1. #1
    homie1975
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    My first two College Football plays of 2014

    Thu, Aug 28: TEMPLE +15.5 at Vandy

    Fri, Aug 29: UNLV +23.5 at Arizona

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Temple is a team whose 2-10 record last yr is deceiving. of their ten losses, five were by 7 points or less, and another was by 9 pts and another by 10 pts. what does this mean? they play in close games and do not give up. they do not fold. they have year two HC matt rhule so they are more comfy now in the new schemes and a core of 13 returning starters incl an above avg qb named pj walker who has mobility and is accurate. he does not make many mistakes so he is a good qb to have on the road in game one.

    Vandy is a different story. they bring only 10 guys from a team that won 9 gms the past 2 yrs under coach franklin, who has since departed for greener (whiter) pastures of penn state. vandy also loses their starting qb, and two best pass catchers. the new coach mason inherits a much different team than the last two editions. i think it's safe to assume serious growing pains early on especially on offense.

    temple can very will win this game straight up as i expect them to be right there until the end with a chance to win in the 4th quarter. 15.5 points is beautiful here.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Unlv had gained confidence after last year's winning season and has bought into bobby hauck's MO. Even though nick sherry takes over at qb and is inexperienced, he is surrounded by veterans so that helps a lot for the new signal caller.

    As for zona they start their 3rd new qb in 3 years and even though Scroggins is talented they are pretty young on offense. Unlv and zona proximity means they recruit some of the same guys and of course zona gets most of them. A lot of rebels wish zona recruited them so this is a bit like when mac schools play the big 10, they are very fired up to beat schools that overlooked them in the recruiting process. it's about pride.

    I see a lazy sleepy Arizona win where the new guys on offense are just trying to get their feet wet. I don't see rich rod opening up the play book too much in this one as he has 3 fairly easy opponents before opening the pac 12 season on 9/20 vs cal.

    I think 23.5 pts us still a strong play as the margin should be about 13 to 17 pts on the zona win.

    UNLV stays within the # and acquits itself of last year's 58-13 home loss to zona in sin city
    Last edited by homie1975; 08-07-14 at 08:53 PM. Reason: correction on misspellings as i posted from mobile

  2. #2
    uvarunthetable
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    I like the Temple pick, not a huge fan of the UNLV pick as Arizona can put points up in a hurry (and Rich Rod always likes doing so) and I think UNLV just doesn't have much talent anywhere. BOL though

  3. #3
    texhooper
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    i agree with uva but whatever, i hope you go 2-0.

  4. #4
    jjgold
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    Good write ups Homie

    I'll probably tail these two because you made sense

  5. #5
    homie1975
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    Uva, Tex and JJ Gold:

  6. #6
    beech630
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    I loveeeeeeeee rolling with Temple. Guys always seem to cover.

  7. #7
    BigdaddyQH
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    Temple has a defense which can only be described as terrible. Their defense has no pass rush and no secondary to speak of. Their offense returns just one starter on the line, and has very little experience. Their special teams need serious work. Vandy must find a way to scoere on offense. They return the line, but little more. The defense must replace all 4 starters in the secondary. They go from a 4-3 to a 3-4, so players are learning new positions. This game features one of the worst teams in the AAC against one of the worst teams in the SEC. This is a definate pass for me.

    I have already discussed Arizona vs UNLV. The biggest problem that UNLV has, other than simply being out manned and out gunned, is that they failed to meet NCAA APR minimum scores, so no post season game for them. With the chance to reach the post season two times in a row for the first time in school history now gone, will the team care? Arizona laid 58 against UNLV in Vegas last season. RichRod is starting Jesse Scoggins, but he certainly does not have the job wrapped up. Personally I am not a big fan of Scoggins, but RichRod will let him go in this game and give him a chance to cement his starting position down. If RichRod wants to run the score up, he easily can, but as Homie points out, he may want to keep some offense under wraps, even though he does ot play a competitive team until Oregon on October 2. The problem is the line, at 23 1/2. I would much rather have the 24 that you can now get at most Vegas shops.
    Last edited by BigdaddyQH; 08-08-14 at 01:35 PM.

