[KVB]

As posted in the Fly Me thread in the early AM of January 23rd, with conditions:

1. I have learned long ago in both sports and stocks not to get emotionally attached so understand that I am no fan of either team.

2. Some of my methods of handicapping involve processing information in relation to time. There is still much information to be had between now and the super bowl…there is much time. Since the line isn’t really going anywhere, I think it is best to process this information first. In other words, I feel a little uncomfortable predicting so soon.

3. Speaking of information, I have not reviewed the propositions for the big dance in depth, and those lines are sharpening as we speak, but I still have an early prediction.

4. I have constraints on the bets that don’t appear to be in danger with line movement.

5. My advice is subject to change.

That being said, I have early analysis and metrics that indicate this will be a well-organized game for both teams and while New England may actually score first, I think Seattle will essentially take the early command and lead and not let go.

Right now, worldwide, Seattle seems to be the underdog side of a pick ‘em, if that makes sense and in some places New England is a 1 point favorite. The total is 48.

I say buy Seattle up to -4 points and buy the under to 47.5.

For the total, it’s worth noting that 47 is too low. Also, it’s worth noting that the total opened as high as 49.5 and has dropped and has dropped worldwide to 48. The real value wasn’t eroded until it hit 48 though.

In other words, I see no big difference between 49.5 and 48.5, but a significant difference between 48.5 and 48.
Either way, I’m not surprised the line has been dropping.

Point spread line movement is trickier because the line seems to be a pick. The Wynn actually had Seattle -1 at the open, and some other places had the pick with Seattle priced a little higher. The line has moved slightly towards New England.

Usually, by now SuperBowl lines are actually settled, even this early as big money has spoken, but when we are dealing with a pick and price fluctuation, not so much.

While I believe the total will consistently move down towards 47, it is my belief that the side has edged toward New England in hopes of a public reaction, allowing major money to get the best it can before it moves possibly to Seattle -1. Look for that movement.

So in a nutshell, my early prediction is a Seattle win 27-17. In the current situation, that would indicate a buy on Seattle up to -4 points and a position on the UNDER down to 47.5 points.

An indication for both the side and total does worry me a bit, it’s never THAT easy, but it’s looking pretty good for Seattle to repeat as SuperBowl Champs.

Good Luck

[Big Bear]

Great Write-up.

I am not sure there will be any additional information regarding this game that is not already available...

I think the Seahawks will win too if they can hit Brady in his mouth and be really physical with New Englands receivers.

i am not worried about New Englands running game.

on offense i think the Seahawks will attack Brandon Browner. he is slow and the Seahawks coaches know his tendencies.

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

KVB,

I also think this is a good write up.

I also fear that you risk discrediting yourself by misspelling analysis.

[KVB]

KVB,

I also think this is a good write up.

I also fear that you risk discrediting yourself by misspelling analysis.

Mo, delete your post, analyses is plural for analysis. I am analyzing both the total and the side.

[KVB]

Great Write-up.

I am not sure there will be any additional information regarding this game that is not already available...

I think the Seahawks will win too if they can hit Brady in his mouth and be really physical with New Englands receivers.

i am not worried about New Englands running game.

on offense i think the Seahawks will attack Brandon Browner. he is slow and the Seahawks coaches know his tendencies.

Yeah, as far as info and line movement go, I think we are pretty safe. That's why I posted. Not really sure what it would take for me to change the prediction, even an injury to a major player would only force a pass. However, the NFL, and all sports for that matter often have a way of derailing our early predictions. That possibility always makes me a little nervous so early.

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

Mo, delete your post, analyses is plural for analysis. I am analyzing both the total and the side.

I still think analysis makes more sense here. Semantics.

Can I delete posts?

[KVB]

I still think analysis makes more sense here. Semantics.

Can I delete posts?

It just might.

[thechaoz]

Seattle wins by 4 easily

[KVB]

It's SuperBowl week and I think we're seeing those line shifts I was talking about:


pinny 1-26 10 40 am.jpg

[WildCelticsFan]

I'm for sure taking seahawks but gonna wait cause they might be +2 or 2.5 by gameday

[KVB]

I believe the opportunity for Seahawks + points is gone. I know there is a week left, but there likely isn't going to be enough money in the world on one side to push this line either way more than 1 point. Any +1.5 will likely get snapped up quickly in trading.

Keep watching those line movements to remain consistent with my original post...it's telling.

