[stevenash]

I believe Baltimore is primed to make a move.

Even though I did not post it because I was busy with real life things like work and stuff, I made nice coin with the O's over Nuno because O's hurt LHP.
Then yesterday the Japanese import did not phase them.

Adam Jones and Nelson Cruz destroy LHP, made Nuno their personal meat puppets.
Orioles looked good this weekend in NYC, and I think they will beat the White Sox 2 out of 3
The series price isn't posted yet, but Sale is a good fade tonight.

I'm fading Sale tonight, backing BALTIMORE +110

Reasons to back Balty.
1) They looked good against NYY this past weekend.

2) Hardy is starting to heat up, if Cruz and Adam Jones remain hot, a hot Hardy with Chris Davis makes the top six in that line up tough outs.

3)O's meat of the order hit LHP.

4) White Sox offense strikes out the most in the AL not named Houston.

5) White Sox offense does not hit LHP well. The Punch and Judy catcher Flowers does, Eaton hits LHP a little, but that's it, and those two are not game changers.

6) Chen, while not as talented as Sale is a tought lefty.
Across the board numbers are sound.
7-2 3.78 ERA pitching in that division/league is fine, 1.24 WH/IP is sound, 60/80 K/IP ratio, all sound, not rock soild, but sound steady numbers.

7) Won his last four decisions, not his fault 'pen let him down against TB, Oakland too.
Got ND's in those games.
Shut out Boston, (7 innings) Was sharp versus Oakland.

8) I like home bow-wows

BALTIMORE +110 2*


Yankees go up to Canada for a three gamer versus Blue Jays.
I like this kid Whitley, big league stuff, veteran poise for a kid, however, I think he gets raked tonight.
Joey Bats is out but Encarncion has been mashing, and the rest of the lineup shoould get theirs tonight.
Encarncion is on fire, nobody can keep him in the yard these days.

I would play Toronto, except they have a gas can (yes, the term gas-can applies to starters too)
Stroman is trash.
Yanks will get some too.

Game should sail over the posted nine runs even with out Bautista

Tampa Bay is buried, however I like Cobb to get things rolling against Pitt in that dungeon of a ball park in Florida.
Rays should make a minor move this week too, however they are too far back.
Volquez should get shelled by that singles and doubles hitting Ray offense.

Like Cobb tonight too, but not a ridiculous juice though.


Baltimore is the play

considering a Cobb -153/over 9 NYY parlay

[Simon Gruber]

keep fading the blue jays.

[stevenash]

keep fading the blue jays.

They had their run, KC too.

I'm still on the KC bandwagon, but, they better win tonight, Kershaw tommorrow, and even if he's off, Kershaw is a tough son of a bitch

[mitch51]

Thanks for these, Nash. Insightful, as always.

[You mad bro]

They had their run, KC too.

I'm still on the KC bandwagon, but, they better win tonight, Kershaw tommorrow, and even if he's off, Kershaw is a tough son of a bitch

tonight will be no easy going of a game neither for KC

[stevenash]

tonight will be no easy going of a game neither for KC

The whole series.
They need to show me something, or they are going to need another ten game run again

[RollinDo]

You're going with KC?
Just locked in Dodgers. I am total fade material except on Unders at this point.
Maybe I should play KC +1?

[konck]

Its hard to fade Sale he has only 1 start thats not quailty in his last 10 they are only hitting .171 vs him his whips are .075
And you DO NOT get the free pass with this guy last 36 Inning his k's to walks is amazing 46 k's 3 walks and im not a
Wei Yin Chen fan on top of all that If I bet against Sale I want more than ev But GL here Stevie usually is sharp sometimes
you get that feeling
All that being said I also dont like being on the public side against a guy who can pitch

I really dont like the whole card today

[RollinDo]

With Sale and Chen, I expect a low - scoring game through at least 7 innings.
Both teams are in bottom 5 in runs per inning vs lefties.
I like Under 4 (1st 5) instead of picking a side.
I would lean O's though in a tight game and bullpen adv with them.

[stevenash]

You're going with KC?
Just locked in Dodgers. I am total fade material except on Unders at this point.
Maybe I should play KC +1?

