1. #1
    stevenash
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    Get a load of this NFL trend for Sunday

    Stumbled upon this playing around earlier.

    The Buffalo Bills are 21 and 2 ATS when facing a losing team (Vikings fit the trend spot here) the week after playing the New England Patriots.

    If you are hungover from last night, I'll help you out here.

    Buffalo Bills lost to the Patriots last week 37-22.
    They are playing a losing team (or under .500 if you will) in the Minnesota Vikings.

    I liked Buffalo before spotting this trend.
    I like them more now.

    Bills -5

  2. #2
    Bostongambler
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    Good find Stevenash

  3. #3
    pattymayo
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    there's been a few times over the years where Buffalo lost to NE in week 17, so are you counting the week after week 1 of the following season?

  4. #4
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by pattymayo View Post
    there's been a few times over the years where Buffalo lost to NE in week 17, so are you counting the week after week 1 of the following season?
    Yes

  5. #5
    2daBank
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    like bills already as well..

  6. #6
    Goat Milk
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    where do you find these stats?

  7. #7
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goat Milk View Post
    where do you find these stats?
    You want the long winded, bore you to tears, "wish I never asked" version
    or
    Short and sweet

  8. #8
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Stumbled upon this playing around earlier.

    The Buffalo Bills are 21 and 2 ATS when facing a losing team (Vikings fit the trend spot here) the week after playing the New England Patriots.

    If you are hungover from last night, I'll help you out here.

    Buffalo Bills lost to the Patriots last week 37-22.
    They are playing a losing team (or under .500 if you will) in the Minnesota Vikings.

    I liked Buffalo before spotting this trend.
    I like them more now.

    Bills -5
    you dont think this is factored into the line?

    i had this game capped at Bills -2.5

  9. #9
    pattymayo
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    and how far back does this trend go? must go back 10+ years

  10. #10
    Goat Milk
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    You want the long winded, bore you to tears, "wish I never asked" version
    or
    Short and sweet
    The link will suffice.

  11. #11
    a4u2fear
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    Trends are stupid.

    You SHOULD like this Bills this week. It's because they are very similar to Detroit on defense, and Detroit annihilated the Minnesota line; which Buffalo will also likely do. Last week Bills played a couple of schmucks at safety with Aaron Williams out - he's back in.

    Bills in a 23-7 type game.

  12. #12
    jjgold
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    nashy good trend although trends can break too

    I never trust Bills

  13. #13
    TheKLB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goat Milk View Post
    The link will suffice.
    http://killersports.com/nfl/trends

  14. #14
    warbux
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    I'm going to ride with you on this!

  15. #15
    pattymayo
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    trends can be manipulated to support any side, what about this one

    The Bills are 2-14 ATS (-8.72 ppg) since Oct 07, 2012 after a game at home

  16. #16
    44 Mag
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    The same could be said for a ton of NFL teams. If you really researched it. Coincidence, Buffalo is not that good, but neither is their opponent.

  17. #17
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear View Post
    Trends are stupid.

    You SHOULD like this Bills this week. It's because they are very similar to Detroit on defense, and Detroit annihilated the Minnesota line; which Buffalo will also likely do. Last week Bills played a couple of schmucks at safety with Aaron Williams out - he's back in.

    Bills in a 23-7 type game.
    I was on the Bills before I spotted that.

  18. #18
    pavyracer
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    They are playing the Vikings. Won't need trend's help.

  19. #19
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    The same could be said for a ton of NFL teams. If you really researched it. Coincidence, Buffalo is not that good, but neither is their opponent.
    I think that trend has something to do with the after effects of playing New England.
    Hank Gola is a sports blogger/writer, that is where I spotted this trend, I verified using SQL database on excel.
    Just tell your database to pull up past results when certain factors are involved.
    For instance, you can tell a database, using SQL or whatever language, how many TD catches did Marhall Faulk have out of the backfield from 2001-2003?

  20. #20
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    The same could be said for a ton of NFL teams. If you really researched it. Coincidence, Buffalo is not that good, but neither is their opponent.
    Buffalo is so-so, Vikings are awful

  21. #21
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Stumbled upon this playing around earlier.