Good Luck.

[ZINISTER]

This is the first post on here in awhile that is thought provoking. Of course we have the dipshyt that wants to critique spelling error. The Under was so easy to settle on it has to be a loser. I hope not because that is the bet I'm going at the hardest. Thinking Pats can exploit the Seattle defense early and hold off the Seahawks to get the win. Bill sees something he can make work against that defense. That Seattle defense is soft on the pass over the middle. The Pats work the clock, play it safe and grind out a close win.

[KVB]

This is the first post on here in awhile that is thought provoking. Of course we have the dipshyt that wants to critique spelling error. The Under was so easy to settle on it has to be a loser. I hope not because that is the bet I'm going at the hardest. Thinking Pats can exploit the Seattle defense early and hold off the Seahawks to get the win. Bill sees something he can make work against that defense. That Seattle defense is soft on the pass over the middle. The Pats work the clock, play it safe and grind out a close win.

Yeah that's why I was worried with both indications. In the past, the total usually gives here while the side comes out alright. That's why I said Seattle could repeat. The total worries me but both are good bets.

Good Luck on the under. I say keep it under 47.5 as I see the value virtually disappearing at 47.

[jjgold]

what nobody factors in is turnvers


its why the NFL is random as far as point spread winners

Too many unknown variables

[KVB]

JJ there are almost as many ways to handicap sports as there are handicappers.

I can handicap a game solely based on turnovers and still search the markets for value. We used to call it the "screw-up" factor.

Make no mistake, I have accounted, to the best of my ability, for turnovers.

The NFL is not completely random, there is not only a rhyme to a season but there is a reason too. If you payed attention all season, you went to class. The playoffs were the midterms and the Superbowl the final exam. Welcome to school. hehehehe

The questions that remain, did everyone pay attention in class? How did you do on the midterms? This is a time to learn from mistakes.

Paying attention to my market constraints are also important. Buying Under 47 is going to show up as a lot more random than buying under 47.5 or even 48.

[KVB]

A story came out recently and here’s the excerpt:

“Predictalator on PredictionMachine.com ran 50,000 simulations of Super Bowl XLIX. And 57.5 percent of the time in its simulations, the Seattle Seahawks beat the New England Patriots.
And from these tens of thousands of simulations, the site has the Seahawks most likely winning by a 24-20 score.”

I wanted to address this “compelling” prediction as it stands against my own forecast of 27-17.

As far as the total is concerned, it is the same at 44. The same betting parameters would apply, buying the UNDER down to 47. The market has moved this direction since the open.

But I have a prediction of Seattle to win by 10 points, not 4. Now, if you think about it, 24-20 is pretty close to 27-17. This is true due to the nature of scoring in the NFL. Here’s how my betting parameters would look with a 24-20 forecast:

With an expectation of Seattle winning by four points I would recommend buying up to Seattle -0.5 points at (-110). Seattle -1 at any price would be too much and there would be no indication. In my opinion, the possibility of a 1 point win erodes the value of the risk taken.

As it stands, Seattle -107 at Pinny would be an acceptable bet with a 24-20 forecast.

Should I be happy that my forecast essentially agrees with the supposed 50,000 simulations of the predictalator or should I be worried as it is now so public? Truth be told, such news can have cause for concern and with my experience, I still believe if one indication were to fail, it would be the Total, not the side.

I would say, despite PredictionMachine, and the fact that SBR poster Seaweed likes Seattle to win the Superbowl, I still think the Seattle Seahawks repeat as SuperBowl Champions.

[Vinnie Paz]

......I fail to see how this is some great "analyses"

[KVB]

......I fail to see how this is some great "analyses"

Never said it was great. Just giving some an insight into approaching the market from the numbers that it offers. Scoring in the NFL is unique, and as such, not all numbers, total or side, are treated the same.

There are many wasy to handicap, but when it comes to comparing your conclusion to the offered market price, many overlook this basic of facts. Some, on the other hand, will understand what is written above and why.

[slacker00]

Good analysis. I came across that predictionmachine site earlier this week, that place looks like a joke.

[Renegades]

Here's some real data thats meaningful.

If NE wins, they would be the first team ever not to be ranked in the top 10 in yards per pass or yards per rush either on offense or defense.

