[No coincidences]

Trying to figure this out as I attempt to evolve as a gambler. I'm typically anxious to get the ball rolling on a season, but the more I look at my past results, the more I realize I need better data and more actual game analysis to hit any kind of stride and see a profit. I almost always start slow and in the red.

With that being said, a lot of gamblers feel like the early games are the best time to take advantage of soft lines and blind spots in the gameplan of the books and oddsmakers.

What works best for you? Playing a lot of games early in a season and then slowing down when the lines get sharper, or the other way around?

[t-wizzle]

I always lay low early on. Only make a big play when I feel I have a good handle on a team(s).

Even if situation, line movement, etc seem prime for a sizeable play, I'll hold off early in the year.

[t-wizzle]

As far as volume, generally keep that down as well.

[leetreaper]

Trying to figure this out as I attempt to evolve as a gambler. I'm typically anxious to get the ball rolling on a season, but the more I look at my past results, the more I realize I need better data and more actual game analysis to hit any kind of stride and see a profit. I almost always start slow and in the red.

With that being said, a lot of gamblers feel like the early games are the best time to take advantage of soft lines and blind spots in the gameplan of the books and oddsmakers.

What works best for you? Playing a lot of games early in a season and then slowing down when the lines get sharper, or the other way around?

I don't change my patterns at all, plays I like better I increase the units otherwise it's a flat bet. In terms of how many games, if you see a lot of soft lines, of course you take advantage of them, as easy as that.

[leetreaper]

I always lay low early on. Only make a big play when I feel I have a good handle on a team(s).

Even if situation, line movement, etc seem prime for a sizeable play, I'll hold off early in the year.

As far as volume, generally keep that down as well.

Not sure how you qualified to give an advice with -ROI in every sport...???

[No coincidences]

I don't change my patterns at all, plays I like better I increase the units otherwise it's a flat bet. In terms of how many games, if you see a lot of soft lines, of course you take advantage of them, as easy as that.

Well, "soft" lines are subjective. Easy to spot after the fact, but not always easy to identify beforehand.

For instance, Michigan State is +12 at Oregon this week. Soft line, or are the books really that comfortable with the Ducks as DD favorites against the Top-10 Rose Bowl champions?

[Bluehorseshoe]

It depends on how much YOU depend on the oddsmakers lines being accurate. If you have your own numbers....attack.

[Sam Odom]

What Bluehorseshoe said...

Seize the opportunities whenever they appear... 1st week or 10th

[jjgold]

I'm laying low partly because I don't have much money

Seems like a good strategy though the first five weeks to lay low

Not many guys can telephone line is wrong/off

[t-wizzle]

Well, "soft" lines are subjective. Easy to spot after the fact, but not always easy to identify beforehand.

For instance, Michigan State is +12 at Oregon this week. Soft line, or are the books really that comfortable with the Ducks as DD favorites against the Top-10 Rose Bowl champions?

It's Oregon though. They are kind of in a different category. Michigan State fits the mold of teams that give them trouble but regardless, the line seems right to me.

[No coincidences]

It's Oregon though. They are kind of in a different category. Michigan State fits the mold of teams that give them trouble but regardless, the line seems right to me.

I anticipated anywhere from a 7.5 to a 9.5.

Therein lies the problem, though -- do I feel like I know more than the professionals who establish these lines and pounce on MSU +12, or do I trust the guys who do this for a living and pass? Some see "value" and "soft lines" beforehand, only to get beat down by the knowledge of oddsmakers. I'd still rather side with the books than trust the player (myself included) in the long run.

[Sam Odom]

I'm laying low partly because I don't have much money

jj , let you and Sammy go partners ?!

we'll split a 20.00 8 team parlay on Sat & on Sunday each week... $40 total - $20 each

You pick Sat NCAAFB , Sammy will pick NFL

Book them with CRIS so if we hit we will know we'll get paid

[leetreaper]

Well, "soft" lines are subjective. Easy to spot after the fact, but not always easy to identify beforehand.

For instance, Michigan State is +12 at Oregon this week. Soft line, or are the books really that comfortable with the Ducks as DD favorites against the Top-10 Rose Bowl champions?

Well, Spartans are expected to take a step back this season after losing so many key starters, especially on defense, also Ducks are historically strong at home early in the season, having said that I'd say the line should be 10 not more.

[leetreaper]

I anticipated anywhere from a 7.5 to a 9.5.

Therein lies the problem, though -- do I feel like I know more than the professionals who establish these lines and pounce on MSU +12, or do I trust the guys who do this for a living and pass? Some see "value" and "soft lines" beforehand, only to get beat down by the knowledge of oddsmakers. I'd still rather side with the books than trust the player (myself included) in the long run.

Yep, just posted that the line shouldn't be more than 10 but I'd just leave that game alone IMHO.

