Originally Posted by
Eddy Munny
Not sure what the meaning of this post is... There was no baiting in the LSU game.
The public just simply often fails to read the waters beyond the surface. If you look at records and rankings, which is a mindless, superficial way of handicapping a game, then I could see how LSU looked enticing. But more astute cappers realize that Arkansas is a quality team who couldn't quite catch the breaks to finish off some close games this season... a team better than their record. They had Alabama and Mississippi State on the ropes this year, so what's not to like?
Furthermore, LSU is a team that is offensively challenged and was coming off back to back physically and emotionally draining games against the likes of Ole Miss and Alabama... the latter of which went to overtime. Meanwhile, Arkansas was fully rested and game-planned for LSU, having had a bye. On top of all this, the Hogs get the home field advantage... so of course Vegas wasn't going to make LSU the favorite under these circumstances, hence there was no "trap."
If they had released a number that you personally would have deemed fit, LSU -6 for example, maybe they still generate some public backing on the Tigers (although it would have been considerably less), but the sharps would have come in and absolutely murdered them. Even as a smaller chalk, say LSU -3.5, Vegas would have been in a vulnerable spot. On a neutral field, LSU is probably laying that number, but on the road, especially given the intangibles of the previous week, Arkansas becomes the slight favorite, and understandably so.
So thank you for mentioning this game. This serves as a prime example as to why the public sees a line that doesn't compute with their square paradigm and automatically get paranoid that they're being duped i.e. "Looks too easy, therefore fishy..."
We can't confirm that Vegas wanted people backing LSU before the game because we can't see their ledger. What I do know is that the spread placed on the game was more or less accurate, all things considered. For the record, I bet Arkansas 1H as a pick'em because of facts I already laid out, not because I was trying to sidestep some perceived landmine set by the books.
As for the NFL games you mentioned, SF does not look sweet to me at all. I'm either taking Giants +4 or laying off the game altogether. And although the Rams have clipped a couple of good teams, and almost a couple more, I'm not getting in the way of that freight train known as Peyton Manning, especially in a dome. Broncos or nothing for me. You could say that's what Vegas wants me to think, but I could counter with the fact that I thought what they "wanted me to think" last week (-11 @ Oakland) and it didn't end well for them.