1. #36
    707782
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    If it's so easy to win, if everything is planned like you said it's going to be, why are there still fricking tons of sportsbook out there?

    Why 99% of people are longterm losers?

    I'm not saying that it's impossible, but just

    think.

  2. #37
    lytefooted
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    Quote Originally Posted by 707782 View Post
    If it's so easy to win, if everything is planned like you said it's going to be, why are there still fricking tons of sportsbook out there?

    Why 99% of people are longterm losers?

    I'm not saying that it's impossible, but just

    think.
    I'd have to agree. If you calculated a gambler's win percentage over his lifetime, he'd most likely come out on the negative. It should be for recreational purposes only, as it is more for the high. Of course you want to win, but the odds are stacked against you almost all the time. Those big, glitzy glamorous hotels in Vegas stay in business for a reason.

  3. #38
    Justin7
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    I know lots of players who are smart enough to win 54% of their plays. I've seen more than one go belly-up due to lack of discipline. If they are winning (or losing) they raise their bet size higher than is justifiable. I've seen winning players kill themselves in the online casinos, live casinos, or going in tilt.

    I can't emphasize how important it is to keep your cool, whether you're winning or losing.

  4. #39
    MagicBeerBelly
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganchrow View Post
    If you like please feel free to post a spreadsheet with results for your 1,500 wagers including the line at which you bet, the opposing line (if you have it), the amount you bet, and the result of the bet. I could toss it in to my Mone Carlo program and I could tell you just how likely your results are the product of chance.
    Can I take you up on that offer? I've been trying to determine if my results this past hockey season were significant or not, but I'm not sure how to go about it. I've managed a 55.48% winning percent over 566 bets, with the average odds at 2.04.

    My records don't have the opposing line, and my unit size was 5% of my bankroll (not sure if that will work with your program or not)

  5. #40
    Ganchrow
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    Quote Originally Posted by MagicBeerBelly View Post
    Can I take you up on that offer? I've been trying to determine if my results this past hockey season were significant or not, but I'm not sure how to go about it. I've managed a 55.48% winning percent over 566 bets, with the average odds at 2.04.

    My records don't have the opposing line, and my unit size was 5% of my bankroll (not sure if that will work with your program or not)
    Why don't you post a spreadsheet with what you've got?

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  6. #41
    MagicBeerBelly
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    Here ya go, and thanks for the help. It's actually a CSV file, but I changed the extension so I could upload it.
    Attached Files

  7. #42
    Helmut
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    Quote Originally Posted by AspeK View Post
    For sure I will have enough to survive 1 year before quitting my real job. But I dont trust pinnacle like you all do, im pretty sure when they will see that its not luck and that in long term they will never see their cash again they will limit my max limits.

    I dont think I can have bad season/year maybe some bad monthes but if I ever get a year in the minus, that would just prove that my system doesnt work and Im afraid its gonna be too late.

    Pinnacle won't boot you! I beat their week opening numbers all the time for 2-3x limit bets in college hoops. Never once did I get scolded or my limits reduced.

  8. #43
    Ganchrow
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    Quote Originally Posted by MagicBeerBelly View Post
    Here ya go, and thanks for the help. It's actually a CSV file, but I changed the extension so I could upload it.
    A few questions:

    1) Are these bets that you determined you would have placed, or did you actually place ALL of these bets?
    2) Is this the first season you've kept these records?
    3) When did you record these? When you decided to make them, when the game started, or after the game started?
    4) Where and how did you record these?

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  9. #44
    MagicBeerBelly
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganchrow View Post
    A few questions:

    1) Are these bets that you determined you would have placed, or did you actually place ALL of these bets?
    2) Is this the first season you've kept these records?
    3) When did you record these? When you decided to make them, when the game started, or after the game started?
    4) Where and how did you record these?
    1) I placed all of these bets, sort of. One of my rules was that if the odds were less than 1.7, I would instead take the regulation only (-.5) line or -1.5 puckline if the regulation line was also below 1.7.

    Since the file contains the actual recommendations from the program I wrote, testing them will be testing the program. I can elaborate more if you like.

    2) Yes this is the first season I've kept records. It's also the first season I've taken a more serious approach to betting on hockey. Been a recreational bettor for about 8-9 years.

    3) I would run the evening's games through my program before the games started and place my bets usually around 4-5 hours beforehand. Each game produces some output (including a recommended bet, or 'no bet'), and the output from all the days in the season was parsed to produce most of the attached file. At season's end when I was beginning to analyze the results, I wrote a program to download the game results (final scores) and merge them into my reports.

    4) I think I answered this in #3 above, but the file I attached was generated from the reports that were created each day.

  10. #45
    RickySteve
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    Quote Originally Posted by Helmut View Post
    Pinnacle won't boot you! I beat their week opening numbers all the time for 2-3x limit bets in college hoops. Never once did I get scolded or my limits reduced.
    Pinnacle has a default wagering limit which applies to everyone. If they determine that you're especially juicy, they'll raise it, but noone gets lowered (unless you cheat).

    Good to see you at SBR, Helmut. I'm a big fan of your CC appearances.
    Last edited by RickySteve; 05-09-07 at 03:30 PM. Reason: poorly worded

  11. #46
    AspeK
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    Whats that mean? Raising the minimun never heard that before

  12. #47
    durito
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    Quote Originally Posted by AspeK View Post
    Whats that mean? Raising the minimun never heard that before
    He said raising the minimum limit, ie the maximum bet. Pinnacle's minimum is $1 for everyone I believe.

  13. #48
    BuddyBear
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    Good to see you too Helmut....i like your political commentary and emphasis on NCAAB totals....