[t-wizzle]

I anticipated anywhere from a 7.5 to a 9.5.

Therein lies the problem, though -- do I feel like I know more than the professionals who establish these lines and pounce on MSU +12, or do I trust the guys who do this for a living and pass? Some see "value" and "soft lines" beforehand, only to get beat down by the knowledge of oddsmakers. I'd still rather side with the books than trust the player (myself included) in the long run.

On that game in particular, I think it's important to realize that the Michigan State defense lost some key players and may take a few weeks to reach the level it was at last year.

But like I was saying, Oregon is just in a category of its own. They could not play their best and still end up winning a game by 2+ TDs. I'd love to have seen this game last December as opposed to this September. Even later this season would be better.

[leetreaper]

On that game in particular, I think it's important to realize that the Michigan State defense lost some key players and may take a few weeks to reach the level it was at last year.

But like I was saying, Oregon is just in a category of its own. They could not play their best and still end up winning a game by 2+ TDs. I'd love to have seen this game last December as opposed to this September. Even later this season would be better.

Lol, you just posted EXACTLY what i posted 5 mins ago, are you RETARDED? Do you even have a brain? You can't make this shit up...

[t-wizzle]

Not even going to respond to this Leet guy.

Coin the college card is weak early in the year anyway. You kind of have to bet more obscure games in which I would presume you're using line movement mostly.

Btw I might take Oregon. I'd prefer MSU wins but I think they might lose bad. Just a tough spot here.

[t-wizzle]

While we're on the topic of this game though, what if MSU were to move to a single digit dog tomorrow? Do you then like them? The line would be where you thought it should have been and seemingly sharp money would be on them but you'd have missed the best numbers.

[Dollars2Donuts]

It is very sport dependant in my opinion.

There are so many factors that determine how long I will watch. In the NFL I believe there are less variables, plus they play a shorter season and play hard from Game #1, where the NHL and NBA are quite different. Another variable is the 'hot and cold' factor. I prefer to wait 10-15 games in the NHL and NBA to see where teams are in their own psyche. In the NFL teams tend to be less streaky and I feel better about betting right from week #1.

I also feel feel the same close to the end of the year....the last 20% of the year when certain teams have been eliminated and others are coasting along in a playoff position, things become a little tougher. For me personally, my best sport and time to place wagers are in the NBA from games 15 to games 65 or so. The real meat of the order and the most predictable IMO.

I will always try to identify perceived value and jump on it when I can.....but those are some of the guidelines that I use.

[Vegas39]

Well, "soft" lines are subjective. Easy to spot after the fact, but not always easy to identify beforehand.

For instance, Michigan State is +12 at Oregon this week. Soft line, or are the books really that comfortable with the Ducks as DD favorites against the Top-10 Rose Bowl champions?

If it was last years team line wouldn't be this high. But perception is MSU defense won't be as good .

[colleewobbles]

Definitely laying low and conserving ammunition until its better known where teams are at and this season how much the tighter penalty calling is gonna play out. Preseason was a nightmare of halting after every play to sort out a penalty. Games felt like they took 6 hours. I fell asleep on multiple occasions but.....that happens anyways in preseason (but more this year.)

I feel the "locating soft numbers" blindspots what have you is largely a thing of the past, a modern urban myth. We won't be standing in line at The Stardust overnight to get first crack at the lines anytime soon. Those days are gone forever. We are totally not in Kansas anymore as offshores follow Pinny to "the right line" fast. Just my thots but I am a cynic so maybe I'm wrong but I personally have no real clue what this weekend's games will bring so I'll approach with caution. Seattle game going correctly was very encouraging tho.

[colleewobbles]

Well, "soft" lines are subjective. Easy to spot after the fact, but not always easy to identify beforehand.

For instance, Michigan State is +12 at Oregon this week. Soft line, or are the books really that comfortable with the Ducks as DD favorites against the Top-10 Rose Bowl champions?

Line aint moved much. Open 11.5. Looks like everyone's fairly comfortable with it thus far...even givin' Spartans an additional point, since the open.

[colleewobbles]

I'm laying low partly because I don't have much money

What happened to your money? What'd you spend it on?

[Big Bear]

Lol, you just posted EXACTLY what i posted 5 mins ago, are you RETARDED? Do you even have a brain? You can't make this shit up...

maybe he didnt see your post. Maybe he was taking a long time typing.

dont give my boy T-Wizz any trouble

[colleewobbles]

Well, Spartans are expected to take a step back this season after losing so many key starters, especially on defense, also Ducks are historically strong at home early in the season, having said that I'd say the line should be 10 not more.

Exactly. What does one base thier "own number" on at this point with DEF lacking the dudes that one would need to....base a number on plus as stated before ITS OREGON. Best equipment on earth, training facilities Nutritionists Sports Psychologists Gurus who knows what all.

