1. #1
    MR.HARRYtheHAT
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    The average bettor actually picks below 50%

    Originally Posted by KVB
    There was a time that, before those lines were massaged by bettors throughout the week, there used to be an early line. It was an overnight opening line that Vegas oddsmakers sent to a few, well respected, select professional sports bettors. These bettors would bet the line, with limits, which would then give bookmakers an idea of how to adjust the lines before releasing them to the public. This helped Vegas prepare to balance the line with the "sharps," just like your thread title says. Once released, betting centers like Louisiana, Chicago, and New York sent much of the action early while the rest of the nation caught up closer to game time.
    Now, with worldwide gambling so accessible, and so many opinions being read instantly at a place like Pinnacle, I wonder if this system is at work anymore. Bookmakers and oddsmakers are more or less one and the same anymore and they too may employ "sharps."
    Any thoughts Hat? Something to Consider KVB!!!! Assuming that the "juice" (the interest or vig) is 10% (i.e. you must wager $110 to win $100) you must win 11 out of 21 bets to break even, or 52.4%. This gives the house an edge of 4.5%. Hitting 11 out of 21 bets may sound easy to do, but if you have been wagering for some time now like me you know this is not. The average bettor actually picks below 50%. The difference between 50% and 60% does not sound extreme, but over the NFL season it could cost you difference between losing money and making a profit KVB. Many handicappers claim to be "hitting 80% during season" but I can guarantee that they can not do this on a consistent basis and over the long term. In 2013 season in NFL Bye Week Picks were 57% including 65% (11-6) on the 4* and 5* picks making it a very prosperous year! If you could consistently pick 55% you will significantly increase your original investment. Consistently picking 60% is like batting .400 in Major League Baseball KVB..
    Very Good Luck To You My Friend
    Hårr¥THëHÄT
    PS ....The Stat's are from J.J. Bascus[ Reno N.V.] power rating analysis considered the best 80% true.

  2. #2
    jjgold
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    Harry you are correct, its why you need to bet -106 or lower lines to gain an edge

  3. #3
    MR.HARRYtheHAT
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Harry you are correct, its why you need to bet -106 or lower lines to gain an edge
    I agree thanks for your comment with a reply////// Very Good Luck To You In NFL Season ~iigold~
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  4. #4
    ChalkyDog
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    I think that goes without saying. Just think of what the term average actually means, and then consider what % the best sports bettors among us hit.

    Below 50% seems very likely.

  5. #5
    MR.HARRYtheHAT
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChalkyDog View Post
    I think that goes without saying. Just think of what the term average actually means, and then consider what % the best sports bettors among us hit.

    Below 50% seems very likely.
    I agree thanks for your comment with a reply////// Very Good Luck To You In NFL Season

  6. #6
    MR.HARRYtheHAT
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    There is a fountain of youth: it is your mind, your talents, the creativity you bring to your life and the lives of people you like & Identify with. When you learn to tap this source, you will truly have defeated age."
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