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Up-Down Theory Does It Work?
One of best Theory's that use is the ''Up-Down Theory''suggests that teams that played poorly one week should be due for a regression the next, while a team that played above itself will come back down to earth. However, the market usually corrects the other way, assuming that a team that played poorly is a “bad team” and will be equally bad or even worse the next week while a team that won will continue to play well or improve. When a team coming off a statistically anomalous “bad” game goes up against a team that played over its head the week prior, then you have a classic Up-Down situation.
For example, in Week 1 of the 2013 regular season Philadelphia blitzed Washington in a marquee road win. That same night San Diego played horribly in the second half while collapsing in a loss to Houston. The two teams played the following Sunday. And a spread that probably should’ve been 3.5 was inflated up to 7.5 because the assumption was that Philadelphia was trending up and San Diego was trending down. It was just the opposite. The Chargers bounced back (Up) while the Eagles slid back to reality (Down), and the result was an outright upset win for San Diego. Road favorite's are rarely a strong play for NFL bettors. But there are some teams that simply should never be favored when they play away from home. You never want to lay points on the road with teams that have a track record of wild inconsistency – turnovers, penalties, late-game meltdown, poor special teams, etc. These teams are usually enticing because of perceived “talent” advantages. But if they aren’t consistent and fundamentally sound, you don’t even want to think about betting on them away from home SBR members
Conclude my thread, I would like to share this thought with you SBR members. I’m sure you’ve seen them online, heard through sports betting forums or various other online outlets, those posts or banners flashing the attention grabbing headline of the best betting system, or winning sports betting system, or we win 90% of our sports picks. The reality is that 80% of the sports betting systems in the market don’t work, or unqualified. I would even go on the line to say it is closer to 90% and the factors that play into their prediction systems or methods are why the majority of NFL betters lose. The unfortunate case with the handicapper market is that it’s a saturated market of self-proclaimed sports betting professionals claiming to have the latest sports betting system that produces the best winning picks and giving away with free picks The unfortunate, and fortunate case of the sports betting and handicapper industry is that the 80/20 business school rule applies.The reality is that 80% of the sports betting systems in the market don’t work, or unqualified. I would even go on the line to say it is closer to 90% and the factors that play into their prediction systems or methods are why the majority of NFL betters lose. Good power rating are where to go, I use J.J. Bascus[ Reno N.V.] power rating analysis considered the best 80% true.
PS. I am always open to constructive criticism of my Threads & Discussions!!! Its all about sharing ideas with SBR members. Thanks for reading my thread SBR members[ Very good luck to you all in NFL season.
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Originally Posted by timbaland99
mother of fukking god ... where have you been for the last 5 years? you are an amazing poster buddy
