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What do you think of this play? Minnesota and Chicago
Just now, in the Minnesota game, the Vikings have the ball at the Chicago 3 yard line and 4th and 1.....and they are up 13-9 with 2 minutes left.
Do you go for it? Do you knock the chip shot through, knowing that no matter what happens (your D has been great all day) you are up 7 and the Bears have to go 80 yards in 2 minutes.....
Thoughts??????
Let's cut to the chase. You wanted the field goal and it obviously looks like the best move since they didn't get it on 4th down.
I am asking as an analyst. Just give me your opinion.Originally Posted by t-wizzle
Yes, of course I was on Minny -6.5.....but am having a tough time understanding the motivation behind it.
The motivation is that you're forcing the other team to go 97 yards in 2 minutes knowing they need a TD regardless of whether or not you kick the FG. They liked their chances better with Chicago backed up against their own goal line and with a wreckless quarterback.
Football coaches on all levels have a very low game management iq. Don't know why, but that is a fact
That makes no sense....you are going to kick it into the end zone.....so there is no opportunity for a run back. SO you give up 3 points for 17 yards?
This is why people don't like you man. You don't come into things with an unbiased point of view. You come into almost any scenario, and always take a hard-line contrarian approach. It doesn't become you.....you could be better than that.
Stay on topic. Why is the touchback a given? You realize it's 20 degrees in Minnesota right now? That's just a silly assumption by you.
Because their K hadn't allowed a run back all day. Even if it is (which I will not concede) you are still putting yourself in a vulnerable position by not kicking the FG.
Are you telling me that you would make the decision there to go for it?
I don't have a problem with it whatsoever. You get a yard the game is essentially over. You get a TD, the game is 100% over. You don't get a first down, and I've already laid out that scenario.
Not like either team is playing for a playoff spot so that's even more reason to just go for the win right there.
Much as I hate to say it Wizzle probably right here D2D. Making Bears go length of field with a td being a must not bad choice here. Maybe if gm meant something I would agree you kick. But nobody wants to risk o.t. in a wk 17 gm where the season is over for both sides. Does anyone know what Vegas needed? Probably Bears to cover I'm sure haha.
Much as I hate to say it Wizzle probably right here D2D. Making Bears go length of field with a td being a must not bad choice here. Maybe if gm meant something I would agree you kick. But nobody wants to risk o.t. in a wk 17 gm where the season is over for both sides. Does anyone know what Vegas needed? Probably Bears to cover I'm sure haha.
I think going for it was the right call. Bears still needed a TD. And if they didn't get it then the Bears have to go 96 yards. And it eas 4th and inches. If they get it then they burn a bunch of time at a minimum, and likely get in and go up by 2 scores. The upside was just much greater than the downside.
Wk 17 with nothing to play for bigger factor here guys. Like I said earlier in season or something on line you take 3 no doubt in my opinion. But NOBODY wants an extra frame in this scenario and that environment weather wise.
Bears were also out of timeouts, so I think Zimmer made the right call. Bears also did have a 67-yard kickoff return earlier in the game. Special teams play was likely only way Bears could score.
Stats tell you TD
I still disagree. Has nothing to do with Wk 17 and nothing to play for. Just in terms of odds, the upside is so much bigger than the downside. I mean, the Bears have a better chance to get a TD if the Vikes kick the FG. If you run reasonable odds on each scenario I think it would be pretty easy to see that going for it is the correct call. Let's say converting was 50/50. On 4th and inches, it may be better than that, but I'll go with 50%. And then let's figure Bears odds of TD if they had kicked off (25%) vs. starting from the 4 (15%). If they convert the first down, they would either get a TD effectively ending the game (~ 1%) or they'd kill the clock down to under 1 minute (say 3% to tie, 1.5% to win). Both neglible.
So by going for it:
a. They had a 50% chance to end the game
b. 15% chance to lose
c. Combined that's a 7.5% loss expectation
By kicking:
a. 25% chance of TD forcing OT and thus 12.5 chance to lose.
7.5% vs. 12.5%. Going for it was better.
You can play with those numbers, but if anything I think I was pretty conservative.
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