Seattle is ranked 1st, 7th, 2nd and 2nd. In order thats off ypr, off ypp, def ypr, def ypp

Pats rank; 23rd, 19th, 10th and 15th

[Renegades]

Correction- not top 10 but rather the first ever not to be ranked 1-9 in any of the 4 categories

[Petey Wheatstraw]

Great write up.

Cheatrios win.

[Big Bear]

Just an FYI


Seahawks will wear the Home Navy Jersey

Patriots in the Road Whites

Seahawks are 9-1 this season in the Navy jersey if i am not mistaken

[ringemup]

7-7 (6-7 ATS) +133 Units

This is one of the more anticipated Super Bowls I have looked at in a while in what amounts to a matchup of one of the most successful dynasties of this era, the NE Patriots vs. a current dynasty-in-the-making, the Seattle Seahawks. Both teams have gotten to this point by way of home-field advantage although the conference championship game result were on opposite ends. Currently looks about 72/28 betting geared toward NE at a pk line.

NE Offense vs. SEA Defense

With NE coming off a shredding of the Colts defense by Blount, you would expect the Pats to stay with the same gameplan, correct? In my opinion, that won't be the case as it is well-known just how tough it is to run consistently at the Seahawks D and the Pats do not want to become predictable as the game goes along. GB actually succeeded in staying with that strategy but it can just be the fact Seattle was not on their game that day.

Im expecting Pats to run a lot of 5 WR sets to try to counteract the pass rush. They likely will try to run multiple rub routes to open throwing lanes for Brady to get the ball out quick. Look for the Pats to attack the SEA nickelbacks Maxwell and Lane by opening up the field by running deep routes down the field to occupy Sherman, Thomas, and Chancellor. They will do this in an effort to also get Gronk in one-one-one situations. They also may run Blount occassionally in order to keep the pass rushers honest.

In 2012 the Pats used a similar strategy and moved the ball effectively all game as Brady racked up over 300 yds receiving outside of the fact Sherman wasnt playing then. Last yr the Broncos failed to have success spreading the field but most of it was because they were destroyed by the pass rush up front by Mebane, Avril, Bennett and company. The key for the Pats here becomes their pass protection and how it will hold up during the course of 4 quarters.

SEA Offense vs. NE Defense

Russell Wilson back in his 2nd consecutive SB is ironically coming off his worst performance this yr. having been stifled and confused by the GB defense for 3.5 quarters only to lead a miraculous comeback. A couple things to take note of, is that there are a couple of ingredients missing from their offense from a yr ago, Harvin, Tate, and Zach Miller are gone as well as having lost speedster Richardson couple weeks ago. The bread and butter of their offense, Marshawn Lynch looks to put his Beast Mode display to work in this game.

Theres really nothing tricky about the Hawks offense. They go as Lynch goes and a lot of their success is dependent on their zone-blocking principles to find cutback lanes for Lynch to run through or use Wilson as a read-option threat on the backside. The rest is improvisation from Wilson who can either pick up 1st downs with his legs or throw on the run. Their top target outside is Baldwin and Kearse is their downfield threat.

From the Pats perspective, look for them to stay disciplined instead of trying to sell out to stop Lynch. Why? Because this is exactly the formula the Hawks use to try to create misdirection plays with Wilson's legs or Lynch's cutback vision to create big plays. For the most part I think the Pats trust their front seven can be effective as they were terrific vs the run in the 2nd half of the year. Against Wilson the Pats are likely to use their ends to set the edge and keep Russell inside the pocket where he is not a very effective passer, only 23rd in QBR in-the-pocket in 2014. Look for multiple LBs Ninkovich, Collins, and Hightower to shadow Wilson if he should decide to take off for the open field.

In the secondary Revis gets the assignment on Baldwin and it will be up to Luke Wilson, Kearse, and Lockette to find open spaces in the defense but it wont be easy as the Pats secondary is capable of covering for extended play when Wilson scrambles out of the pocket.

As difficult it is to pick a winner here I am going to side with the Patriots because of a key advantage. I believe that Belicheck will have an easier time figuring out how to contain the Hawks offense because they are not complex on offense and for a defensive genius like Belicheck he is also more than likely to throw a few disguises at Wilson and test the young QB in a game of chess.