    The Buffalo Bills are 21 and 2 ATS when facing a losing team (Vikings fit the trend spot here) the week after playing the New England Patriots.

    If you are hungover from last night, I'll help you out here.

    Buffalo Bills lost to the Patriots last week 37-22.
    They are playing a losing team (or under .500 if you will) in the Minnesota Vikings.

    I liked Buffalo before spotting this trend.
    I like them more now.

    Bills -5
    How many of the 23 were the Bills favorites (and how many at least -5 or more)?

  22. #22
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    How many of the 23 were the Bills favorites (and how many at least -5 or more)?
    a) 6
    b) 2

  23. #23
    Smoke
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    I trust stevenash

    POUNDING

  24. #24
    I/O
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    putting money down on a game all based on ONE trend

  25. #25
    JMon
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    You guys are funny. There are threads utilizing sdql in ever sport. Been using it for over four years now.
    and 2fear you are fool to think otherwise.

  26. #26
    I/O
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    You guys are funny. There are threads utilizing sdql in ever sport. Been using it for over four years now.
    and 2fear you are fool to think otherwise.
    If data base mining actually worked, Vegas would have been history years ago.

  27. #27
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by I/O View Post
    If data base mining actually worked, Vegas would have been history years ago.
    Clearly subjective thinking here. It doesn't beat vegas, yet another way to handicap. If used incorrectly, it's no more than flipping a coin. For instance the trend link above.

    I use it more for situational play and it's very advantageous. I posted a 10-2 post season (+8.57) in the MLB SDQL thread, all documented. Getting ready to post KC game one.

  28. #28
    I/O
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    Clearly subjective thinking here. It doesn't beat vegas, yet another way to handicap. If used incorrectly, it's no more than flipping a coin. For instance the trend link above.

    I use it more for situational play and it's very advantageous. I posted a 10-2 post season (+8.57) in the MLB SDQL thread, all documented. Getting ready to post KC game one.
    It's called "average to the mean"

    Congrats on your winning season. Do it over 10 or 20 years.

  29. #29
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by I/O View Post
    It's called "average to the mean"

    Congrats on your winning season. Do it over 10 or 20 years.
    Yes regression is figured in friend. I've had 4 years of profits using such. Like I said just another way to handicap. No different than what we all try to achieve here.

  30. #30
    sweethook
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    lets cash it steve , gl

  31. #31
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    Yes regression is figured in friend. I've had 4 years of profits using such. Like I said just another way to handicap. No different than what we all try to achieve here.
    And it's not the end all be all either.
    I use it as an enhancer, in other words, I liked Buff. even before seeing this trend, this trend just enforces my thoughts.

  32. #32
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by pattymayo View Post
    and how far back does this trend go? must go back 10+ years
    It must?
    Why?
    Because you said so?

    Let's see, both teams play each other twice a year, the sample size here is 23 games, two divided by 23 is.....?
    You do the math

  33. #33
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    And it's not the end all be all either.
    I use it as an enhancer, in other words, I liked Buff. even before seeing this trend, this trend just enforces my thoughts.
    bol...I'm not on this play, but value your logic, post #19. But I did run this query and I got 19-2 (ATS) 16-5 (SU) since 1990. Average line (-.7). Browns got them in '08, 27-29 as 5 pt. favs, and Bengals got them in 2011 as 3pt favs. Wanted to see how they did non conference, 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS...

    Bol of luck for those on this game! Just not enough for me too play it!

    Critical thinking and an open mind is the key to winning in gambling!

  34. #34
    I/O
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    Well the good thing is, after this game, if the trend is 21-3, it can be trotted out when the situation arises again.