  8. #8
    Vegas39
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Temple has a defense which can only be described as terrible. Their defense has no pass rush and no secondary to speak of. Their offense returns just one starter on the line, and has very little experience. Their special teams need serious work. Vandy must find a way to scoere on offense. They return the line, but little more. The defense must replace all 4 starters in the secondary. They go from a 4-3 to a 3-4, so players are learning new positions. This game features one of the worst teams in the AAC against one of the worst teams in the SEC. This is a definate pass for me.

    I have already discussed Arizona vs UNLV. The biggest problem that UNLV has, other than simply being out manned and out gunned, is that they failed to meet NCAA APR minimum scores, so no post season game for them. With the chance to reach the post season two times in a row now gone, will the team care? Arizona laid 58 against UNLV in Vegas last season. RichRod is starting Jesse Scoggins, but he certainly does not have the job wrapped up. Personally I am not a big fan of Scoggins, but RichRod will let him go in this game and give him a chance to cement his starting position down. If RichRod wants to run the score up, he easily can, but as Homie points out, he may want to keep some offense under wraps, even though he does ot play a competitive team until Oregon on October 2. The problem is the line, at 23 1/2. I would much rather have the 24 that you can now get at most Vegas shops.
    As I said in his other thread UNLV is now bowl eligible . NCAA reversed decision for whatever reason

  9. #9
    James Marques
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    Plus, UNLV returns one of the best secondaries in the conference. That'll probably be negated by the lack of depth on the DL and the lousy pass rush, but secondary is not an issue. They return a lot of guys who were starters but got hurt. Two very solid corners specifically.

  10. #10
    frogsrangers
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    I dislike both plays.

  11. #11
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas39 View Post
    As I said in his other thread UNLV is now bowl eligible . NCAA reversed decision for whatever reason
    I heard that UNLV lost their appeal. Do you have a thread about the reversal? I know that UNLV was crawling on their bellies to get the NCAA to reverse their decision, but the NCAA is very tough.

  12. #12
    Vegas39
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    I heard that UNLV lost their appeal. Do you have a thread about the reversal? I know that UNLV was crawling on their bellies to get the NCAA to reverse their decision, but the NCAA is very tough.

    posted a link in Homies pac-12 thread last night

  13. #13
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by frogsrangers View Post
    I dislike both plays.
    Np. To each their own. I just hope I have better luck than your 12 different nba scripts did this year

  14. #14
    Ralphie Halves
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    I think UNLV is nowhere near the team last year when they got blown out at home. Caleb Herring was a godsend, after Sherry flamed out big time. Tim Cornett kept everyone honest, and our line had experience. None of those things are that way now. That secondary returning will come into play against MWC teams, but it's the same group that got torched by Zona last year.

    We had the best team we've had in over a decade last year, and still got blown out at home. We don't have anywhere near that same team now. I'm on Arizona, and Arizona 1H.

  15. #15
    laclippers504
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    $$$

  16. #16
    homie1975
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    Adding: Rutgers +8 at wash state.

    Both teams have returning coaches, qbs and plenty of supporting help. Long flight for Rutgers but getting more than 8 pts in your corner with this team in this spot is good value

  17. #17
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    Adding: Rutgers +8 at wash state.

    Both teams have returning coaches, qbs and plenty of supporting help. Long flight for Rutgers but getting more than 8 pts in your corner with this team in this spot is good value
    This game starts at 7:00 pm PDT. That is 10:00 pm EDT. Way too late of a start for Rutgers to hang in in the 2nd half. Wazzu is the play here. If you already took 8, you wagered too soon. The line is already up to 9 1/2 at some Vegas shops and will probably hit 10 by game time. The Off shore Books have not gotten there yet, but that is why they are off shore books. Washington State finally made it to a bowl game last season, while Rutgers could well be the worst team in the Big 10 East, and #13 out of the 14 Big Ten teams overall.
    Last edited by BigdaddyQH; 08-12-14 at 03:27 PM.

  18. #18
    frogsrangers
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    This game starts at 7:00 pm PDT. That is 10:00 pm EDT. Way too late of a start for Rutgers to hang in in the 2nd half. Wazzu is the play here. If you already took 8, you wagered too soon. The line is already up to 9 1/2 at some Vegas shops and will probably hit 10 by game time. The Off shore Books have not gotten there yet, but that is why they are off shore books. Washington State finally made it to a bowl game last season, while Rutgers could well be the worst team in the Big 10 East, and #13 out of the 14 Big Ten teams overall.