At the same time as much respect as I give the Hawks defense I feel though GB exposed a few weaknesses with their defense and if a strategy is employed effectively by spreading the field and negating much of the pass rush Brady has the arm and accuracy to make the quick throws into the open spaces. I feel that the Hawks are also not as consistent on pass rushing this yr because of the Mebane injury and having lost Clemons and few others. Also it remains to be seen how Sherman and Thomas will hold up not only against the pass but in run support and it may affect their bump-n-run strategy and how well itll work with one healthy arm.

Throw in the the deflate-gate scandal and the bulletin board material that provides Pats players more fuel for motivation I believe that will have them even more focused. The Pats have a shutdown secondary capable of dominating for long stretches which was the Broncos' Achiles Heel last yr.. I also feel like the right side of SEA's O-line is vulnerable and Belicheck will send some pressure that way no doubt. In the end I expect a great game with possible lead changes and ties but like New England to claim another Super Bowl victory and deny a repeat to the Seahawks. GL to all.

The Play is New England PK 100 Unit Play

[KVB]

Like I said before, there are many ways to handicap a game or a sport. Usually, combining the subjective material with objective, statistical research, one can arrive at a forecast that is more accurate than the oddsmakers and bookmakers can work with.

Some very sharp handicappers actually visualize the game and play it out before it ever even begins. It is wise to take into account the visual evidence; and when analyzing matchups and game plans this is very helpful. I believe poster Ringemup has done that in his analysis.

I’m not sure if this is Ringemup’s whole process, but relying solely on subjective speculation can be risky. Here’s a case where everyone has the same non predictive information and they read it differently.

I have met some very sharp subjective handicappers in my day and it always seems the same with them. They run hot and cold but almost always end up 50-50. Not sure what record that is above, but it looks about 50-50, but with profit.

Being able to more precisely quantify your analysis and build that into your own point spread and then compare that with the market offered will go a long way towards becoming a long term winner.

I came up with a forecast using subjective and objective factors that have been reliably predictive factors and compared that with the market offered.

I didn’t offer the recipe at which I arrived at 27-17 much like I am sure Ringemup has other factors he didn’t share. My insight focused on some relevant key numbers.

It is my feel, that as it stands, Ringemup’s write up of the Superbowl, while a great breakdown of known facts, doesn’t offer a true predictive measurement of the game. It’s a good breakdown, but not much handicapping. The matchup analysis is great but in the end he basically flips a coin and goes with one proven coach over another.

Please note, that I have NO disagreement with Ringemup’s breakdown; I just don’t see that type of analysis as being predictive.

For example, he uses the ball scandal as motivation (as if a SuperBowl victory isn’t enough) for the Patriots. Others see it as a distraction. And a subjective debate ensues.

It takes a great deal of experience to be able to combine the basics of handicapping into a complete picture and then still be able to address the marketplace.

We are all speculating here and we are only offering different levels of opinion. That said, relying on subjective commonly known matters alone to handicap games should be left to most experience of bettors…mastering the “how you use” part of common information.

Ringemup, I hope you qualify.

I will not even address a 14 result 50-50 record up 133 units betting 100 units on the next game.

[BigdaddyQH]

I have seen every Superbowl game. I was actually at the L.A. Coliseum for Superbowl 1. This game features two teams who appear to be rather equal, though that is not necessairily the case. New England is the #1 seed in the AFC. Seattle is the #1 seed in the NFC. Last year we had the same scenario, and we all remember how that blowout ended.

I have a close friend who works for the LVSA (the people who set the lines) and they basically saw this game as Seattle -3 to 4. The reason why they came out looking for a "Pick" line is because they knew that Joe Pub (that is ALL of you guys, whether you want to admit it or not) would look for excuses to pick the Pats. They have the more polished QB. They have a Head Coach who can get away with cheating. They have an owner who is buddy-buddy with the Commish. Because of this, the line was lowered to a "Pick" and that seems to be working perfetly for Vegas. Games are NOT decided by 1 or 2 points, so anything under 3 points is considered to be a pick. The books will do what they have to do to sucker you in. If you take the dog and the points in this game, shame on you. Learn to wager.

The NFC has won the last 4 out of 5 games, with the only loss being the brothers superbowl. Baltimore defeated San Fran by 3 points. The total has run under in most of these past 5 games. It would not surprise me to see the under win again. Seattle is a balanced offense team, and will run the ball as muh as possible. New England knows that it must control the ball, and will also attempt to run the ball, especially in the first half, so Brady does not get killed in the pocket. All of this adds up to a game with a rather low score. The unders in the first half may be the best wager in this game.