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  14. #49
    The HG
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    Quote Originally Posted by RickySteve View Post
    Pinnacle has a default wagering limit which applies to everyone. If they determine that you're especially juicy, they'll raise it, but noone gets lowered
    This is wrong. If you live in the US, they will definitely lower your max to less than $1.

  15. #50
    RickySteve
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganchrow HG View Post
    This is wrong. If you live in the US, they will definitely lower your max to less than $1.
    Speaking of juicy...

  16. #51
    The HG
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    Quote Originally Posted by RickySteve View Post
    Speaking of juicy...
    Are you implying that I am juicy? Ok yes, I'll cop to it, yes I am a little juicy. Am I even more than a little juicy? Perhaps, yes. But am I the juiciest poster on SBR? No. In fact, actually, interestingly enough, curiously, ironically, fascinatingly, interestingly, I can actually think of one poster on SBR juicier than I am, and his name is RickySteve.

  17. #52
    pico
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    when your min is lower than 1, pinnacle is telling you to take the money out and leave.

    but i did bet on a event 3 weeks before the start and pinnacle opened the line with max of 10 cents USD. and i tookthe huge favorite (-400)...and i placed the bet for fun and i won 3 cents. my 10 cents bet moved the line from -400 to -410

    i should try to bet 1000 times...oh well, that was the only time i saw that low limit.

  18. #53
    crackerjack
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    I bet we've all had streaks where we thought "this is easy...I could do this for a living!" I once parlayed $500 into balance of $14,000 in about two months. I had that same thought. Then I cashed out $10K and lost the rest and had to reload.

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  19. #54
    buztah
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    Always take some profits off the table.

  20. #55
    135steward
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    beating "the bookie"

    Quote Originally Posted by crackerjack View Post
    If it's what you want to do, good luck to you but I agree with jj...

    That being said, I think being in Canada you have more options. And you certainly have the option of spreading your bets out among different books instead of using one exclusively. If you took a book for $4000 a month consistently they might ban you or reduce your limits. But if you took four books for $1000 a month, you would not draw the same attention.
    When you win a bet at the track, did you beat the track? No. You beat the odds. The track pays you from the other bets. It's the same with sports books.

  21. #56
    Sawyer
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    Quote Originally Posted by BuddyBear View Post
    $50,000 is not much of a bankroll at all to be doing this for a living......if $1000 is your unit and you make on average 3 units a month (3x12 =36) then you've made $36,00 a year or even the 4 unit total would get you $48,000....
    50k is not much of a bankroll at all to be doing this for a living?

    Come on guys, 50k is a good number to make a living at this. Let's say you bet %2 each game. It means you're betting 1k each game. If you make 50 Units over a year, it makes 50k. 50k/year should be enough to cover your living expenses..

  22. #57
    wantitall4moi
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    This thread is over 4 years old.

    But some obviously incorrect points. if you start with 50K and bet 2% on your fitst bet you are then down to 49k. If you bet 1000 on the next play that is more than 2%. If you have 5 games going at one and you go 0-5 you then have 45000 left. So 2% of that is 900 per play, so after 5 plays you have already dropped your bet amount and bankroll 10%. So it is then going to take you that much longer just to get even.

    Every system I have ever seen where people talk about doing this for a living always assumes the best. Or at least starting out winning more than you lose. Which is a bad assumption.

    Betting 2% is also not a great idea. 1% is best, but starting with a bank roll makes it more plausible. And even then you can have 12-15% of your bankroll in play at any given time which is also risky, but going 0-12 or 0-15 is a lot more difficult than going 0-5. So it spreads out the variance.

    Ultimately anyone that thinks theyre smart enough to do it for a living isnt going to take advice from anyone. Unless they have gone broke a few times trying and are looking for what they have done wrong.

    But you also have to factor in withdrawing living expenses, your 'salary', fees to withdraw, and any other miscellaneous expenses you might have to pay for. While your bank roll wont be your entire net worth it will be the way you make your money. So without a job it represents your life basically. So thinking you will double it in a year is foolishness. If you dont make any money the first month. Or even lose money and need 2500 to pay expenses your bankroll is already down to at most 47500. If after 2 months you make a small profit (a thousand bux)and need that same 2500 you are down to 45500 or so. And so on and so forth. To grow your bankroll you have to out profit your expenses, and it isnt very easy to do unless you live at home or mooch off someone and are just a leech.

    I did it, I know what it takes, thats why I know most of the stories people tell are fairy tales, and sound like stuff people without a clue would think. Because they never did it, or more than liekly never had enough money to even try it.

    But even in 07 it was going to be pretty hard to do it, right now it would be damn near impossible. At least running any sound money management risk aversion strategy. Fees have gone up 10 fold, there are maximum withdrawals these days and most places have minimum. So they have you bent over. Your window at most places is between 500-2500, you want more tough shit, or you pay anther fee. No more free monthly withdrawals, no more free book to book transfers, you pay for everything. Those things will eat you alive, a lot more than vig ever thought of, over the long haul.

    And that doesnt even account for the way books are all connected now (even more than then) with clone lines, shitty limits, moving on air to stop anyone from even getting a nickle scalp, etc etc etc.

    Sportsbetting now, unless you have a credit shop or a bookie you can trust is not a very good career right now, hasnt been for a few years. At least not in the U.S. Unless you want to take chances with getting accounts in some places that dont take US customers, but then you have to worry about getting paid if you beat them for enough. Because while most might pay small time US players off that they know live in the US and have fake addresses to bet with them, paying off multiple 5 figure withdrawals (what you need to make a living) might start getting tiresome, and they will just non pay you and boot you. Which will most definitely kill your ROI.

  23. #58
    wiffle
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    wat

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