[Fishhead]

Go!

[t-wizzle]

30-24 Cowboys seems about 86.3% likely.

[Fishhead]

This a Playoff line and total of 48 should be factored somewhere in your math..........

[pavyracer]

Not many games land at 6. I'd say there is a greater chance landing at 7 than 6 but the best chance is to land at neither.

[t-wizzle]

This a Playoff line and total of 48 should be factored somewhere in your math..........

Yea I originally typed 27-21 but I think I added a field goal to each team.

[Fishhead]

Not many games land at 6. I'd say there is a greater chance landing at 7 than 6 but the best chance is to land at neither.

Not the answer

The question is what are the chances the cowboys win by exactly 6 OR 7

[innovation]

points don't matter in the wildcard games

just pick the winner, you'll be in line with a 34-3 trend going back 8 years

[Fishhead]

Let me get you started.....it's somewhere between 2-18%, work from there.

[STAX]

I'm guessing Dallas wins by exactly 6 or 7 points 15-20% of the time... -260 on the ML translates to 72% of the time Dallas wins... With the line being Dallas -7, and 6 or 7 pts being a frequent outcome, I guess that 25% of the Dallas wins will be by 6 or 7. .25 times .72 = .18 or 18%... +/- a couple pts and I get 15-20%. So probably a great time to try and middle the game!!

[Fishhead]

I'm guessing Dallas wins by exactly 6 or 7 points 15-20% of the time... -260 on the ML translates to 72% of the time Dallas wins... With the line being Dallas -7, and 7 pts being the most frequent outcome, I guess that 25% of the Dallas wins will be by 6 or 7. .25 times .72 = .18 or 18%... +/- a couple pts and I get 15-20%. So probably a great time to try and middle the game!!

Please tell the forum this was a sarcastic post before you're laughed into unconsciousness ........

[Jimmy Proffett]

3.5%

[STAX]

please tell us you dont honestly believe there is a right answer here?

[jjgold]

11%

[STAX]

14% of all NFL games are decided by 6 or 7 pts exactly. The line is 7 pts exactly so that 14% only increases. Bare minimum your number is 10.5%... I put it at 15% minimum...

[opie1988]

I know 1 undeniable fact....Fishhead is a douche

[sandos139]

Boys by at least a TD...bol

[d2bets]

8.34%.

[d2bets]

14% of all NFL games are decided by 6 or 7 pts exactly. The line is 7 pts exactly so that 14% only increases. Bare minimum your number is 10.5%... I put it at 15% minimum...

But he said Cowboys by 6 or 7, not either team.

[jjgold]

Opie you're real prick back off him now

I know 1 undeniable fact....Fishhead is a douche

[trytrytry]

lets add this answer into this npr article.


http://www.npr.org/2014/07/22/332650...does-that-mean

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Fish, u got the middles/hedges working?

[STAX]

But he said Cowboys by 6 or 7, not either team.

No shit, read my first post

[jjgold]

Nobody makes six-figure slots
Slot machines are the biggest moneymaker's in Vegas

He might've had a lucky year winning 60 or 70,000k but in the long run he's got to be down to 300,000. I don't totally know for sure but I heard he play slot machines day and night and loses everything.

Do you think think He would learn after all these years you can't win playing slots

He posted a video a few weeks back arguing with the casino manager and he claiming the machine jammed and and it owes him $15 and was going nuts. I thought he was going to kill the guy, that's cold gambling frustration.

Everytime I've seen Fishhead post a play before the game starts, it's a loser. Yet he wants everyone to believe he's a successful sports bettor and makes 6 figures playing slots.

[d2bets]

No shit, read my first post

It could happen, but 15-20% is way too high. The correct answer is somewhere between 7-10%.

[d2bets]

Everytime I've seen Fishhead post a play before the game starts, it's a loser. Yet he wants everyone to believe he's a successful sports bettor and makes 6 figures playing slots.

He didn't even post a play here - he asked a question.

[Fishhead]

It could happen, but 15-20% is way too high. The correct answer is somewhere between 7-10%.

closer to 10......

[STAX]

It could happen, but 15-20% is way too high. The correct answer is somewhere between 7-10%.

10% is bare minimum. 14% of all games are decided by 6 or 7 pts exactly. Dallas is 72% to win, so .72 * .14 = .10 or 10%... throw in the fact that the line is -7 exactly adds on a lot to our probablility. 20% probably too high, but 15% is pretty acurate imo.

[Fishhead]

... throw in the fact that the line is -6 or -7 exactly

Correct thinking

[d2bets]

10% is bare minimum. 14% of all games are decided by 6 or 7 pts exactly. Dallas is 72% to win, so .72 * .14 = .10 or 10%... throw in the fact that the line is -7 exactly adds on a lot to our probablility. 20% probably too high, but 15% is pretty acurate imo.

Where are you finding that 14%? Haven't looked lately, but that seems a tad high. 15% is not accurate. No way.

[biggie12]

32% no more no less

[Fishhead]

32% no more no less

FOUL POST

[Fishhead]

Any good finds in the El Cortez dumpsters today FH?

No, but found a temperpedic seat cushion recently.....retail value, $70-85

Won a couple slot tourneys downtown just recently, won 1k for each.

....all the downtown area casinos have been good at one time another for sharp advantage gamblers in recent months, from sports to machines.

Vegas very good on many fronts right now, times are decent.

[STAX]

Where are you finding that 14%? Haven't looked lately, but that seems a tad high. 15% is not accurate. No way.

http://www.marasoft.com/nfl-margin-victory.php

13.80% to be exact... and that is for all NFL games over the last 20 years... throw in the act that the line is -7 that 13.80% only grows, in fact it grows a lot.

[Fishhead]

http://www.marasoft.com/nfl-margin-victory.php

13.80% to be exact... and that is for all NFL games over the last 20 years... throw in the act that the line is -7 that 13.80% only grows, in fact it grows a lot.

You're missing another factor, a key factor, with your math......D2 will point out

[Fishhead]

You're missing another factor, a key factor, with your math......D2 will point out

Let me give you a clue....

If an NFL game lands -3 roughly 15% of the time, do you think a team favored by -3 wins by -3 at least 15% of the time??????

(The answer is a resounding NO)