The Patsies have played one other Superbowl game in Glendale AZ. That year they lost to the New York Giants 17-14. Do not be suprised to see a repeat of that score.

[ringemup]

No doubt that there was genuine concern when I saw NE being hammered all the way to -2 in some joints. 80/20 is never a good number to back regarding public consensus. As far as predicting s result based on statistics

[ringemup]

No doubt that there was genuine concern when I saw NE being hammered all the way to -2
in some joints. 80/20 is never a good number to back regarding public consensus. As far as predicting s result based on statistics

So to continue my point, the numbers I did look over are red zone efficiency, 3rd down defense, and QBR ratings comparing the two. In a game of this magnitude I have to be honest but numbers may go out the window as far as providing a score prediction. To me taking either side is a considerable gamble given the respect both teams merit which makes the anticipation of this one worth waiting for. On SB Sunday it will be just like Any Given Sunday where nothing is guaranteed despite predictions based on numbers.

[KVB]

I have a close friend who works for the LVSA (the people who set the lines) and they basically saw this game as Seattle -3 to 4.

Read my constraints on buying Seattle, Bigdaddy. I’m sharper than you think. I can make a “Vegas” line as well as my own. Anyone doing this has a much better chance at long term success.

Games are NOT decided by 1 or 2 points, so anything under 3 points is considered to be a pick.

This statement is evidence that BigdaddyQH does not understand the concept behind this thread…the concept of key numbers.

Successful NFL bettors know your statement to be false here. I have many levels of expectation based on various factors but I can tell you that a 1 point margin of victory is often times highly significant and in the top 5 five results in the NFL. I also have evidence that this will increase going forward over the next few years. Chew on that BigdaddyQH.

The NFC has won the last 4 out of 5 games.

I flipped a coin today and it was heads four out of five times. These stats are not predictive over the long haul, despite what emotions tell you when your prediction comes true. When and how they could be predictive is a topic for another thread. Suffice to say, there are two kinds of bettors…streak riders and streak breakers. It takes excellent market awareness to profit from these types of angles. But the focus is on the markets…it’s a game of numbers.

It would not surprise me to see the under win again. Seattle is a balanced offense team, and will run the ball as muh as possible. New England knows that it must control the ball, and will also attempt to run the ball, especially in the first half, so Brady does not get killed in the pocket. All of this adds up to a game with a rather low score. The unders in the first half may be the best wager in this game.

Not a bad analysis here. But its basic and everyone knows this. “New England knows that it must control the ball”…Really? But what if opposing teams know this? What if New England knows that Seattle knows so they change it up? OR what if New England knows that Seattle knows they will change it up so they stay the same? Anyone ever seen the Princess Bride?...lol

Does anyone sit in the coach's war room? Do the coaches tell you the game plan?

The analysis of gameplan is important, as noted above, but at one point, with shit like this, you are still just flipping a coin.

Predictive metrics are usually hidden and not so obvious, or the same information is used in a unique way.

Sorry to sound crass, I most definitely do not know it all, but this is a thread of education and SBR clearly needs it.

[KVB]

So to continue my point, the numbers I did look over are red zone efficiency, 3rd down defense, and QBR ratings comparing the two. In a game of this magnitude I have to be honest but numbers may go out the window as far as providing a score prediction. To me taking either side is a considerable gamble given the respect both teams merit which makes the anticipation of this one worth waiting for. On SB Sunday it will be just like Any Given Sunday where nothing is guaranteed despite predictions based on numbers.

True. The single biggest advantage we bettors have is that we can pass on a game. We don't have to play every game. But in the end, one must ask, is there a good bet here on the SuperBowl? I've answered the question in the first post.

Based on your posts ringemup, I think it's a pass for you. Of course, it all depends on why you bet. Some bet for fun, and some bet for profit.

[KVB]

Keep an eye on those line movements. As expected on both issues, the total has lost value is now a pass at 47 at Pinny and Seattle still sits on the favorite side of a pick 'em:

pinny 1-29 8 10pm.jpg

[casinolyrics]

Pinnacle taking a stand on one side, Bodog on the other. The writing is on the wall.

[KVB]

While I believe the total will consistently movedown towards 47, it is my belief that the side has edged toward New England in hopes of a public reaction, allowing major money to get the best it can before it moves possibly to Seattle -1. Look for that movement.

pinny 2-1 10 30 am.jpg