No, not KC
Baltimore.

[stevenash]

All that being said I also dont like being on the public side against a guy who can pitch

I really dont like the whole card today

With reverse line movement Balty +110 down to +101 and public likes Sale
And the card stinks today, you are right.

Cobb, not at 151 though

[konck]

I do think the price is right on Whitley +113 though he has a nice arm nothing great.
When they made Stroman a starter he actually pitched well for 3 games then the last game
the Yankess really worked this kid The only real damage was a 2 run bomb by Gardner
But the pitch count was at 98 and he didnt get to finish the 4th. Stromans other 3 starts
are quality starts......Yanks worked him and didnt chase the low pitches this kid didnt give
up walks but that game he did 3 in 3 innings
Interesting game to say the least here but I will take plus money Stromans numbers are horrid
but mostly because of 2 relief innings he gave up 11 hits an 8 runs in 3 innings.
Still he is only 23 and I think the Yanks will be in his head I expect Stroman to throw strikes
early to combat what happened last time and the Yanks may jump on those early strikes

[No coincidences]

I don't understand the Balty line. It had me spooked. No reason for the O's to be home dogs against any pitcher given the guys surrounding Sale. Feel like the + number might be there for a reason.

[konck]

With reverse line movement Balty +110 down to +101 and public likes Sale
And the card stinks today, you are right.

Cobb, not at 151 though

Ummm Balt going from +110 to +basically ev means the publicis betting Balt its like 58%-63% where I track

[No coincidences]

With reverse line movement Balty +110 down to +101 and public likes Sale
And the card stinks today, you are right.

Cobb, not at 151 though

You sure about that? I highly doubt there are more people backing the White Sox than the O's in this spot. I'd guess it's probably 50/50.

[jjgold]

Too early to tell

Need to watch line movement

Pros do it

[konck]

I was just going to make a small rd robin tonight but if I see Nasher or Benny touting a game before I bet I wont bet against what they like
Gotta give those guys capping credit (also throw Tdaddy in there)

[stevenash]

You can get +200 Balty run line.

Feeling here is, one of the two lefty killers (Cruz, Adam Jones) parks one, Balty wins by a crooked number.

Oh and case you are wondering.

Adam Jones v. LHP .391
Nelson Cruz v. LHP .455
Chris Davis has 13 LHP home runs (2013 - 2014)

This is Chicago versus LHP
Cuban Abreu is .171 on four of his 21 HR's have come from a lefty

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/repor...r=&pitchCount=

[Simon Gruber]

They had their run, KC too.

I'm still on the KC bandwagon, but, they better win tonight, Kershaw tommorrow, and even if he's off, Kershaw is a tough son of a bitch

I favor KC because at least they have a solid rotation. The Jays rotation is built on twigs and I don't see much in the bullpen either tbh. KC also has some solid bats like Gordon, Perez, and Cain.

[farmhouse1]

Sale vs chen... Sale will alwasy be favored over a rather unknow like chen.... But if you look at his numbers they are very impressive... Chris sale is alright i mean hes going to have a very tough time tonight going up against a very dangerous and power hitting orioles lineup.... Chen is a solod pitcher in my opinion and with that balty lineup ill fade sale tonight...

[Down_Goes Bookie]

Chris Davis not in the Os lineup tonight.

[KRIT]

I agree with No Coincidences, I think O's may be a dog for a reason. Don't see any reason for them to be a dog, even with a stud pitcher like Sale going against them.

[spargament]

awesome write up. with you on the majority of these.

[spargament]

Uh, just one note actually. Reason that line is probably moving is because Chris Davis is a healthy scratch today for the Orioles. That under is looking better and better. Cruz, Jones and Hardy still gonna be threats, but I wanted to see Davis in that lineup too.

[Monitor-Tan]

GL Nasher, also like Balty and Toronto.

Rasmus sitting at the 5 spot might be very dangerous

[stevenash]

GL Nasher, also like Balty and Toronto.

Rasmus sitting at the 5 spot might be very dangerous

Thanks

35000 salary cap, I had to go cheap someplace
Went cheap with Schumaker.