  35. #35
    NostraDanUS
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    road team: Minnesota : current rating = 13.97, last_3_delta = - 4.28, ATS record: 2- 4, O/U: 2/ 4
    home team: Buffalo : current rating = 18.86, last_3_delta = - 2.08, ATS record: 3- 3, O/U: 1/ 5

    Buffalo favored by 5.5
    over/under: 42.5

    ***

    Minnesota road ATS record: 1- 2
    Buffalo home ATS record: 1- 2

    Minnesota home sched rating: 21.13, ave MoV: -8.00
    Minnesota road sched rating: 20.02, ave MoV: -5.00

    Buffalo home sched rating: 23.56, ave MoV: -2.67
    Buffalo road sched rating: 20.90, ave MoV: 0.00

    Minnesota home/road ratings: 9.30 / 16.89
    Buffalo home/road ratings: 17.43 / 23.36

    Minnesota ave points for/against/combined: 17.33 / 23.83 / 41.17
    Buffalo ave points for/against/combined: 19.17 / 21.00 / 40.17

    Minnesota home points for/against/combined: 17.00 / 25.00 / 42.00
    Minnesota road points for/against/combined: 17.67 / 22.67 / 40.33
    Buffalo home points for/against/combined: 20.33 / 23.00 / 43.33
    Buffalo road points for/against/combined: 18.00 / 19.00 / 37.00


    ----------------------------------------------------------------------


    head-to-head history (lined games):

    12/ 5/2010 Buffalo 14 + 5.5 at Minnesota 38
    10/ 1/2006 Minnesota 12 + 0.0 at Buffalo 17
    9/15/2002 Buffalo 45 + 5.0 at Minnesota 39
    10/22/2000 Buffalo 27 + 7.0 at Minnesota 31
    8/31/1997 Minnesota 34 + 2.5 at Buffalo 13
    12/11/1994 Minnesota 21 + 3.5 at Buffalo 17

    average outcome:
    Minnesota 29.2 Buffalo 22.2
    margin = -7.00

    time-weighted average outcome:
    Minnesota 31.5 Buffalo 15.3
    margin = -16.23

    average result when the home team is Buffalo
    Minnesota 22.3 Buffalo 15.7
    margin = -6.67

    average result when the home team is Minnesota
    Buffalo 28.7 Minnesota 36.0
    margin = 7.33

    66.67 % of games went Over
    33.33 % went Over at Buffalo

    average total points per game = 51.33
    time-weighted average total = 46.75

    the home team covered 33.33 % of the time
    the road team covered 66.67 % of the time
    Ave ATS differential = -3.58

    the favorite covered 20.00 % of the time
    the underdog covered 80.00 % of the time
    Ave ATS differential = -4.30

    the favorite won SU 40.00 % of the time

    Minnesota covered 50.00 % of the time
    Buffalo covered 50.00 % of the time

    Buffalo covered 33.33 % of the time at home
    Buffalo covered 0.00 % of the time as home favorites


    ----------------------------------------------------------------------


    similar games:

    12/ 8/2013 Minnesota 26 + 6.0 at Baltimore 29
    12/14/2008 Buffalo 27 + 7.5 at NY Jets 31
    10/15/2006 Tennessee 25 +10.0 at Washington 22
    9/18/2005 Cleveland 26 + 6.5 at Green Bay 24
    11/21/2004 Miami 17 + 9.0 at Seattle 24
    11/16/2003 Detroit 14 +10.0 at Seattle 35
    10/27/2002 Detroit 17 + 7.5 at Buffalo 24
    10/14/2001 Detroit 26 + 9.5 at Minnesota 31
    10/17/1999 Philadelphia 20 + 7.0 at Chicago 16
    11/ 1/1998 Arizona 17 + 6.0 at Detroit 15
    11/ 3/1996 Tampa Bay 10 + 6.5 at Chicago 13
    9/ 3/1995 Cincinnati 24 + 6.5 at Indianapolis 21
    12/ 4/1994 New Orleans 31 + 3.0 at LA Rams 15
    12/15/1991 New England 6 + 7.0 at NY Jets 3

    mean score road team 20.4 home team 21.6

    average point spread = + 7.3

    the home team covered 7.14 % of the time
    the road team covered 92.86 % of the time
    ave ATS Differential = -6.07

    the favorite covered 7.14 % of the time
    the underdog covered 92.86 % of the time
    ave ATS Differential = -6.07

    the favorite won SU 50.00 % of the time

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