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Line Moves In NFL Mean Nothing
Falcons open -2.5 close -5. Vikings win.
Jets open +2 close -2. Lions win.
Jaguars open +14 close +12. Chargers win 33-14.
Bills open +4 close +2.5. Texans win 23-17.
I always laugh when people jump on a team and then justify the pick by the line movement and then the team loses.
Depends on what moves the line. Is it sharp money? Public overreaction? Money Line and teasers getting pounded? The Atlanta overreaction was the dominating win over Tampa Bay, a rookie QB in Minny, and the Falcons getting a near bye leading up to the game. Sharps were on the Jets and Bills.
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Of course sharps move lines. A sharp moving the line vs the public is still a loss if you predict wrong.Originally Posted by El Nino
sharper players were on all those sides, they lose like anyone else and get killed at times. over time they will win more often than they lose as they do not bet over their heads. this week means zero in the grand scheme of things. good luck!
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BigBear says they do make a difference.
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Yep, it is a loss for that game. Long term, fade the sharp picks and be on the wrong side of all the line moves and let me know how that works for ya.
My game plan in the NFL is to fade twizzle and big bear plays. It's much easier to fade squares than tailing sharps.Yep, it is a loss for that game. Long term, fade the sharp picks and be on the wrong side of all the line moves and let me know how that works for ya.
Lol Pavy is so butthurt about his shitty Falcons getting rolled yesterday.
I was on Vikings large, jets small, texans small, titans small based on what I felt the lines should of been regardless of movement. Be careful with line watching, sometimes the books will move a line to get people off a side vs get them on a particular side ( I know most of us know this , I'm just reiterating ). I almost like it when the line moves in favor of other side of my bet.
Some guys get it some dont. Nino and the best there is get it. Good luck long term Pavy
Falcons were the squarest play on the board and this dope fell for it.
Now he wants to blame line movement.
Quit being a sore loser and try to pick a winner for once in your life.
There is no juice if you win. amirite?
Your record is : YTD: 17-21 -20.01 Units (without adding the 2.5 units on Cowboys/Saints under).
Don't stop. We need you!
They never meant anything
The NFL is unpredictable it's why you could bet 50,000 a game on them
No such thing as sharp
That's leetreaper's record you idiot.
Lol you failed yet again.
Lol
watching the line moves is important. if the lines dropping then it's because the public is pounding one side of the other, if the line drops I'm taking the team that went up or down with the line movement. works almost all the time. i had some line drops yesterday, for example, the line dropped on the greenbay game from -2 to pk, jumped all over the pack because huge bears money evened out the play, and the same with jags/sd the line went from -14 to ( my guy had it at -11.5) jumped all over the chargers because the public jumped.......also follow where most of the money is getting waged on, atlanta had huge amounts waged on them and then look what happened, also tons of money played on the eagles getting those points, and the line did drop about 2 points on that game and the 49's hung on, with the eagles knocking at the door...............ne tonight is getting pounded on by the public, will wai to see if that's the right side, but KC at home and getting points and why has the line dropped already from open at -4 to -3 and in some spots -2.5, NE just might be the play............
YES! Line movement means something, but it depends on what moves the line. Because believe it or not, things other than "sharp money" move the line. Sometimes the books move lines just to fool you...hence the Falcons line move. It really bothers me when people attribute line moves solely on "sharp money" please, give me a break.
There's no such things as sharps or sharp money they are no better than you and cannot tell who's going to fumble on the 5 yard line
spot on.
this is true for NFL 2014. !
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Yes there are and yes they can. Turnovers and Red zone scoring probability are in every model. Quit being a mascot.
Terrible post. For a bunch of reasons I'll let you try n figure out.
This was true for most of 2013. The sharps are clearly feasting so far this year.
Oh, everyone. This pavyracer guy has a hilarious thread in saloon being caught lying about banging some milf.
its pretty cringeworthy. Some guy named chargersxxxxxxx exposed him.
pavy, are you a 400 lb vigin? If not, wtf is wrong with you? And please seek treatment.
I just go to the local OTB, and ask everyone who they like. Works like a charm, last night asked 12 guys, all 12 on N.O. Thank you.
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One other key detail, try to ask only the guys who have stains on their t-shirts.
Line movement is close to 60% the last 3 years.
Great sample size.
Epic thread!
Pavy is 400 pounds??
right look for banged up penetrates if you are going to do this method
To be honest Jets, Jaguars and Bills were the right plays.
This guy sure is declaring him/herself a real ass clown. JJgold what a clown.
Last edited by recon1; 09-29-14 at 04:25 PM.
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