The three Cards should do some damage I hope

P	Alex Cobb TAM v PIT
C	Yadier Molina STL @ COL
1B	Matt Adams STL @ COL
2B	Skip Schumaker CIN @ CHC
3B	Todd Frazier CIN @ CHC
SS	Troy Tulowitzki COL v STL
OF	Colby Rasmus TOR v NYY
OF	Allen Craig STL @ COL
OF	Jayson Werth WAS @ MIL

[Monitor-Tan]

A lot riding on that STL/COL game for you, should be plenty of hits/runs to go around

Like Molina/Adams/Frazier/Rasmus.

Question for you Nasher, why Jason Werth? Any particular reason for cap space?

[Monitor-Tan]

Keep an eye out on that weather for the Rockies game, u don't want to have such high stack with questionable weather

[JMon]

Balt is my fav play, bol nash

[Big Bear]

I believe Baltimore is primed to make a move.

Even though I did not post it because I was busy with real life things like work and stuff, I made nice coin with the O's over Nuno because O's hurt LHP.
Then yesterday the Japanese import did not phase them.

Adam Jones and Nelson Cruz destroy LHP, made Nuno their personal meat puppets.
Orioles looked good this weekend in NYC, and I think they will beat the White Sox 2 out of 3
The series price isn't posted yet, but Sale is a good fade tonight.

I'm fading Sale tonight, backing BALTIMORE +110

Reasons to back Balty.
1) They looked good against NYY this past weekend.

2) Hardy is starting to heat up, if Cruz and Adam Jones remain hot, a hot Hardy with Chris Davis makes the top six in that line up tough outs.

3)O's meat of the order hit LHP.

4) White Sox offense strikes out the most in the AL not named Houston.

5) White Sox offense does not hit LHP well. The Punch and Judy catcher Flowers does, Eaton hits LHP a little, but that's it, and those two are not game changers.

6) Chen, while not as talented as Sale is a tought lefty.
Across the board numbers are sound.
7-2 3.78 ERA pitching in that division/league is fine, 1.24 WH/IP is sound, 60/80 K/IP ratio, all sound, not rock soild, but sound steady numbers.

7) Won his last four decisions, not his fault 'pen let him down against TB, Oakland too.
Got ND's in those games.
Shut out Boston, (7 innings) Was sharp versus Oakland.

8) I like home bow-wows

BALTIMORE +110 2*


Yankees go up to Canada for a three gamer versus Blue Jays.
I like this kid Whitley, big league stuff, veteran poise for a kid, however, I think he gets raked tonight.
Joey Bats is out but Encarncion has been mashing, and the rest of the lineup shoould get theirs tonight.
Encarncion is on fire, nobody can keep him in the yard these days.

I would play Toronto, except they have a gas can (yes, the term gas-can applies to starters too)
Stroman is trash.
Yanks will get some too.

Game should sail over the posted nine runs even with out Bautista

Tampa Bay is buried, however I like Cobb to get things rolling against Pitt in that dungeon of a ball park in Florida.
Rays should make a minor move this week too, however they are too far back.
Volquez should get shelled by that singles and doubles hitting Ray offense.

Like Cobb tonight too, but not a ridiculous juice though.


Baltimore is the play

considering a Cobb -153/over 9 NYY parlay

thanks Nasher you da man!

[Big Bear]

Chris Davis not in the Os lineup tonight.

vaganitis? how hard is it to play first base???

[mikmik]

I jumped on balty last night. Made a thread but no response.

[Big Bear]

I agree with No Coincidences, I think O's may be a dog for a reason. Don't see any reason for them to be a dog, even with a stud pitcher like Sale going against them.

yeah they are a dog b/c they are facing chris sale.

Angels won and they were a dog facing Darvish.

[jay89]

Betting against great pitchers like sale is never a solid bet, you just lay off and play another day. It's a long season folks, be patient and don't bet crazy on days with small cards

[stevenash]

A lot riding on that STL/COL game for you, should be plenty of hits/runs to go around

Like Molina/Adams/Frazier/Rasmus.

Question for you Nasher, why Jason Werth? Any particular reason for cap space?

Hits Garza hard.
Best option at 3200
Other options are Polanco, Ludwick, or Stubbs.