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Why the quick-release, catch-and-shoot Atlanta Hawks are analytical darlings
This is a terrific read by Peter Keating:
IF THERE'S ONE lesson that has made its way from analytic spreadsheets to NBA courts, it's that shot location matters. But it turns out that when you shoot can be as important as whereyou shoot from. And this season, one team is riding that insight to playoff contention -- and is a lot of fun to watch besides.
Since last season, every arena in the NBA has had SportVU optical-recognition technology in its catwalks, generating a slew of new player-tracking statistics that you can find, for free, on NBA.com. And among all the data, one split really leaps out: It's typically far better to shoot off the pass than to shoot off the dribble. When a player has the ball for two seconds or less, doesn't dribble and takes a jump shot from more than 10 feet, SportVU calls that a catch and shoot. Catch-and-shoot leaders include Klay Thompson, Wesley Matthews and Dirk Nowitzki, who has quickened his release and led the NBA with 8.1 catch-and-shoot attempts per game. On the other hand, SportVU defines a pull-up shot as any jumper outside 10 feet after a player takes at least one dribble before shooting, and you can guess who tops the league by a whopping margin in those. (Right, Kobe Bryant, at 10.9 per game.) According to my calculations, NBA players have an effective field goal percentage of 50.6 percent on catch and shoots this season versus just 41.1 percent on pull-ups.
Of course, players tend to shoot when they're open, so a team might not expect to gain much just by ordering players to throw up a J whenever they touch the rock. But the team could keep players constantly moving off the ball to find a point guard who can pass accurately to them. Or instruct guys who are driving to stay hyperaware of opportunities to dish back outside. Or encourage anyone prone to isolation play to get rid of the ball, even if that means taking the kind of midrange jumpers statheads usually frown upon. The Hawks are trying all of the above, and they have built a new kind of offense based on the catch and shoot.
In Atlanta's second season under Mike Budenholzer(who previously spent 19 years with the Spurs), a kettle of Hawks constantly screen and cut off the ball. Point guard Jeff Teague pinpoints open men. And the entire starting lineup releases quickly and effectively from anywhere, led by Kyle Korver, who might be the best catch-and-shoot man in the NBA. (Korver's effective field goal percentage when not dribbling is an astonishing 78.0 percent. He's over 50 percent on all field goals this year, over 50 percent on threes and over 90 percent on free throws -- a combination no player in NBA history has sustained over a full season.) One particularly beautiful sequence came in the second quarter of a game against Brooklyn on Dec. 5: Teague timed his passes to create secondary opportunities; the ball flew across and around the horn as if it were seeking out Hawks blue; Atlanta hit four 3s; and over a four-minute span, a one-point contest turned into a 15-point blowout.
Overall, Atlanta is taking 30.3 catch-and-shoot attempts per game, the most in the league, and scoring 34.6 points per game on those attempts, 3.2 more than any other club. The Hawks rank sixth in the NBA at 109.4 points per 100 possessions, up from 18th last season. And after a 19-7 start, including a 127-98 demolition of LeBron James and the Cavaliers on December 17, they're ready to shed their status as one of the NBA's best-kept secrets.
The Hawks' emphasis on the catch and shoot has generated benefits beyond these basic numbers too. For one thing, it has allowed the team to rework big man Al Horford, back from a torn pectoral muscle last season, into the lineup in a smart way. Horford likes to take long-range 2-pointers, usually the most inefficient shots in basketball. But rather than forcing him to change or limit his game, Atlanta has focused on getting him open. Nearly 40 percent of Horford's attempts are coming from 16 feet from the basket out to the 3-point arc, according to Basketball-Reference.com -- but that's OK because he's sinking 50 percent of those shots. Another example: Because they position so well, the Hawks are outstanding on transition defense, limiting opponents to just 9.2 fast-break points per game, the fewest in the league, according to TeamRankings.com.
Atlanta, in short, is operating creatively within the discipline of a whole new system. You can see it in the numbers. And if you have the chance to see them in person, do as the Hawks do: Show no hesitation.
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Originally Posted by TwoWays
