manhattan Stomps.
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  21. 02-23-15 12:06 PM #21
    leetreaper
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    Quote Originally Posted by GHSCREW View Post
    There are 2 variations of a trap game. Clearly one is when there is a strong home team playing against a ranked opponent on a Wednesday or Thursday. But I see this as an absolute joke. How is Marist getting this much of a favorable line here? Sure, they played well against Iona at home on Friday I believe, but to give Manhattan 3.5 against a twofaced team who hasn't had a quality win @ home in Conference (only win was to 2nd to bottom Niagara) is ridiculous. Sure, Vegas will profit if the Foxes win, but with little to no crowd atmosphere in Poughkeepsie, I feel Manhattan Stomps.

    trippling my bets up
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  22. 02-23-15 12:16 PM #22
    Snowball
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    just the other day, Marist almost beat Iona it was down to the final seconds.
    if they can do that, they can beat Manhattan so the bet is risky.
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  23. 02-23-15 01:08 PM #23
    drfunkmaster
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    marist +4
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  24. 02-23-15 01:20 PM #24
    slick15
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    Quote Originally Posted by xdodger19 View Post
    This is an easy play, Manhattan is a few levels above Marist, and It should be another blowout like 77-60
    If it does not work out, its still the right play. I'm so confident that I'm gonna incorporate it into a parlay.
    If it does not work out, its still the right play.

    Only an idiot would say something like that.....If the play loses it`s the wrong side....Get with the program fool.
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  25. 02-23-15 01:46 PM #25
    inZane
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    Quote Originally Posted by texhooper View Post
    Ok so anything about the 22 point loss earlier in the year that doesn't seem like that's an indicator of how this game will go?
    Yesterday, Missouri St who beat Drake 62-37 last month, was getting 2' at Drake and lost 78-43. This shit happens often...
    Last edited by inZane; 02-23-15 at 01:59 PM. Reason: posted Dayton by mistake.thanks yons18
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  26. 02-23-15 01:49 PM #26
    Yons18
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    Lol... Those of you saying that the matchup earlier in the season means tonight will be a blowout should stop making picks right now. Marist is a completely different team this half of the season. They have been competitive as hell. Just look at their last game vs Iona. They were winning at the half, went down by 14 then lost by 4. I would not be surprised if this came down to the wire and Marist walked away with a win.
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  27. 02-23-15 01:50 PM #27
    Yons18
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    Quote Originally Posted by inZane View Post
    Yesterday, Missouri St who beat Dayton 62-37 last month, was getting 2' at Dayton and lost 78-43. This shit happens often...
    Drake not Dayton.
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  28. 02-23-15 02:39 PM #28
    kbm222
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    Marist +4 is the play. Home dogs and playing better now their team is 100% healthy. They gave Iona a major scare on the road last Friday, only losing by 4, they were +8.5 and public was all over Iona. Same thing tonight, public all over Manhattan at -4 and all over the moneyline. Classic trap game here guys, Marist may win outright but I'm playing it safe and taking the points. Good luck!
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  29. 02-23-15 02:44 PM #29
    sbPickz
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    MAYBE! .. its the classic reverse trap where Marist covers a few games & it makes you think another Marist cover than BOOM they finally get ripped a bit. The Good ol' trap reverse from the gun. 4th & goal.
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  30. 02-23-15 03:03 PM #30
    James Marques
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    People on this site love talking about this fade the public BS. Read this and advance to the 21st century, please.

    http://www.onlinebetting.com/fade-the-public/
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  31. 02-23-15 03:07 PM #31
    jjgold
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    Guys its obvious..MARIST

    Its being the form this year in these type situations
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  32. 02-23-15 03:14 PM #32
    Plopowitz
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    Good read James. Thanks
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  33. 02-23-15 03:17 PM #33
    Slanina
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    Sounds like nobody knows.
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  34. 02-23-15 03:17 PM #34
    MoMoneyMoVaughn
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    Here is a fantastic article on home court advantage by Ken Pom. I do not think you have to be a member to read it.

    Road teams are winning more in college, too
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  35. 02-23-15 03:34 PM #35
    MoMoneyMoVaughn
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    "Research I did for College Basketball Prospectus 2008-09 showed that a team that beats an opponent at home by 10-19 points ends up losing the re-match against the same opponent about half the time. Now, think about this. You should quickly realize that even a dominant home win in isolation provides very little information. Sure, if Missouri beats Iowa State at home by double-digits this January, you are going to feel like they have better than a 50/50 shot of winning the rematch in Ames. But that judgment has much more to do with the information you have about the other games each team has played." - Ken Pomeroy
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