Single digit line here would have totally freaked me out. Theres some fairly sharp and longtime bettors saying Spartans could WIN this game though. By 1 (one) point. (Not many of them sayin this.) I don't know what to do. I wanna take STATE so BAD cuz they have been great to me as dogs. But this game is scary. To me it feels to easy and with the questions re: STATE DEF.

I don't know what to do. The smartest play for me would be the "LOVEFADE" which is where I fade myself. I run 60+% when I PLAY AGAINST plays which to me look easy like this one does. Thing is I don't generally have the discipline to do all season long cuz I psyche myself out cuz I get greedy and start seeing FALSE "LOVEPLAYS" so it gets tough.

I don't know what to do with this SPARTANS/DUCKS game. If anyone does I wish they'd tell me.

[leetreaper]

maybe he didnt see your post. Maybe he was taking a long time typing.

dont give my boy T-Wizz any trouble

You, SeaFukk and AirFukk are the most clueless and useless human beings ever, goddamn fukking SBR can't implement the function so i don't see you both post AT ALL...

[colleewobbles]

Lol, you just posted EXACTLY what i posted 5 mins ago, are you RETARDED? Do you even have a brain? You can't make this shit up...

On this game in particular Leetreaper, I think it's important that you realize that the Michigan State defense lost some key players and it may take a few weeks to reach the level the was at last year.

t-wizzle makes a valid point.

[Vegas39]

Exactly. What does one base thier "own number" on at this point with DEF lacking the dudes that one would need to....base a number on plus as stated before ITS OREGON. Best equipment on earth, training facilities Nutritionists Sports Psychologists Gurus who knows what all.

Single digit line here would have totally freaked me out. Theres some fairly sharp and longtime bettors saying Spartans could WIN this game though. By 1 (one) point. (Not many of them sayin this.) I don't know what to do. I wanna take STATE so BAD cuz they have been great to me as dogs. But this game is scary. To me it feels to easy and with the questions re: STATE DEF.

I don't know what to do. The smartest play for me would be the "LOVEFADE" which is where I fade myself. I run 60+% when I PLAY AGAINST plays which to me look easy like this one does. Thing is I don't generally have the discipline to do all season long cuz I psyche myself out cuz I get greedy and start seeing FALSE "LOVEPLAYS" so it gets tough.

I don't know what to do with this SPARTANS/DUCKS game. If anyone does I wish they'd tell me.

Even though Michigan St D down from last year a few things worry me about this one.

Oregon run D looked shaky at times last week, guess partly due to winning big but it still worries me

Ifo Ekpre-Olmu and his bad ankle they need him close to 100%

The offense will put points up IMO its what can D do to stop MSU

[colleewobbles]

What if MSU were to move to a single digit dog tomorrow? Do you then like them?

I would HATE THAT. Just thinking about it I can feel my chest tightening up with that like "Jumpy" feeling of absolute terror out of sheerly NOWHERE.

Don't even suggest that happening twizzle. I'm already freaked out by this game enough as it is now.

[colleewobbles]

Even though Michigan St D down from last year a few things worry me about this one.

Oregon run D looked shaky at times last week, guess partly due to winning big but it still worries me

Ifo Ekpre-Olmu and his bad ankle they need him close to 100%

The offense will put points up IMO its what can D do to stop MSU

I'm dreading getting down to "Brass Tax" on this one doing the due diligence cuz I totally am incapable of being OBJECTIVE with MICHIGAN STATE cuz literally.....I've done better with them ATS by far than any other team and historically.....they are known as a great dog.

So I appreciate the honest and objective input from someone with a hugeass yellow O in their avatar

My best play might be to not mess with this game at all but its really really tempting. I assure you that the book knows that too which bodes well for your boys in Green or.......are they in Grey/Black this week lol Phil ass fuggin Knight. Every school should have one.

[Big Bear]

You, SeaFukk and AirFukk are the most clueless and useless human beings ever, goddamn fukking SBR can't implement the function so i don't see you both post AT ALL...

using the lords name in vain

[Vegas39]

I'm dreading getting down to "Brass Tax" on this one doing the due diligence cuz I totally am incapable of being OBJECTIVE with MICHIGAN STATE cuz literally.....I've done better with them ATS by far than any other team and historically.....they are known as a great dog.

So I appreciate the honest and objective input from someone with a hugeass yellow O in their avatar

My best play might be to not mess with this game at all but its really really tempting. I assure you that the book knows that too which bodes well for your boys in Green or.......are they in Grey/Black this week lol Phil ass fuggin Knight. Every school should have one.

Yellow Jerseys this week is rumor but subject to change

One trend will be broken . MSU has gone 28 games without allowing more than 28 points. Oregon has scored more than 31 in 41 of last 42 at Autzen

If anything will play the over