    Another game I am staying away from... I have it capped as Washington State -9, no value at all on this one, there are better games to play

  19. #19
    jjgold
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    I wonder if a good idea to bet games this early???

  20. #20
    Biff41
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    Reply

    Good info Homie.

  21. #21
    BigdaddyQH
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    The only reason to wager on games this early is if you think there will be enough of a line movement to make a difference in the outcome of the game.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Al Masters

  22. #22
    scumbag
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    You mean effect the outcome of the bet.

  23. #23
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by scumbag View Post
    You mean effect the outcome of the bet.
    Exactly. As far as I know, there really has not been that much movement. Most games have moved a point or 1 1/2 points, but that is about it. Off Shore, UCLA has dropped from -23 1/2 to -21 1/2 at Virginia, but that is still above 21, so that is not enough to really make a difference. This is a bit unusual. Normally, the books get together around Wednesday of the week in question to make thing pretty much equal. This is a bit early, seeing as we still have 16 days until the start of the season. (Sorry, I cannot count Georgia State's game as the legitimate start of the season).

  24. #24
    homie1975
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    The card thus far:

    Thu, Aug 28: TEMPLE +15.5 at Vandy
    RUTGERS +8 at Washington St

    Fri, Aug 29: UNLV +23.5 at Arizona

  25. #25
    BigdaddyQH
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    I can see 1-2 there. You really think that the Pac 12 is not that good. That could be a huge mistake.

  26. #26
    Kopi
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    marcus mariota to win the heisman take it to the bank

  27. #27
    Roy Halladay
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    Agreed on them Owls.

  28. #28
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    I can see 1-2 there. You really think that the Pac 12 is not that good. That could be a huge mistake.
    i think the pac 12 is quite good. again, 9 out of 12 returning qb's and a who's who of head coaching names. i just think wazzu and zona are giving too many pts is all

  29. #29
    homie1975
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    The pac 12 has more good returning qbs than any conf in the Country. It's the defenses I question but Stanford, usc, and UCLA could have 3 of the better ones in the country

  30. #30
    texhooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kopi View Post
    marcus mariota to win the heisman take it to the bank
    i don't know who will win the heisman, but he won't. although he may deserve it. i love him personally. but his numbers will be seen as inflated due to the offense he plays in.

  31. #31
    Vegas39
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    Quote Originally Posted by texhooper View Post
    i don't know who will win the heisman, but he won't. although he may deserve it. i love him personally. but his numbers will be seen as inflated due to the offense he plays in.
    Partly agree and playing on west coast doesn't help but think they need to be undefeated for him to have a legitimate shot

  32. #32
    BSJ
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    love the temple play BOL

  33. #33
    Al Masters
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    How do you decide you like a game 3 weeks before it starts, so many
    things can occur between now and then?

    injuries,weather etc etc etc

    Only real reason to bet now is cause you really believe the line will move
    getting you the better number now,but no one really can know that with 100%
    accuracy.
    Last edited by Al Masters; 08-14-14 at 10:36 PM.

  34. #34
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by Al Masters View Post
    How do you decide you like a game 3 weeks before it starts, so many
    things can occur between now and then?

    injuries,weather etc etc etc

    Only real reason to bet now is cause you really believe the line will move
    getting you the better number now,but no one really can know that with 100%
    accuracy.
    While what you say is true, remember that the odds of something occuring to hurt the team that you wagered on are the EXACT same as the odds of something occuring to hurt the opposition. You said that the only reason to wager now is to get a better line in case the line moves, and no one can predict that with 100% accuracy. While this may be true, if you cannot predict this with 75% accuracy (assuming no injuries or suspensions), you are in the wrong game. Successful players trust their instincts, which are much better than the people who lose. You just have to have thagt little something extra. Call it a 6th sense if you will. You cannot learn it. It is either there, or it is not.

  35. #35
    homie1975
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    adding more plays. the card so far:

    Thu, Aug 28: TEMPLE +15.5 at Vandy (this line is now 14)
    RUTGERS +8 at Washington St

    Fri, Aug 29: UNLV +23.5 at Arizona

    now i am adding:

    GEORGIA SOUTHERN +22.5 at NC State
    FAU +23 at Nebraska
    RICE +21 at Notre Dame
    WVA +26 v Bama
    ARKANSAS +21 at Auburn
    at HAWAII +15.5 v Washington

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