[Timmay]

What's the return if you get 50/50 on your picks?


Thanks

[Gee]

You're kidding right?

It is FREE money if you can break even on your wagers, but if you're literally 50/50 during the rollover period at -110, you'll almost certainly lose any bonus on vig.

Bonuses are +EV for all gamblers. But most gamblers are -EV, so it doesn't matter.

[rm18]

it is +EV if you go allin allowing you to get more bonuses if you lose but not if you make small bets

[Optional]

What's the return if you get 50/50 on your picks?


Thanks

A freeplay is worth around 65% of the notional value.

Because you can do this with it: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett...ue-calculator/

If you pick at 50% then you will lose around 5% of your turnover. So just to keep it simple, say you would expect to lose about 50% of your deposit after rolling it over 10 times.

So if 65% of the freeplay is more than 50% of the deposit amount, it could be seen as a +EV deal in those circumstances.


But that all goes out the window if you don't size your bets to match the deposit amount. Which is what a book would rely on us not doing to bring that sort of offer back to being +EV for them.

[Timmay]

You're kidding right?

It is FREE money if you can break even on your wagers, but if you're literally 50/50 during the rollover period at -110, you'll almost certainly lose any bonus on vig.

Bonuses are +EV for all gamblers. But most gamblers are -EV, so it doesn't matter.

So there's no free money out there?

[Timmay]

it is +EV if you go allin allowing you to get more bonuses if you lose but not if you make small bets

So if I drop $100 and they match it with an 80x rolloff... I just bet $200 each hand? Or what?
I don't get it.

Oh!!! Woops... I was thinking casino bonus. Yea, sports..... What do you mean allowing to get more bonus?

[Timmay]

A freeplay is worth around 65% of the notional value.

Because you can do this with it: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett...ue-calculator/

If you pick at 50% then you will lose around 5% of your turnover. So just to keep it simple, say you would expect to lose about 50% of your deposit after rolling it over 10 times.

So if 65% of the freeplay is more than 50% of the deposit amount, it could be seen as a +EV deal in those circumstances.


But that all goes out the window if you don't size your bets to match the deposit amount. Which is what a book would rely on us not doing to bring that sort of offer back to being +EV for them.

What do you mean by sizing your bets?

Yea, I mean if I lost 1/2 and won 1/2. The juice would destroy me.

[Gee]

So there's no free money out there?

No, it is free money.

You just need to be a winning or break even gambler as well (52.4ish% at -110), which not many people can do.

[Timmay]

I just want to go 50/50 and open a new book and get a bonus that'll give me better than the juice lol.


I keep hearing these 10x rollovers and they'll double your money. It sounds like if you blind fold yourself and flip coins.... You should come ahead. What am I missing?

[Big Bear]

Never take a bonus. The rollover is not worth it.

[The Kraken]

Never take a bonus. The rollover is not worth it.

[Big Bear]

kraken whats funny?

when i place a wager i want my fukkin payout within 48hours.

i'll be damned if i wait on a fukkn rollover. Hell, that might be okay if you never plan on cashin out and you only bet $20 a game or some shit like that.

[JoeyBagels]

Sports betting is an enigma. It's complicated and not complicated at the same time depending on how you approach it. When most people think of sports betting they think of handicappers. People looking to WIN bets, beat the market through handicapping, line shopping and/or modelling. Then you have people that are what is called relative value players (it's what I think Stanford Wong calls them in his book). They look to beat SB through promotions, contests, arbing etc. Sometimes they are called bonus whores.

A sports bettor doesn't have to be just a handicapper or just a bonus whore. With sharp advantage gamblers there's often lots of overlap but one can be a straight handicapper/modeller and be a winner and someone can know nothing about handicapping/modelling and just bonus whore and be a winner. It's better to be both though.

So basically bonus whoring is a subset of sports betting really. Here's are a few ways taking a bonus can work for a sharp player:

1) Take a bonus at a book and straight bet all your wagers at that book hoping to clear rollover. It's not a great way to exploit bonuses but if you can beat the book it's free money as long as you don't mind having money tied up at one book with RO.

2) Exploiting the way sportsbook bonuses are credited. Unlike some Casino/Poker bonuses that are released incrementally on action SB bonuses are usually credited immediately as cash or FP with RO attached.
RO is usually the deciding factor for most people but remember if you lose the bet your balance (original deposit + Bonus & RO) are wiped clean.

So for example what you can do is Deposit at 2 books (BOOK A + BOOK B) . BOOK A is a good book like Pinnacle/Exchange with smaller overround on markets and B is a bonus book. You look to bet a heavy favorite with Book A and a large dog with Book B on the same game, so ideally you win the bet outright on book A and your balance + RO at book B is effectively negated. You want lines on games as close as possible so you lose the less possible VIG while taking into account you want a heavy implied odds favorite on one side (BOOK A).

Now there are some problems you have to take into account. You have to know the specific rules of how the bonuses are credited, the specific game match rules so one side isn't voided unexpectedly to you and causes you to lose both bets etc. You also have to take into account that things happen and maybe you'll Lose at Book A as a heavy favorite and have a big balance to RO at book B. Ideally you only use this method with small bonuses relative to your overall bankroll so you have the means to clear the RO. You have to be playing at BOOK B's that have low bankruptcy risk (or be willing to stomach the payout risk otherwise) since you can get stuck with a large balance at a book that is less then stellar (Book B's).

