This is a great thread to understand the concept of Handicapping.
Understand that Handicapping is a PROSPECTIVE venture. You're trying to forecast a future event, so there's always an element of uncertainty.
Psychologists write about the Confirmation Bias. Even the most grounded person might see results and say "I knew it." No, that's just what the result was.
Long-story short, Retrospective analysis is ez. All u have to do is look at the box-score. Prospective analysis is hard, b/c You Just Never Know.