3) The Ideal way to exploit bonuses IMO is by playing bonus books against themselves using the above method. So you deposit at say 3 books taking a bonus at each one. Cash bonuses are straight forward but for FP you can do a 2/3 team parlay method (depending on the bonus conditions) to maximize FP bonus and structure it so that the favorite side of parlays are all placed at a book you want to RO at. Then you try to get all balances to end up at that 1 book you chose, looking for bets that have the lowest VIG possible between these 3 books or structuring teasers/parlays so that they end up at the place you choose. Arbing out soft lines can save you money while doing this as well. This method is surprisingly effective as it camouflages your action to the books and they can't really label you as sharp per se. So you extend your playing time at these books moreso than straight betting.

People have been doing it for years and it's profitable. So it's just too complicated a question saying to take a bonus or not take a bonus. It depends what you want to do and BE as a gambler. My advice for guys just looking for action is to take a bonus at 1 book and bet there.

[Timmay]

kraken whats funny?

when i place a wager i want my fukkin payout within 48hours.

i'll be damned if i wait on a fukkn rollover. Hell, that might be okay if you never plan on cashin out and you only bet $20 a game or some shit like that.

Yea, but if you're betting a lot..... Doesn't the rollover complete faster? Why do you need to pull it out so fast?
It might be a good supplement to profit over the long haul.

[Timmay]

Sports betting is an enigma. It's complicated and not complicated at the same time depending on how you approach it. When most people think of sports betting they think of handicappers. People looking to WIN bets, beat the market through handicapping, line shopping and/or modelling. Then you have people that are what is called relative value players (it's what I think Stanford Wong calls them in his book). They look to beat SB through promotions, contests, arbing etc. Sometimes they are called bonus whores.

A sports bettor doesn't have to be just a handicapper or just a bonus whore. With sharp advantage gamblers there's often lots of overlap but one can be a straight handicapper/modeller and be a winner and someone can know nothing about handicapping/modelling and just bonus whore and be a winner. It's better to be both though.

So basically bonus whoring is a subset of sports betting really. Here's are a few ways taking a bonus can work for a sharp player:

1) Take a bonus at a book and straight bet all your wagers at that book hoping to clear rollover. It's not a great way to exploit bonuses but if you can beat the book it's free money as long as you don't mind having money tied up at one book with RO.

2) Exploiting the way sportsbook bonuses are credited. Unlike some Casino/Poker bonuses that are released incrementally on action SB bonuses are usually credited immediately as cash or FP with RO attached.
RO is usually the deciding factor for most people but remember if you lose the bet your balance (original deposit + Bonus & RO) are wiped clean.

So for example what you can do is Deposit at 2 books (BOOK A + BOOK B) . BOOK A is a good book like Pinnacle/Exchange with smaller overround on markets and B is a bonus book. You look to bet a heavy favorite with Book A and a large dog with Book B on the same game, so ideally you win the bet outright on book A and your balance + RO at book B is effectively negated. You want lines on games as close as possible so you lose the less possible VIG while taking into account you want a heavy implied odds favorite on one side (BOOK A).

Now there are some problems you have to take into account. You have to know the specific rules of how the bonuses are credited, the specific game match rules so one side isn't voided unexpectedly to you and causes you to lose both bets etc. You also have to take into account that things happen and maybe you'll Lose at Book A as a heavy favorite and have a big balance to RO at book B. Ideally you only use this method with small bonuses relative to your overall bankroll so you have the means to clear the RO. You have to be playing at BOOK B's that have low bankruptcy risk (or be willing to stomach the payout risk otherwise) since you can get stuck with a large balance at a book that is less then stellar (Book B's).

3) The Ideal way to exploit bonuses IMO is by playing bonus books against themselves using the above method. So you deposit at say 3 books taking a bonus at each one. Cash bonuses are straight forward but for FP you can do a 2/3 team parlay method (depending on the bonus conditions) to maximize FP bonus and structure it so that the favorite side of parlays are all placed at a book you want to RO at. Then you try to get all balances to end up at that 1 book you chose, looking for bets that have the lowest VIG possible between these 3 books or structuring teasers/parlays so that they end up at the place you choose. Arbing out soft lines can save you money while doing this as well. This method is surprisingly effective as it camouflages your action to the books and they can't really label you as sharp per se. So you extend your playing time at these books moreso than straight betting.

People have been doing it for years and it's profitable. So it's just too complicated a question saying to take a bonus or not take a bonus. It depends what you want to do and BE as a gambler. My advice for guys just looking for action is to take a bonus at 1 book and bet there.

I want to be a bonus whore

I didn't really get understand the parlay deal. Do books really cut you off?
I guess if it's a small enough book they would.

So you think betting a big dog on the first bet to run up the amount is good at first?

If you take a heavy underdog and heavy favorite.... Arn't you paying a lot higher juice?


I'm just trying to think if you bet a big dog first and then heavy bets on heavy favorites to get a big handle to roll it off?

I just wasn't sure what was the best play.

[Bluehorseshoe]

kraken whats funny?

when i place a wager i want my fukkin payout within 48hours.

i'll be damned if i wait on a fukkn rollover. Hell, that might be okay if you never plan on cashin out and you only bet $20 a game or some shit like that.

You're going to stop gambling after two days?